JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 2/25/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 2/25/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:54

I don't look at any of them, really. I don't know if the study has been updated but it used to be that a big spike in spring slugging percentage correlated with a power boost. I'd keep an eye on big velocity changes in either direction for pitchers, though I'd bear in mind that guys do tend to ramp up as the spring goes on (February ain't the time to care), and while working in shorter bursts might air it out a bit more.

War2d2

12:57

Hi Jay! I’m leaving for Scottsdale in a week, and seeing five games (some combo of Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Guardos, Rangers). Anyone in particular I should keep an eye out for? I’m looking forward to seeing Matt Shaw. It was fun seeing Langford last year, though obviously that didn’t turn out how people hoped it would. Anyone else come to mind? Thanks for all you do!

Jay Jaffe

12:59

Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong are the highest-ranked prospects you're likely to see playing regularly for those teams. Dunno if the Rangers' Sebastian Walcott (no. 4 on our list) is in major league camp as he's only grazed Double-A, but obviously, he's another one if you can find him. Kumar Rocker should be around, and I bet it's still worth seeing Langford and Carter while you're at it.

Phil

1:01

True or False: Mookie Betts finishes the 2025 season as a shortstop

Jay Jaffe

1:01

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he moves later in the season to accommodate another acquisition or Edman being a better fit there.

Mr. Burrito

1:02

What's going to happen to Andy Pages? I would argue he's potentially better this year than Conforto and absolutely better than Taylor, but I might be high. The bigger question is if Pages is part of a mini-generation of prospects (Rushing, Frasso, Freeland) who might stall out because of the Dodgers' gloriously overstuffed roster. Am I wrong to fret?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

On that subject, the thing to remember about the Dodgers is that there are all kind of moving parts, and while today their preferred outfield alignment is Conforto-Edman-Teoscar, Conforto is injury-prone and Pages can play center, so a Teoscar-Pages-Betts alignment with Edman at SS isn't out of the question

Tim

1:05

Who would you have bat leadoff for the softball team that is the Phillies?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

If i were making out the lineup I'd probably flip their usual top two to have Trea Turner leading off and Kyle Schwarber batting second.

Guest

1:06

Is the ABS system going to depress catcher value even more moving forward? They're already underrepresented in the HOF (I think, I haven't done the math), but it SEEMED like voters were starting to come around to appreciate fielding and esp pitch framing as part of catcher value

Jay Jaffe

1:07

Catchers are underrepresented in the Hall but framing *raises* their value, and the ABS challenge system that's on the way isn't going to cut into it the way an all-robo system would.

Jim

1:08

Given the O's lack of moves to replace Burnes, how do you think things stand in the AL East? Is it a Yankees/Red Sox contest, or are the O's still neck and neck with them?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

Right now the division looks pretty packed, with a 6-win spread from top to bottom in our Playoff Odds standings, with the Yankees at 87.2 wins the Red Sox at 84.6, the Orioles at 83.1, the Jays at 81.8 and Rays at 81.2. I like the offseasons of the Yankees and Red Sox much more than what the other have (and mostly haven't) done so I wouldn't be surprised if things shake out that way, but i don't think it will take a lot for those standings to get shaken up.

Ben

1:11

How many more pitcher injuries before someone meets the Padres asking price for Cease?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

(I kid. I have no idea!)

Jim

1:11

Chris Taylor also has an assignment bonus if traded. Like $2M.

Jay Jaffe

1:11

Noted, thanks.

Matt VW

1:11

I know this isn't your usual beat, but any thoughts on what the ESPN MLB opt-out portends about the future availability of the sport?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Joe Sheehan had an excellent newsletter piece yesterday. You can see a couple of fragments here https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3liwqrrulvs24 but you have to subscribe to see the whole thing (well worth it IMO).

While there are other alternatives for MLB to stream/air games via Apple, TBS, and Amazon, none of them has the footprint that ESPN does, and I suspect that the two sides will probably find a smaller deal that keeps them working together in some capacity. I do think, as noted in the clip that I posted, that this does not bode well for the owners' quest to expand the playoffs, because ESPN doesn't seem so interested in the added inventory

TomBruno23

1:16

What can you tell us St. Louis Cardinals diehard fans, The BFIB, about why we should tune in to the 2025 season?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

"Remember that perennial playoff contender you used to watch? It could be awhile before you see them again. In the meantime, try not to throw any large objects at your screen every time John Mozeliak or Oli Marmol shows up. They'll be be gone soon enough. "

Didace

1:18

"ABS challenge system that's on the way isn't going to cut into it the way an all-robo system would." Once the challenge system is put in place, it will be at most five years before it will be all-robo-all-the-time.

Jay Jaffe

1:18

Doubt it. Everybody HATED its implementation in Triple-A, and the sport is very attached to the human element.

The Old Professor

1:19

Is Sandy Alcantra’s new ( rediscovered) 98 mph velocity this spring enough to move the needle on his health and durability status for this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

I'm glad to see he's throwing 98 and take that to mean that he's feeling good now that he's almost 17 months removed from surgery but let's remember that high velo at high volume is exactly why he was always a risk to wind up getting Tommy John surgery. There will be potholes along the way when it comes to his recovery, and I wouldn't expect to see him throw 200 innings again unless he already has another operating table waiting for him.

Ham Fighter

1:23

How much would trading for Ryan McMahon or Josh Smith move the needle on Milwaukee's infield situation?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

Either would probably be an upgrade over Oliver Dunn at third base, but not a game-changer. Still, the Brewers are at the point where every marginal win is particularly valuable so any kind of upgrade would be welcome

Guest

1:24

Why wouldn't an ABS system affect catcher framing value too much moving forward? I know the advanced stats on framing have helped current catching HOF candidates...I was just thinking moving forward...

Jay Jaffe

1:26

the system that's being tested this spring allows for only two challenges per game, that out of I don't know how many dozen borderline pitches per game that could shift from balls to strikes or vice versa. It's volume that gives framing so much value.

David Forst

1:26

What could I get from the Mets for some of my excess of uninjured starting pitchers?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

Probably Juan Soto AND Ronny Mauricio.

1:29

Honestly, even with club control years remaining, I don't think guys like JP Sears or Joey Estes (both mentioned via another question) are going to bring back major league-ready talent or a top prospect. I know there's not a ton to root for in Oakland right now, but would the additions of a 45 FV and 40 FV prospect who are both 2 years away from the majors be that exciting?

Vlad Guerrero Jr

1:29

If you were a GM, what would be the max contract you’d be willing to give to Guerrero? A lot of people clowned on the Blue Jays’ $340m offer but that seems about right to me, maybe a bit high even. I guess it depends on how well he does in 2025.

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Given that Vladito went 3 years between exceptional seasons, is a large adult son righty-swinging first baseman with lousy defensive metrics, and looks like a DH in the making, I wouldn't even go to $300 million for a long-term deal unless he more or less replicates his 2024 season this year. I think Dan's piece here is probably right up your alley https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-would-a-vladito-contract-look-like/

War2d2

1:33

Not doubting anything you said about PCA vs. Carroll overall, but the speed thing stuck out for me. Savant has PCA as a 99th percentile sprint speed and 98th percentile in base running value, vs. 96/100 for Carroll. The 60 grade on PCA’s running seems way, way too low to me.

Jay Jaffe

1:34

That's a fair critique.

Dan

1:34

When people talk about a fringe player being over exposed is that because by playing less their rate stats are better or is it just that 50 inning of below average play is better than 100 innings of below average play? Or maybe they really just mean the player deserves a platoon partner.

Jay Jaffe

1:35

A lot of times it has to do with platooning. A guy may be much more playable — average or better — against opposite-hand pitching but weak against same-side, and that will drag his performance down.

Joséphine

1:37

Hi, Jay - thank you for doing this! What do you think are the next steps for the Phillies? They have arguably the best rotation in the league, but their core is aging and has come short in big moments (aside from Harper). Painter seems like a solid prospect, but I'm not sure about any of their position players.

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