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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/26/21
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Dru
2:44
Wander coming up in 21?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
I think it's almost inevitable we'll see him debut in 2021, but I don't think that means necessarily that he'll be a regular this year. We know the Rays are going to game his service clock, and that they've already got a very competent shortstop in Willy Adames in place, not to mention Brandon Lowe at second. It might take an injury to open up significant playing time before August/September.
Childish Bambino
2:51
I don't understand the distinction, there is a column that refers to "Runs Prevented" on Baseball Savant.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
My bad, I'm looking at the individual player cards, which don't appear to have the runs figures, and not the leaderboard. I haven't done or seen any cross comparisons between the metrics as to how they line up or differ.
Jeff
2:54
Javier Baez has never played a full ML season at SS. What do I make of that? Seems like he could slide right over to 2B and still have a shot to be all-world
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
He's played almost 80% of their innings at shortstop over the past two seasons, and Addison Russell is gone. 33 DRS in that time. He's good! Worth watching!
WhiteSoxFan
2:57
What are your expectations for Michael Kopech in 2021?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
A season split between bullpen and rotation, since he's missed a full year for TJ and another year due to opting out. I think he could dominate, but he could also be rusty. I suggest reading what Eric had to say about him on his Top 100 list, as he's got much greater insight into where Kopech is at than I do https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/
Marshall
2:59
I see that Fangraphs lets you sort by all-time career value in batting (Ruth), fielding (Brooks Robinson), and baserunning (Henderson). Is there a way to find out the all-time single-season leaders in each category?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
Be sure to  toggle the Split Seasons checkbox to the left of where you choose the dates. Here's the list for batting value https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y...
T-D-A
3:00
Realistic Projections for Wander for 21 and 22
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
.477/.564/.946
3:02
Man, I don't know! Check ZiPS and Steamer, check PECOTA. The people who make those systems can do more than pull numbers out of thin air. I'm not sitting here with a stockpile of hand-cranked projections and prospect evaluations that differ from what our experts in those areas can tell you
Gord
3:02
What are the odds that Corey Seager won’t be wearing a Dodgers uniform on Opening Day 2022?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
maybe 50/50 because of the available alternatives such as Lindor and Correa.
Pumpsie Green
3:03
Has the HoF ever banished an inductee, like the way the football hall removed OJ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
https://www.profootballhof.com/players/oj-simpson/ I don't think the Pro Football HOF banished Simpson
3:05
but beyond that, no, the Baseball Hall has never banished anyone
MikeD
3:05
Yes, but when Wander does slash .477/.564/.946 for his age 21 and 22 seasons, you will be required to launch the Jaffe Projection System.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
challenge accepted
Dan
3:08
A while ago I read that Andy Petite was easily the best pitcher of his age group. The idea being that rookie pitchers during the steroid era had a historically hard time succeeding and if he isn't a hall of famer that mean practically noone from the 90s (HOF pitchers who played in the 90s where all established before then or only caught the tail end) would be a hall of fame pitcher. I can get your take on this line of reasoning.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
I mean only if you're using such a narrow definition of "age group" that Pedro Martinez, who's 8 months older than Pettitte (b. 1972), is outside of it. That said, the next three guys in value who were born within ~5 years of him, i.e., 1967-77, are towards the extremes: Mussina (1968), Smoltz (1967) and Halladay (1977)
Pumpsie Green
3:11
Who of Lindor, Correa, Seager, Story, Baez and Semien do you think has the best chance of a great season and moving up the shortstop rankings? And do you agree with the ranking as currently presented?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
Lindor and Seager, I think, will be the top 2 heading into this coming winter, with Corey's bat shining more brightly than Correa's glove. Story'a going to have to overcome the Coors factor to move up that list significantly. Baez has work just to get back to where he was offensively before 2020, and Semien likewise.
Guest
3:15
Does a player's relationship with the media and/or other players contribute in any meaningful way to his HOF election chances? If so, is there any way that could be accounted for?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
yes but probably much less than it used to matter in an age of greater voter transparency. Dick Allen suffered, Kevin Brown suffered, Ron Santo suffered, and I'm sure I could come up with more, but voting wasn't nearly as transparent when they were on the ballots, and none was a slam dunk based on milestones and awards, so there was always going to be room for subjectivity in the balloting
DJ
3:18
How long is LeMahieu going to keep this up and are Rockies castoffs an undervalued resource as opposed to our assumption of the opposite?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
Well, it's not like I'd immediately hand out a two year deal to any player Jeff Bridich thinks isn't a fit for his team, but we're getting there. What a backwards-ass joke of an organization.
P
3:19
Bill James touted Darrell Evans as a deserving HOFer in latest FG podcast. I’m curious what is your input on Evans’ case and why you think James is high on him
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
Evans is 19th in JAWS at 3B (48.4). I get that he was significantly underappreciated in his day, but I don't see an overwhelming caes for him by any means; by bWAR he was a top-10 player in his league just twice, and by OPS+ just three times. I'd put Scott Rolen, Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Graig Nettles. Buddy Bell and Sal Bando — all 53-57 JAWS — in the Hall before him, and by that point, Evans would probably look even more out of place.
45 blows billygoats
3:24
Do you have an active MLB player comp for Tork?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
No, but that shouldn't surprise you if you've been reading me. I'm not the prospects guy, and I've had it instilled in me by the prospect guys that comps to current or recent players are often pretty misleading unless they're carefully qualified.
John S.
3:26
Assuming the Marlins don't make the playoffs, who is the starting outfield at the end of the year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
wait, it's not going to be Ozuna-Yelich-Stanton?
3:29
Right now it lines up as Dickerson-Marte-Duvall, maybe with Cooper in the mix at the corners, but I suspect we'll see Jesus Sanchez up in midseason, playing RF regularly, and maybe Monte Harrison.
P
3:29
Odds of a universal DH for 2021 season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
I don't think it's dead yet. Wouldn't surprise me if we get a resolution on like March 20th just before the real roster cutdowns start.
3:31
Ok folks, I'd like to stay longer but have some Friday afternoon business to attend to. Thanks for stopping by, and let's keep the good times rolling next week. Stay safe!
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