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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/27/24

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Jay Jaffe

2:54

Our projections put Neto a bit ahead of the other two, but Tovar's defensive value could be enough that he comes out ahead.

Richard

2:54

I know he’s behind Munson and Tenace in JAWS, but Bill Freehan’s 11 All-Star selections lead eligible players outside the Hall (who are not connected to PEDs). Do you expect that gets him the required attention for this year’s Classic Era ballot?

Jay Jaffe

2:58

Freehan has long been hosed by the committee process. He's the most complete candidate of the three, but I don't *expect* him to get the needed attention to get on this upcoming ballot. I do hope that he does, at least.

And I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Tenace. No matter how good he looks in WAR and JAWS, the reality is that he had just three seasons where he caught more than 61 games, and so it's going to be tough for a committee to accept a guy who's really a C/1B hybrid getting through.

Insert Witty Name Here

2:58

Read your piece today and had questions about two Phillies: 1) Bohm can make great contact, but doesn’t quite have as much power as we’d like. Do you see any indicators he may still have more in the tank? 2) Rojas is an elite CF, what’s the minimum triple slash you’d accept to keep running him out there every day hitting out of the 9 hole?

Jay Jaffe

3:02

Re Bohm: the evidence is modest at best. He did hit 20 homers and post a .450 xSLG (.437 actual) but his maximum exit velocities have been trending downward. I think he'd need a swing change (and/or a philosophical change) to produce more power.

3:03

As for Rojas, .300 OBP/.375 SLG with plus-plus defense would still be pretty playable.

Sanford

3:04

Positional power rankings coming soon?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

I think they start on March 18.

Eric

3:04

What's a reasonable ceiling for the Mets this year, especially in the wake of the Senga injury? Is there an outside shot at a wild card berth, or just gotta take the lumps and look ahead to 2025?

Jay Jaffe

3:07

They have just over a one-in-four chance of being a Wild Card team, so I think that's your answer. Finding out what they have in guys like Baty, Vientos, Alvarez, Magill, Manaea, and Severino coud still be worthwhile; they have pitching they could deal at the deadline if they're clearly not in contention.

Joey Caltrain

3:08

If a player somehow put up fifteen 3-win seasons and one 15-win season, they would approach the JAWS standards at most positions. Would you think they were a good Hall of Fame candidate, or would their ordinary compiler career outside of the one mind-breaking season make you dubious?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

The latter, though it would still be very difficult to discount that 15-win season!

DBRuns

3:09

Cleveland fan here. Andres Gimenez has put together 14.6 bWAR before his age 25 season (doesn't get talked about much). If you do the math, 12 more seasons averaging 4 WAR, and he's in strong HOF contention. I'm sure there are tons of players over the course of history that have done something similar prior to their age 25 season, but there has to be a scenario he's a HOF candidate right? Maybe 5% chance?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

12 seasons of anybody averaging 4 WAR would put them in strong HOF contention. I don't particularly see optimism in Gimenez's case because his defense at 2B will inevitably regress and because he has just one season out of four where he was significantly better than league average on the offensive side. 5% odds? Yeah, that's probably not a bad guess given his age.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

3:12

Do enjoy the break from Hall of Fame questions and topics between the January announcements and the summer inductions, or do you miss talking about it?

Jay Jaffe

3:13

I still get asked about Hall stuff year round, and I'm happy to field questions along those lines, though I do enjoy the lower intensity of the whole matter when we're not in election season.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

3:14

If you could do one thing to improve the health of the game, what would you do?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

Find a better way to incentive spending among middle-of-the-pack teams so they're not just aiming for .500, leaving glaring holes and hoping to get lucky.

Stephen Dubner

3:15

Why is the free agent market so depressed this year? After last year's bevy of megadeals, this year, we had Ohtani and Yamamoto and then a bunch of crickets. Snell and Montgomery are still unsigned (why?), and a bunch of other players seem to be signing for below market value. Are teams anticipating a bumper crop next year and saving their cash? Or is something else at play?

Jay Jaffe

3:17

I think the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy, which has thrown several teams' broadcast revenues into question, has created some real problems for many teams, and even griping as I have above, I probably haven't weighted this heavily enough in terms of my own expectations.

Mark

3:18

Hi, what are your feelings on Nolan Schanuel this year?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

he's going to have to hit the ball harder than he did in 2023 (85.4 mph EV, .367 xSLG) to be very useful

Dan Rosenberg

3:20

Hi Jay, What did you think of the Dodgers’ trade of Michael Busch to the Cubs? I didn’t see a Fangraphs article about it. It seems LA didn’t get much for Busch

Jay Jaffe

3:22

it seemed pretty clear he wasn't going to get much of a chance in LA, so trading him was for the best, but now he's in a situation where he's got a lot of other young players to compete with for playing time. In light of the Bellinger signing it wouldn't surprise if his long-term destination is another trade away.

KC Pain

3:26

NY questions. Can Stanton be a .230 35HR type? Is there a Met you like at the backend of rotation to breakout?

Jay Jaffe

3:27

I don't think we're likely to see Stanton hit 35 homers again; if he does, I'd be he's also producing a higher AVG. As for Mets starters, I'm especially interested to see how Sean Manaea does after a second straight winter at Driveline, his late 2023 addition of a sweeper, and plans to introduce a cutter as well.

fishs

3:29

So the Cubs 5th starter job is between Smyly, Wicks, Assad, and Wesneski. It seems that Smyly and Wicks are considered most likely to win the job while most people would agree that Wesneski has the best stuff of the 4. My question is about Assad. He has gotten the best results of this group over the last 2 year, but he has significantly out performed his FIP in this time. At what point does a team that hopes to contend decide to take a bigger swing in someone like Wesneski instead of rolling with the "safer" option in Assad?

Jay Jaffe

3:32

For so many starting pitchers, the commitment from a team — the point at when they're deemed ready — is when they develop a reliable third pitch. Hitters pounded Wesneski's fastball, sinker, and cutter last yea, and by Stuff+ only the cutter (100) and sweeper (123) were average or better. He's gotta shore that up to reach his potential.

Hugh Duffy

3:32

Looking at your "weakest positions" article, how crazy is it that the Braves and Dodgers aren't even mentioned?

Jay Jaffe

3:33

It really is crazy! Depending upon how the AL shakes out I might take a look at the weakest spots on the top-tier teams who otherwise go un- or under-represented.

12 to 6

3:34

up to 2016 kershaw had a perfectly cromulent (if not necessarily "winning") argument as the best sp in mlb history; the injury breaks since then have removed him from that convo, but i'd still posit he's in the convo for "best" lhsp in mlb history. perhaps not most dominant (carlton, unit), but for consistency of performance whenever he took the mound i'm having a hard time making the argument against without going back to lefty grove (and it was a totally different game). thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

3:39

Because he could repeatedly throw more innings and miss more bats, I still would put Randy Johnson ahead of Kershaw, but I'd have Kershaw ahead of Carlton, who rarely strung together big seasons back to back. IIRC, not until 1980-81 did Lefty have consecutive 5-bWAR seasons whereas Kershaw had eight in a row from 2010-17 (including offense).

birds

3:39

Plenty of teams could use back of the rotation depth/help. I gotta imagine that Lorenzen and Clevinger are cheap. Are they stuck because teams think they can catch Snell/Montgomery on a pillow? Because teams think they're cooked? Because they're holding out for two years?

Jay Jaffe

3:39

I think once Snell and Montgomery find homes, the other guys will, too. They're the consolation prizes.

bringbackpologrounds

3:40

How would you rank the shortstop wave (Correa, Lindor, Xander, Semien, Seager, Turner) by HOF chances? How many of them are on track?

Jay Jaffe

3:42

I took a look at this last summer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep.... Seager didn't make the cut but his 2nd World Series MVP award pushes him into the picture. Particularly with Correa's subpar season, Lindor is the strongest bet of all of them right now.

Whaler

3:42

Why do you think Matt Chapman remains unsigned at this point. I remember he turned down a nice extension a few years ago wanting to bet on himself. That hasn’t gone well. I would think he’s in panic mode by now.

Jay Jaffe

3:45

I don't think any of the remaining Boras free agents is panicking. They've still got time to make opening day rosters barring any injuries, and they're all trying to make sense of an array of options that might not be what they had hoped, and may fall tens of millions of dollars short of what they wanted. However it pans out they're still going to get paid a ****ton of money to play baseball for a team they choose.

Matt (Oceanside)

3:45

Hi Jay, obviously Babe Ruth's offensive accomplishments speak for themselves, but I don't hear too much about his defense in RF. Was he considered a good defensive RF? From the photos I have seen of him, he looks more like a compact slugger with a burly frame that doesn't suggest a lot of defensive value. What say you?

Jay Jaffe

3:46

The defensive metrics we have for Ruth put him substantially below average (-78 runs career) and we know his managers would switch him between left and right field depending upon the configuration of the ballpark he was in. Didn't really matter for the most part because his offense was elite.

Connecting…

RSO

6:21

Who does Blake Snell sign with?

Phil up

6:30

What are major league co

Phil up

6:31

parables to Arjun Nimmala.

6:37

Starting to think there actually is no market for Blake Snell.....

KC Pain

6:37

16 team dynasty league with pick 10 in FYPD, I think consenus is Langford/Yama/Crews/Skenes/Jenkins...who would be next 5 to you off board and who would you target at 10 ?

KC Pain

6:38

Is there any last season plus spring training hype you are buying into for any late round rotation guys?

your Mother

6:39

Those are your good pants?!? I'm so embarrassed.

Scrapper

6:39

Devin Hester's recent elevation to the football Hall of Fame makes me wonder where you stand on relievers in the Hall--too many, not enough or just right?

KC Pain

6:42

Taveras, Hays, or Wallner in a 5x5 redraft?

Matt

6:43

Hey Jay,

fishs

6:45

Is Bailey Horn going to make the OD roster?

Jed

6:49

Will Zack Littell be yet another pitcher who moves to Tampa and becomes good?

Jed

6:52

Are either or both Chase Silseth or Griffin Canning viable fantasy starters this year?

Guest

6:52

Taitis(only this year)Manzardo,Jenkins(5years 0 cost when they start in m/l),for Langford/Keith(5 years 0cost when they start m/l).Plus $15 dollar transfer out of a $375 salary cap.

Joey Caltrain

6:54

Both Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck are dealing with injuries. What's the chance that the Giants are already stuck using bullpen games as soon as the season starts?

12 to 6

6:55

lucius/war on drugs/national at forest hills in september, bro.

baseball: other than the prospect value, have the dodgers already moved on from miggy vargas? he wasn't good last year, but is still young - that said, there seems to be no real fit for him on the roster at this point, particularly with kike resigning. yes, he's dodger depth for injuries, but surprised they would move on so quickly even given last season.

Joe

6:55

5x5 NL only last keeper between mclain, kim and suzuki

Sanford

6:57

what's for lunch

Guest

7:00

12 Team, Roto, 5 keepers, 5x5. who to keep ?

Frank White

7:00

If I had hit a World Series walk-off home run, would I have a Hall of Fame plaque?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

7:03

Which is the worst team in each league that you believe still has a legitimate shot at making the playoffs?

Cameron Kear

7:04

I know it’s still a long ways out but what are the odds of another lockout in 2026?

Insert Witty Name Here

7:04

Pitch clock is getting shortened again, should we worry about some pitchers getting worse?

Guest

7:05

12 team, 5x5, roto, 5 keepers. Who to keep? Castillo 3rd, W.Smith 6th, C,Walker 8th, J.Lowe 9th, N.Jones 9th, R.Lewis 10th. B.Stott, 17th, Eflin 21st, M,King 30th

seddrah

7:06

Hunter Greene or Pablo Lopez?

Scott Boras

7:08

Hey, any chance my clients get signed before opening day?

Ben Cherington

7:08

Why do I refuse to make a single trade with a hint of risk involved, even though my core is now extended and many of my prospects have debuted and my team currently employs 2.5 starting pitchers.

David

7:09

For players that are not signed yet, shouldn't that be a sign to them and their agent(s) that their price tag is too high. You are only worth in the end what teams are willing to offer and if nobody is offering those numbers, you take what you can get???

Mark

7:09

Who are some AL players that you think are poised for a breakout? Any favorites?

David

7:10

What players coming off of injuries are you most concerned about coming into this year?

Cameron Kear

7:11

Do you believe another lockout in 2026 is inevitable?

nate

7:11

Who will be the most likely braves number 5 starter

nate

7:12

Is it likely that hurston Waldrep makes the majors by playoffs

NOT pitching ninja

7:12

Spring has sprung - is it the year of the death ball?

birds

7:12

If Snell/Montgomery are down to pillow contracts with opt-outs, the Orioles have to be in on that, right? I mean, I know the sale isn't final yet, but come on...

Adam

7:13

Predictions with Brooks Lee and the Minnesota Twins? Who is an MLB player know you think he is most like?

Guest

7:13

Do you think the Nationals have the best farm system in the majors? At least the NL? Maybe it's too topheavy?

Guest

7:15

The best memory of Jose DeLeon is Hawk Harrelson trading Bobby Bonilla for him.

Sodo Mojo

7:16

If Snell was willing to come down on his asking price and years do you think Seattle makes sense given its his hometown. I know the Seattle rotations is a strength but the depth outside of their top 5 is very thin.

Grand Admiral Braun

7:16

The best memory of Jose DeLeon is Hawk Harrelson trading Bobby Bonilla for him.

Andrew Painter

7:16

I’m not at your house. Must be an imposter

Bob

7:21

Does WAR do a good job of evaluating pitching? About 25% of IP last year were from pitchers that had a WAR of 0.0 or less which kind of indicates that some of those innings aren't exactly easily replaceable. And bullpen WARs that add up to 500-600IP usually have an aggregate WAR of a good starter despite 2-3 times the IP and better results.

Kevin

7:24

Wouldn't it make sense for the Hall to re-split the Classic Baseball committee and have it meet half as often (if the goal was keeping the number elected low)? With the pre-expansion AL/NL picked over, it feels like the two primary groups it will consider are so wildly different: expansion-era guys like Allen, Tiant, Grich whose contemporaries can participate in evaluating them, and long-ago pre-Negro Leagues Black players who are better evaluated by historians akin to the 2006 special commission. How can they possibly staff this committee appropriately?

Andrew Painter

7:24

I have read that the biomechanics of submarine pitchers is less stressful on the arm. If it was more common for kids to learn to pitch this way (and there were more people putting in their 10000 hours with this delivery) do you think we would see guys throwing in the low-mid 90s from that arm slot, and how much fun would that be to watch?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

7:25

It is likely too late to reduce the number of playoff teams. Is there a tweak to the playoff structure that would incentivize teams to "go for it" more?

Zach

7:27

I know batting position mostly doesn't matter, but do you have any opinion on Ohtani hitting second or third for the Dodgers this year?

David

7:27

Defense needs more respect for the upper echelon players. Andruw Jones as exhibit A for the Hall. Top of the world Defense and solid offense should be hall worthy.

Cameron Kear

7:29

What are the offs of another lockout in 2026?

Mike

7:33

I have no interest in watching most pitchers pitch when they aren't effective, unless those pitchers are pitching to the Twins, then bring on the tired, ineffective guys! So I'm not sure all fans agree with Scrapper. I want to see the best vs the best (at their best) more often. Most teams don't have 2 really good SPs to begin with, there just aren't that many on the planet.

birds

7:36

Whenever MLB expands there's suddenly a bunch of weaker players in the league, and presumably the best players will feast a little. For a borderline HOF guy, a bunch of expansion would make you that much better than average, help you rack up stats, provide more roster spots to get in the league earlier and stay in it longer. This something you ever consider?

Eric

7:38

Is the long-term solution for the Mets at 3rd base Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, or someone not currently in the organization?

Guest

7:38

I dont know if this is the right pace for this, but I do not have a subscription and am looking to import a live data feed by url into excel. is that something that is possible with a subscription?

Jake

7:39

Your opinion, what was the smartest contract give out this offseason and what was a contract that made you scratch your head?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

7:39

Regarding the 4 Hall of Famers question, the late 1990s Mariners had Griffey, Randy, Edgar, and A-Rod -- so three current members and one whose on-field performance would have merited first ballot selection except for his off-field jackassery.

New Guy

7:39

Hey Jay, I'm not really familiar with your work. What type of questions are best for you? Projections? Prospects? Fantasy?

Don Kelly

7:41

Do you think Pete Alonso has watched how “flawed” Boras clients were treated this offseason and is reconsidering his free agent strategy? Thanks.

Jason

7:45

Are you strictly a Mets' fans? How is it being the fan of a city's second team? Does it make you hate or resent the Yankees?

Snell

7:45

Do you think MLB will ever have a free agency process that is fun to follow for fans? It's almost March and the reigning NL Cy Young winner still isn't on a team... This league sucks

Jason

7:45

What cities should get the next two expansion teams?

Jason

7:46

What is the number one factor that you look at when a prospect comes up when considering whether a player may someday become a Hall of Famer?

Guest

7:47

Re: the late '60s Cubs and stacked teams that didn't win, I always think of the late '90s Mariners, who had Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey, Jr., Edgar Martinez, and A-Rod (who isn't in, obviously, but, like Griffey and Johnson, clearly inner circle on performance)

Cameron Kear

7:48

I know it’s a ways away but what are the odds of another lockout in 2026?

7:48

We have at least one and maybe more statistics that are based on league results (as opposed to MLB). Do we need that anymore with balanced schedules? Understand that teams still play their division more but shouldn't stats (and awards) just be MLB based now?

Cameron Kear

7:49

I know it’s years away but what do you think the odds of another lockout in 2026 are?

Jason

7:52

Ben Clemens wrote an excellent article today on Fangraphs about how the Rays keep winning despite their relative lack of resources, cash, and fans. But here is the thing--the Rays don't have fans or notable history or good uniforms or a good ballpark or anything else that makes fans care about that team. In short, the aesthetics of that team sucks. Time to bring on the Portland Rays.

JOHNNYHELLER

7:53

Just read your 1b ranking and I wonder why you seem "down" on Arraez. His BA alone makes him better than an $8 guy - add runs scored, RBIs...he strikes me as more valuable than your ranking (no disrespect intended!)

Dave Roberts

7:54

Did I make the right call batting Ohtani ahead of Freeman?

Guest

7:54

One way to get SP to go longer in games is to limit the # of pitchers on the 26 man roster, anywhere between 10 and 12. This could be evaluated over a 3-5 year period to determine if the limits are producing positive results. The 26 man roster could also be reduced back to 25 during that same evaluation period. Would any of those implentations require union approval and do you think these are viable options?

Idiotic Failson

7:55

If the HoF had a wing for the most awesome batting stance/setup, who do you think belongs in it? My first pick is the Gary Sheffield bat waggle.

Jason

7:56

I am a Cubs fan and I love the relatively short term deal for the team...but if Bellinger sucks he will still make 80 million in 2024-2026 and if he is great this year, he will opt out, reducing the value of the deal to the Cubs. So the Cubs lower their risk but it is very possible that the Cubs end up paying 80 million over three years for a player who only "earns" 40-60 million dollars.

Smiling Politely

7:56

I get Amed Rosario was not good last year, but he's going to make a fraction of what Whit Merrifield and Tim Anderson are, and it's not like Anderson had a good year (and Whit is in his late 30s and will be backup).

Smiling Politely

7:57

Sorry, the question was: am I missing something about Rosario or did his agent maybe not get the best price?

Cameron

7:57

Do you think we get another lockout in 2026?

Jason

7:58

How many games during a season would an average team of Hall of Fame players win against an average MLB team?

johnnywaffles

8:01

Are there any teams more high variance than the Reds this year? Do you think their staff has a chance to be better than, say, 20th?

Jed

8:08

In a dynasty league, which SS would you prefer? Zach Neto, Masyn Winn, Ezequiel Tovar

The 6ix

8:11

Thinking about both fantasy and real world baseball, at what age do batters and pitchers generally start to decline in performance?

Sam

8:16

Who's your ultimate "I didn't think they were a HOFer when they were playing, but looking back at the numbers, they should be a slam dunk" guy?

I Fargin hate this place

8:16

As a Phillies fan, I like Alec Bohm, but i have a hard time projecting him becoming much better than this, and Matt Chapman is just ... sitting there. I feel he'd be a meaningful upgrade, but also get the sense it's just not going to happen. Do you agree? How would you rank the reasons why it's not happening (Overall payroll; age; worries about defensive decline ...)

Mike

8:16

Health of the game? Get games on tv and streaming so fans can actually watch games (especially in, say, Iowa). Seriously need to get games on streaming so fans can watch them. No blackouts if we pay......

Mr. Met

8:18

Any Chance the Mets could land Tariq Skubal for a package similar to a Vientos, Montes de Oca, Matt Allen Castenada deal?

Mr. Met

8:19

Are the brewers/padres/tigers etc done dealing pitching?

Edgar scores, Junior scores, they all score

8:20

Four sophomore pitchers: Brayan Bello, Bryce Miller, Gavin Wiulliams, Tanner Bibbee. Who's going to have the better year? The better career?

fishs

8:20

Kyle Hendricks calling his own pitches is so cool

KC Pain

8:23

Brenton Doyle has the defensive part down. Any chance the metrics support him developing a halfway decent bat?

Andy

8:29

Thoughts on Crawford to the Cardinals?

Tom

8:30

Does the recent election of Mauer on the first ballot insure that Buster Posey and Yadier Molina will go in on the first ballot? And what, if anything, does it do for borderline catcher candidates, like Russell Martin and Brian McCann?

Greg

8:31

What do you think odds are of Caminero getting full time ABs by the end of the year? How about Aranda? Lots of good hitters in TB.

Sanford

8:33

How would you describe your baseball watching habits during the season? Jump around on MLB.TV throughout the night or pick 1-2 games that seem the most interesting? Any teams or players you tend to check in on the most?

Tom

8:33

Another team not mentioned on the weakest spots - St. Louis Cardinals … where do you see them this year?

Matt

8:39

What are your thoughts on the back end of the Twins rotation (Paddack, Varland, DeSclafani, or potentially David Festa breakout)?

Pete Alonso

8:39

Where should i start shopping for a house?

Irrelevant in COL

8:40

I miss the days of Gallaraga Bichette Castilla Burks Walker then Helton etc. It’s a shame for Rockies fans that they haven’t come close to putting together a solid offense in what feels like a long time. Ah well those were the days. There’s really no light ahead at the end of this tunnel. How can this franchise be fixed?

deGrom

8:41

is he done being the most dominant SP in MLB (to not use spider tack)

WookiesRoarForTheMets

8:44

Is Steve Cohen capable of sitting back and letting smart baseball people make smart baseball decisions and not let’s say trying to land Correa for no obvious reason?

Jared

8:46

Which player who hasn't broken out yet do you think will break out this season ?!?

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