JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/28/19

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/28/19

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isaacmeep

12:51

Say an Ohtani-like player were to put up something like a 40 WAR career at both hitting and pitching, for a sum total of 80 war. He'd probably fall short of HOF standards at both, but combined would you think he'd get into the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

Yes

12:52

Pulling off a high-level career that is without precedent would make him an easy pick for the Hall.

Hanging with Mr. Cooperstown

12:55

Regarding spring stats like velocity - not sure who, but one of the FG writers is keeping this amazing document going - I've saved it to my favorites and don't remember who, but it definitely came from FG! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tGp4Hm-94yUZliKGsXdM4FOr2eNDXs...

Jay Jaffe

12:56

That looks like the work of Jeff Zimmerman

Morbo

12:56

When did the DL change to the IL? And, were there any additional rule changes to go along with the name change?

Jay Jaffe

12:57

Announced earlier this month. No rule change accompanying the change in nomenclature. It will be tough to break the habit of using the DL acronym, but I support the reasoning behind the move. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/02/08/baseball-got-it-disab...

Trevor

12:57

Steamer predictions Daniel Murphy and Vlad Jr. to win the NL and AL batting title this year. Which is more likely?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

Murph, because my Lord, the Blue Jays could very well keep Vlad Jr. down on the farm long enough to prevent him from getting enough PA to qualify. And given their clear desire to suppress his future earnings, it's probably in their interest to do just that.

Name

12:58

If there is eventually a woman who makes it to the MLB and she has an otherwise unnoteworthy career (<5 WAR) does she make it to the hall?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

Doubtful, especially because it would be tough to reach the necessary 10-year minimum. More likely to be honored with the Buck O'Neil award, or have a new award created in her honor.

Reprobate

1:01

Steamer loves Vlad Jr. but isn't impressed with Tatis Jr. How Come?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

I'd guess that their contact rates make a huge difference. Tatis has a strikeout rate of at least 24% every year so far (27.7% last year), Vlad Jr 13.4% or lower (10.6% last year)

Joao

1:04

What's your take on Max Scherzer chances for the HoF? Could 200W & 3000 K be a new benchmark of sorts?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I think whatever Max does from here onward, he's on the Pedro/Halladay path — multiple Cy Youngs plus clear dominance over an extended period is good enough. I do think 200/3000 is probably the trad-stat combo that makes for a good rule of thumb

M

1:08

This isn’t, strictly speaking, a baseball question, but what’s to stop a team from both front-loading and de-facto deferring money in a contract in order to game the luxury tax. For instance, say the Dodgers offered Harper a 15 year deal with at 50million per seasons 1-5, then a player option for seasons 6-15 at 5 million/season. It gets Harper a huge annual payout, a 300 million guarantee while reducing the luxury tax hit. Plus, at 5 million/season after year 5, Harper is almost guaranteed to opt out... I mean, if he doesn’t opt out, you’re stuck with a pretty high luxury tax number but not a huge commitment of actual dollars, but that gamble seems like it would be worth it for the dodgers.

Jay Jaffe

1:10

For luxury tax purposes, there's more to calculating AAV than simply $/years when opt-outs are involved. IIRC, Joel Sherman has written about this but I wasn't able to find it in my 60-second Google search

Anonymous

1:11

More catchers playing today will make the HoF than deserve to. Y/N?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

LOL, have you seen the state of catching today? I think Posey and Molina make it (I'm less on board with the latter but resigned to the inevitability) but it's not like we're going to see a flood of completely underqualified guys making it. Martin and McCann are on their last legs, Lucroy wasn't able to live up to that near MVP year, Grandal already has a PED suspension to his name. who else could break from the pack?

Anonymous

1:13

Nomar Mazara has hit exactly 20 HR in 3 straight years, and is 23 years old. There. That's a thing you're thinking about now.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Along with Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara needs to join the launch angle revolution. 55% GB rate isn't going to cut it.

pumpsie

1:14

Now that everyone associated with MLB - owners, players, managers, media - is directly profiting from gambling, does the argument against Pete Rose in the Hall stand up for you still? How can MLB even have that rule anymore?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

I'm not comfortable with MLB's new relationship with the gambling industry but Rule 21 (""Any player, umpire, or Club or League official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform, shall be declared permanently ineligible.") isn't going anywhere, and to hell with Pete Rose, who knew exactly what he was getting into, and never showed anything close to the kind of contrition and reform necessary to reconsider his ban.

DJ Tanner

1:19

Is Muncy going to be playing every day for the Dodgers? Or will Roberts rotate guys like the end of last season.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

I think the Dodgers' hope is for more of a set lineup than they had late last year, but I do suspect there will still be moving parts. I also think that now that the Dodgers are in the mix for Harper, things could still change, particularly given that the Pollock signing pushed Bellinger out of the CF mix (except for maybe spot duty), which in turn has an impact on how much playing time Muncy gets.

Josh

1:22

How worried should I be about Kershaw? I'm pretty worried

Jay Jaffe

1:25

I don't think there's any point in worrying until a) a structural issue is found; or b) his Opening Day availability is threatened. For all we know, right now he's going through a dead arm period (muscle fatigue), which most pitchers face at some point in the spring, and given his stated desire to regain his lost velocity was working a bit too hard in the winter. FWIW, yesterday's throwing session went "pretty well"

Andrew Friedman said Clayton Kershaw’s throwing session went “pretty well.”

Morbo

1:26

Were you also disappointed that Craig Edwards' "A Modest Proposal" failed to include cannibalism in its solution to service time manipulation?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

I'm disappointed that cannibalism isn't more of a topic in ALL of our FanGraphs coverage.

scottz

1:27

How often do you think we will see a pitcher come in, retire a batter, and then suddenly have a "shoulder twinge" that forces them out of the game, but resolves before the next game?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

I think that if there were a 3-batter minimum rule adopted, it would come with a rule to prevent such obvious chicanery. A player being removed for injury purposes would need a mandatory DL stay, or maybe a choice between that and x days of unavailability while remaining on the roster.

Anonymous

1:31

Will Ohtani have a better career pitching or hitting?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Given that his pitching career has already hit its first bump, and that there will always be more that can go wrong on that end, I think he'll have a longer (and probably better) career as a hitter, but I do hope we get more of what we saw in 2018 before that ends.

Phil

1:32

What can we expect from Scott Kingery this season, especially with the news that Cesar Hernandez might miss the start of the season? Can this guy break out this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

Well, I don't think Kingery could be much worse than he was last year, and I suspect that playing him at his natural position (where he made just 4 appearances last year) would help. So would not swinging at 40% of pitches outside the strike zone.

Tyler

1:34

Do you think doing away with the "save" statistic would have a salutary effect on HOF voting? As it is, people like Trevor Hoffman and Wagner are receiving votes primarily because they racked up a large number of a contrived and meaningless statistic; meanwhile, players with much better HOF credentials like Schilling, Rolen, and Walker can't get in. Killing saves seems like it could free up votes for more deserving candidates in HOF voting in the future.

Jay Jaffe

1:36

On the contrary, i think most people (including voters) would lose track of relievers if the save statistic were to vanish without being replaced by some other kind of measure. Going just by innings and either flavor of WAR without at least a nod towards some kind of special intangible regarding their ability to finish games, I think the reasons for recognizing a player with 1/2 or 1/3 the workload of a starter kind of dry up.

Sonny Slayhern

1:37

What FA utility man deal do you like the best this offseason in terms of cost, future production, and opportunity with the new team . Jed Lowrie at 2/20M with NYM, DJ Lemahieu at 2/24 with NYY, or Marwin Gonzalez at 2/21M with Minny?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

I like the Marwin deal the most because he's still got the most ability to shortstop of that trio (even if the metrics don't love him), and I think that an infield with Schoop and Sano could well require him to play regularly at one spot for an extended period.

Name

1:40

Realmuto?

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