JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/28/23

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Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the second edition of my chat in my new (old?) timeslot. I've got a piece up today about Gavin Lux's season-ending knee injury (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/gavin-luxs-knee-injury-further-compromises...), and yesterday checked in on Joey Votto as he work his way back from shoulder surgery (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joey-votto-tries-to-bounce-back/).

Broken Bat

2:01

Looks to me the Dodgers must procure a shortstop to support the aging Rojas who all of a sudden the light is shining on. I don’t think they one ready in MILB. So… what team do they toss one of their pitching prospects to get one from? Would they dare pay Baez? I think Tigers would be content to get out of that contract for a decent tier 3 SP. What about trading with Reds? The ex Pirate Frazier? Might be available cheap. Thoughts on what they do?

Jay Jaffe

2:08

I don't think the Dodgers see anything as "must" at least in the near term. They have reason to hope that after undergoing wrist surgery, Miguel Rojas can provide something closer to a league-average bat with plus defense filling in for Lux, and that they have enough depth to allow Chris Taylor to play there as well. There's no way on God's green earth they're taking on Javier Baez's contract or giving up a starting pitcher prospect for him, and I doubt they see Isiah Kiner-Falefa as an option, either. Not sue who you see on the Reds as an option, but ex-Pirate Adam Frazier (now an Oriole) isn't a shortstop, totaling just 26 innings at the position in the majors.

One guy worth keeping an eye on is the Cardinals' Paul DeJong, who after being displaced by Tommy Edman worked to rebuild his swing after being sent down last year, though the dividends certainly weren't apparent at the major league level. If he's recovered his form, he could be of interest.

Oaktown Blues

2:08

Is a Cristian Pache DFA in the cards this spring or will the A's give him one more shot?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

he's out of options but as the A's are playing for crickets, I imagine they'll give him every chance to hold onto a roster spot unless they have a crunch that they need to alleviate.

Still not sure I can name six A's even after looking at their depth chart.

TheVoiceInYourHead

2:11

Why are people so stubborn about Rojas taking over for Lux?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

The Dodgers obviously see enough in Rojas' glove and bounceback potential that they extended him into a two-years-plus-option deal for $11 million. This being the Dodgers, some people think that's still petty cash to them, but not the way they're currently running their roster (though as Alex Eisert pointed out at the time of the trade, it did push them back over the first tax threshold https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-seemingly-scrap-spending-plans-acq...)

History

2:15

Do you think baseball's emphasis on its history holds the sport back? The NFL and NBA have seemed willing to openly make major changes (adding a 17th game and the three point line) without worrying about its impact on records, while MLB gets bogged down in debates over smaller rule changes.

Jay Jaffe

2:17

The debates may be incessant, but come on. The past three decades have seen realignment, interleague play, the introduction of the Wild Card, the expansion of the postseason from four teams to 12, the arrival of the DH in the NL, the pitch clock, the extra-innings rule, instant replay to review umpire calls and more. Those are all major changes, and while they're not universally beloved, they've changed the sport significantly

Joe

2:18

Were you surprised by the Machado deal, especially given your article?\

Jay Jaffe

2:19

Yes, a bit. As Dan Szymborski put it in his piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/opting-out-may-not-be-manny-machados-best-...), "I think Jay and I both underestimated just how motivated the Padres were to ensure Machado stayed in mustard-and-brown for a long time."

2:21

I do think this probably makes retaining Juan Soto even more difficult than before, but that's a problem for another day.

Matt

2:23

With Harper's injury keeping him out until the ASG, what do you think his trajectory needs to look like for him to have >50% chance of making the hall?

Jay Jaffe

2:27

that's a lot of math to try to assess in the context of a chat answer but over the winter Dan added JAWS to his ZiPS forecast and in the edition he gave me, Harper finishes with a 48.8 JAWS, which would place him 25th between Gary Sheffield and Enos Slaughter — a possible HOFer and a Vet Committee one. Considering that figure represents a distribution I'd say he's maybe got a 40% chance now but has to make a strong rebound with a few more star-level years to get back above 50. It's doable.

Westburg fan

2:28

I know it’s not really your department but where is Eric’s “Best of the Post-Hype Prospects” article? Was originally slated to be released yesterday

Jay Jaffe

2:29

I'm told through the editorial grapevine that "there weren’t really enough dudes" to fill out a piece at this time.

Broken Bat

2:29

Thanks for response I had wrong name Newman is the ex Buc name.

Jay Jaffe

2:30

Hello, Newman... Kevin Newman is now penciled in as the Reds' SS and no, I don't see this making the Dodgers perk up, as he's netted 2.0 WAR with a 77 wRC+ in 1,663 PA. Not happening.

Rich Allen and the Ebonistics

2:30

Votto's fine and all but
Dick Allen >>Joey Votto

Jay Jaffe

2:30

They should both wind up in the Hall of Fame; it's not either/or.

John

2:33

Did you see Max Scherzer calling his own pitches on pitchcom? Do you think we will see most veteran pitchers doing this by the end of the season?

Jay Jaffe

2:36

I only read about it, didn't see. I'm not sure all that many veterans will have the latitude to call their own games via PitchCom; Scherzer, given his stature, has. Maybe it plants the seed for more pitchers to do it, though.

scrapper

2:37

Can we please keep the whining to a minimum about violations by hitters and pitchers of the pitch clock? The players will quickly adjust and fans and players will both enjoy the snappier pace of play.

Jay Jaffe

2:37

I though The Athletic's Marc Carig nailed it:

It is good that these rules mistakes are happening now in the fake baseball games and not the real baseball games. Adjusting to the rules is a great use of fake baseball.

scrapper

2:39

Player under 25 who you are most confident will some day be inducted into the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe

2:40

Juan Soto, 23.2 bWAR through his age-23 season and heading into age 24. Next closest who's heading into age 24 is Vladito but just 13.2 bWAR. Next closest who just finished age 24 is Acuña but just 17.6 bWAR; I don't have nearly as much confidence in either at this point, which isn't to say the potential's not there.

Birds

2:40

John Angelos, after leaving payroll flat this winter, declining to renew the Orioles lease, saying that new investors didn't have to be connected to Baltimore, that the Orioles over-performed last year, weren't there yet for a payroll over $100M, and that it was lucky the O's had gutted their team when the pandemic hit, went on to say in regard to payroll, "I would be disappointed if we’re not the next Tampa".

As an O's fan, on a scale of 1 to swift-kick-to-the-junk-if-I-ever-see-him, how should I feel about this abominable man?

Jay Jaffe

2:42

I think you should hope that the Angelos family's ownership of the Orioles is very near its end, but that's not to say that it is. Ugh. He's among the worst in the game right now.

JWR

2:42

Which Hall of Fame selection in the last 10 years was the least defensible?

Jay Jaffe

2:44

The Harold Baines was the least defensible choice of the last 40 years, at least. I'd posit that Rick Ferrell's Veterans Committee selection in 1984 is the most recent rival.

Wireless Joe Jackson

2:44

It isn't so much about Rojas taking over for Lux, but who takes over for Rojas? Chris Taylor, who you can put there but is more of an emergency option, and then ?????. They really need a competent backup.

Jay Jaffe

2:49

Yonny Hernandez is the next man up in the utility sweepstakes; Eric Longenhagen saw some hope for him last year, writing, "A gritty, gamer-type prospect, Hernandez's ability to get on top of fastballs and his infield versatility make him a 1 WAR utility infield sort." He had more here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/arizona-makes-savvy-opportunistic-trade-fo...

As for who else could take over for Rojas, I think the answer is blowin' in the wind... it will be somebody from a waiver wire or small-time late-spring trade.

Duel

2:51

Will 2023 have more 40+HR seasons or 40+SB seasons amongst players?

Jay Jaffe

2:53

I'd say homers, even given the new rules. Last year there were four 40-HR guys, one 40-SB guy, and over the past four full seasons, the margin is 22-9. I just don't think teams are as geared to run as they were 20 years ago. I'd welcome more steals if they do come about via these rules.

GBS42

2:53

Jay, do you think the degree by which elite players from a century ago dominated the competition skews our perception of what a Hall of Famer is, whether by JAWS, traditional stats, or simply, "He feels like a Hall of Famer" standards?

Jay Jaffe

2:55

To some degree, yes. The problem is that the quality of competition was lower, and so the WARs of the best players were higher. At a time before television (and at the dawn of radio), those players nonetheless captivated the public imagination, and their legends have been burnished by a century of repetiion.

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:56

Is Joey Votto's markup of C. Trent Rosecrans' oral history of Joey Votto enough to push Votto over the Hall of Fame threshold?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

Ha, I loved that one. https://theathletic.com/4191913/2023/02/27/joey-votto-reds-oral-histor...

I have said this before but I do think that Votto's public persona will greatly benefit his case. He's already a stathead darling who's 12th in JAWS despite low-for-a-1B totals of hits (2,093) and homers (342), but what he's been able to do beyond that by displaying his offbeat sense of humor and deep curiosity is humanize himself, giving him a more broad-based appeal.

3:00

I don't think there will be many voters who conclude he wasn't good enough for the game of baseball to warrant election.

Guest

3:00

Are you a coffee, tea or water guy?

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Oaktown Blues

7:18

The "I can't name six A's" thing is really lame coming from a professional baseball journalist. We all wish they didn't tear down, there's no need for cheap shots.

Time Is A Flat Circle

6:25

What would you set the pitch clock at for people asking questions in your chats? And your answers?

Oaktown Blues

6:35

Do you think Nick Allen will hit enough to be a starting shortstop?

Chip

6:36

Any chance the Dodgers kick the tires on IKF with Lux going down?

GBS42

3:08

I don't. Rojas probably is similar enough to IKF that there's no need to trade anything to get him.

Colton

6:36

The Lux going down for the season, what are the offs the Dodgers jump into the trade market for a SS?

Oaktown Blues

6:40

I know you're not the prospect coverage guy, but since you're the one chatting: Is the "prospect limbo" article from Prospects week still on the way?

Tacoby Bellsbury

6:46

With Gavin Lux going down for the year during spring training, what other consequential season-altering spring training injuries come to mind for you?

Guest

6:48

I'm generally into the pitch clock but worried that the delicious tension of late-and-close situations will be defused. What do you think about suspending the clock in save situations?

Guest

6:51

is there a rule of thumb about what kind of prospect it would take to dump a contract? 10 million a year in salary dump is going to cost an XYZ FV prospect type of equation?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:51

Give me your top ten reasons for not moving Chris Taylor to SS full-time.

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:51

Lux out two years? Reaction?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:51

Was Sandy really the Greatest?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:52

Who's more annoying: Mets' or Padres' fans?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:52

Does MLB want the Nationals to win at the expense of all other teams?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:52

Why is the MLB schedule so unfair to the Mets?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:53

Finding Nimmo: How much should a Mets' fan freak out about his not playing yet after signing an 8-year deal?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:53

Is this an appropriate time to panic?

Derek

6:55

Spring Training is always such a double-edged sword... Excitement for the impending return of real baseball, but man, injuries suck.

RTJ

7:01

Dodgers :(

Joe

7:02

Think the Orioles and Dodgers could match up in a deal for an IF (Urias, Mateo)?

Guest

7:14

Ok, have to get in a crazy prospect trade in. Bobby Miller (LAD) for Oswald Peraza (NYY). Who says no?

Krusty

7:15

Sort of a zoomed out question(s): it's 2023, so how much stock should we put into publicly available defensive metrics, esp. for infield defense? Are some better than others? And relatedly, how much does our public understanding of defense differ from what MLB front offices think? Thanks so much!!!

glt4dc

7:16

Rob Manfred has empowered you to remove any MLB rule which you despise...but you have to replace it with a "Banana Ball" rule. What rule do you remove and what do you swap in?

mike

7:16

Has anyone offered a good argument against the clock, or is it mostly cranky people that hate change? Because the clock is GREAT, IMO.

Scott

7:18

This offseason, we've seen ownership groups say all the right things (Phillies, Padres, Mets) AND all the wrong things (Orioles, Reds) with regards to spending and actually caring about being competitive. At this point, what's the breakdown between penny-pinching misers who are agnostic about competing and owners who genuinely care about putting a good product on the field?

Mike

7:19

They should lower the mound imo

Sanford

7:20

Is there an active player's HOF case you'll be paying especially close attention to this year?

And (in case your answer is different), whose HOF case would benefit the most from winning an MVP this year, à la Goldschmidt in '22? Another win for Trout wouldn't do much for his case except bring him even further into the inner circle, but I feel like José Ramírez or Lindor finally breaking through and winning one would position them well. (Despite finishing as runner ups last year, seems like Machado and Arenado are on their way regardless of hardware.)

Vermonty

7:22

Who has the better year? Stanton or Donaldson?

Jeter

7:22

If Jeter had played an average 2B, how much better would his career war have been? Would it have been better for the Yankees?

Non-HOF greatness

7:24

The 2017 Astros and 2022 Dodgers were littered with stars who may not make the HOF due to career length or sustained greatness. How often are teams sustained by a core of 5-6 WAR players who fail to make the HOF? What team had the biggest collection of such players?

Guest

7:25

How the Padres/Machado negotiations went: P: "Manny, we'd love to have you here for a long time. How much money do you want to stick around?" M: "Hmmm. Something like 8 years, $270 million?" P: "No way. How about 10 years, 320 million?" "Uhh sure, that sounds good." P: "No wait, how about 11 years, $350 million?!"

7:26

First to win a WS, Padres or Yankees?

Joey Giallo

7:28

Player salaries jumped 4.8% (which is below inflation) from last season, but most of the data shows this increase accruing to an increasingly smaller % of players and reducing the middle class of players. With more players signing pre-arb extensions at a discount, which reduces the actual arbitration amounts for players who don't, the economic edge seemingly always comes up on the owners' side. I believe this inequality has sown distrust so deep it ironically reduces inertia for the non-economic types of changes needed to keep baseball adaptable and relevant. Do you think what we are seeing is a prelude to a much larger fight (in effect a Civil War) between players and owners? Or do you see Baseball more as the Jim Crow South which lags decades behind other sports who don't conspire so much to keep their players down? I know the analogue is sloppy and insensitive, but it is difficult to count Baseball's successes when compared to the increasing popularity of almost every North American sport.

Alex

7:29

Between Kluber, Paxton, and Sale, which of these oft-injured, aging Red Sox hurler do you see most likely as having a bounceback season? What does that look like?

Harper

7:30

does Harper have a chance to get into the Hall with the Ortiz approach? Produce excellent counting stats while being co feared as a superstar

Guest

7:31

Wat does Elvin Andrus gotta do to make the hall of fame

Harper

7:31

Does Harper have a chance to make the hall in the Ortiz model as a superstar hitter who accumulated strong counting numbers, has big postseason moments, and generally is considered a superstar despite relatively lower career WAR and JAWS scores?

Aloha

7:33

I know this is not really your thing, but any idea why Phillies fans are so, so....sociopathic?

GLS

7:38

The White Sox seem to be aiming for a middle of the pack, mediocre season, which is sort of typical for them. But what do you think the chances are of a complete collapse? It just seems to me that Benintendi was the ultimate band aid signing and that there really isn't much of value there, though they do have some good pieces.

Baseball Simp

7:38

Have you seen anything suggesting z-contact and chase rates in ST translate to the regular season?

Rich Allen and the Ebonistics

7:38

Not either or

Rich Allen and the Ebonistics

7:39

I know You're in the choir.

Rich Allen and the Ebonistics

7:41

"Birds" is a smart person

Birds

7:45

I just wandered through roster resource and saw the Mets have 21 players on guaranteed contracts! I don't even know what my question is, but that's gotta be some kind of record.

Tacoby Bellsbury

7:45

Run-DMC in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame is less defensible than Baines

Mike

7:46

Thoughts on baseball prospectus's new defense metric DRP? I find their metrics very compelling in general. I especially like that they can make them work for players of any era

Dan

7:50

When a teams fangraph depth charts change in preseason without an injury or roster change is that more likely to be updated projections or updated play time projections?

Guest

7:52

If Soto was hypothetically 45 years old right now and finished his career with something like a .270 batting average, 350 homers and a .420 OBP, would he have trouble getting into the Hall? I feel like his future case will be made much more fortunate in that 20 years from now, voters will likely be way more analytically-minded. Like, how far fetched is a Bobby Abreu to Juan Soto comparison?

Wireless Joe Jackson

7:52

The problem is Taylor was already playing full time all over the field, and if Yonny Hernandez gets more than about 70 PAs for a team like the Dodgers it's hard to call it anything but a roster construction failure.

Mariner

7:52

RICKY TIEDEMANN. HE LOOKED LEGIT TODAY. Why do you guys have him debuting in 2026? He looks like he could slot in this year! or at least next.

Guest

7:54

Best of the post hype prospects could be one and we’d still read it

Mariner

7:55

Who are the most intriguing under the radar prospect(s) do you enjoy keeping tabs on?

Media impact

7:55

Do you think the current access to players outside of one’s immediate market will change the way we look at hall of fame caliber players?

Dan

7:56

How many pitchers would be useful pinch runners if not for injury concerns?

Dodgers ss

7:56

if Rojas doesn’t work what shortstops are available? The dodgers have so much prospect depth they could easily trade some for a real upgrade

Hypothetical position question

7:58

Would it be better for a player like Freeman or Goldy’s HOF chances to switch now and play a -3dwar 3B and rack up the positional adjustment value or continue to play 1B?

Jeff

8:02

Most interesting individual season if transported 100 years back or forward (but not past present day)? Pedro '1899-1900 comes to mind

x2R

8:03

I just hope he writes a book, if he hasnt, about hitting and funny stories, like Ted Williams. Something like that about how he changes bat, HRs up, then down and... lets get to my old bat

Spencer

8:03

In your opinion, what would be best statistic to look at for a pitcher and also a hitter to determine their effectiveness?

Petey Bienel

8:04

How many good HoF candidates were on the Nats of 2012-19? Scherzer, Soto, coin clip on Harper, maybe Turner can enter the conversation . . . probably not their best WAR player (Rendon) or their WS MVP.

Sunny Day Mood

8:07

Best radio broadcast team in MLB. Or best three.

JudgeAWS

8:08

..did you notice that if Judge has two more 5bWAR seasons, he's top ten all time for RF WAR7? That season did a lot of work.

Marc Kartman

8:08

It seems doubtful given the cost of high-end shortstops on the open market that the

Marc Kartman

8:09

It seems doubtful given the price of high end shortstops on the. open. market that the

Tstats

8:11

Did you catch ricky tiedemanns outing? G A S

Marc Kartman

8:12

It seems doubtful given the. price of high end shortstops on the open market that the Brewers will be able to lock up Adames long term. What would you think the price would be for the Dodgers to trade for him now or at the deadline if the Crew thinks Turang can take over at a fraction of the cost?

Sunny Day Mood

8:13

i’m getting four new tires put on my Prius right now and I neglected to ask how much it was going to cost. What are the odds I pay over $600?

Mac

8:14

What kind of return would you think is required if you were the Yankees and trading Gleyber Torres? I don’t see a team giving them equivalent value at a position of need, so I’d rather just not

Water Tester

8:16

Who takes a victory lap in the court of public opinion sooner, Altuve or Rowling?

Mike

9:13

why would rowling ever get a victory lap?

Wireless Joe Jackson

8:22

I will pay $50 for Verlander's Clemens-as-a-chicken impersonation right now.

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