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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/28/23

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Jay Jaffe

3:01

Coffee, 2 large cups a day in the morning. When I had COVID a few weeks ago it was the first time i made myself tea in maybe a decade.

I do drink a ton of water, mainly seltzer with a splash of grapefruit juice. This helped me cut soda almost entirely out of my diet.

Birds

3:01

Yankees have a crowded infield even before Volpe arrives. The OF/DH situation is a collection of china dolls and Judge (not exactly a paragon of health either). Who in the infield could manage LF or something?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

We've already seen Oswaldo Cabrera (not to be confused with Oswald Peraza) take up the outfield after spending virtually all of his minor league career at second, short, or third. I would expect him to see more time in the pasture than on the dirt, and that's the way our Depth Charts folks see it as well.

Dalton Wilcox

3:04

How comparable is Machado to Adrian Beltre?

Jay Jaffe

3:09

I think Manny is a future Hall of Famer but Beltré is fourth all-time in JAWS at third base, and Dan's long-term ZiPS forecast has Machado landing closer to ninth or 10th. Manny has the better bat by wRC+ or OPS+ but a long way to go to reach the 3,000/400 milestones that Beltré reached. Beltré has the better glove — the best this side of Brooks Robinson in fielding runs — while Manny is already descending towards average. A very flashy and entertaining descent at this juncture, but a descent nonetheless.

Mets Fan

3:10

Do you think there is any chance the mets trade carrasco at this point? I know you need depth, but David Peterson is probably better than carrasco now and should be in the rotation

Jay Jaffe

3:13

I would think that your time as a Mets fan has made it abundantly clear that you can't have too much starting pitching, and I wouldn't expect Carrasco to be traded *at this point* (i.e., this spring). As the nominal 6th starter, Peterson will certainly get his chances in the rotation this year if he's healthy, and if he's outpitching Carrasco (or anyone else), the Mets will adjust accordingly.

olethros

3:14

I'm surprised you didn't mention Morris as a subpar HoF honoree.

Jay Jaffe

3:15

I was too locked into my thinking in terms of position players, but yes, that one rivals it. Morris is now <whistles> 164th in S-JAWS.

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow

3:16

Did you see/hear that the Mets held closed to the press drills this week? What do you think Showalter has up his sleeve to mess with the new pitch clock rules?

Jay Jaffe

3:17

herds of wild dogs unleashed onto the field; a Marlinator-like contraption popping up out of the apple in center; Justin Verlander doing a Roger-Clemens-as-Chicken impersonation.

Joe

3:18

The worst part about John Angelos is that no one even brings him up when talking about bad owners. Not only is he terrible, he's irrelevant!

Jay Jaffe

3:19

Man, that's gotta sting, but he's working on becoming as obnoxious and tone deaf as Phil Castellini, so I wouldn't lose hope entirely.

Best path for Altuve

3:20

assuming health, what would be Altuve’s best path to the HOF? Remaining a declining MIF who hits or shifting this year to DH and taking a bigger WAR hit but racking up counting numbers?

Jay Jaffe

3:21

It's probably in making a run at 3,000 hits. FWIW Dan's long-term ZiPS spreadsheet had him finishing at 2,715 hits and 49.1 JAWS, which is a little light but above Pedrioa/Kinsler/Kent and probably gets it done.

Drew

3:23

I know a trade between the Padres and Dodgers would never happen at this level, but Kim for Bobby Miller would be a lot of fun to see. Both teams get what they need right now.

Jay Jaffe

3:23

I'm sure it has to gnaw at the Dodgers that the team they're now chasing has about 17 guys who are better shortstop options than Rojas. Including Machado.

Birds

3:24

Scherzer was 24 his first full season and 28 the first time he was an All-Star. What guy who's currently in his mid-20s that's not a star is going to end up a HOF slam dunk?

Jay Jaffe

3:26

it's tough to think about this in terms of starters given the prospect of that path looking so dire due to reduced workloads. Sticking with position players, Kyle Tucker has banked ~11 WAR over the past two seasons at ages 24-25 and even though he made his first All-Star team and won his first Gold Glove I think he's still a bit under the radar.

JudgeAWS

3:27

Judge needs two more 5bWAR seasons to be top ten all time in RF WAR7. That 2022 season did a lot of work.

Jay Jaffe

3:29

Those big yers certainly help a WAR7. Mookie Betts banking a 10.7 and a 9.5 has helped him to a WAR7 of 50.5, which is already eighth among right fielders... and he's played just nine seasons, with one the pandemic short season and another his 52-game rookie campaign.

Blue Jay Jaffe

3:30

At the park with a friend and we are seeing some butterflies, wasps, and other pollinators. Here's to hoping for awesome weather and the start of some baseball Jay!

Jay Jaffe

3:30

Amen

John

3:30

Is the Catcher Pitchcom receiver an earpiece? What's the workaround for the hitter not hearing

Jay Jaffe

3:32

It's not an earpiece, it uses bone-conducting technology that's inaudible to anyone not wearing it. I wrote about it here last year https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-signs-on-to-in-game-usage-of-wearable-...

Guest

3:32

Speaking of Mookie, what's he gotta do to pretty much solidify a Hall of Fame career? A few more seasons of 30 homers and 5/6 WAR?

Jay Jaffe

3:34

Mookie's already 15th in JAWS, just 3.2 points below the standard. I think his biggest issue is getting to 2,000 hits (he has 1,306) and not making that contract look too ridiculous as it winds down (he's signed through 2032)

HOF “feel”

3:35

How much stock in your voting do you give the idea of someone “feeling” like a HOF for an extended period of his career. The anti-Rolen crowd uses this argument against him because we’ve largely changed the way we evaluate talent, but it has an interesting idea in affirming hof’ers with less than stellar JAWS scores

Jay Jaffe

3:36

I think my lack of support for guys who had a few great years at the pinnacle and then either padded their stats in rather value-free fashion like Dave Parker or else faded away too early like Don Mattingly or Dale Murphy gives you a sense of where I fall on this one.

Connecting…

Oaktown Blues

7:18

The "I can't name six A's" thing is really lame coming from a professional baseball journalist. We all wish they didn't tear down, there's no need for cheap shots.

Time Is A Flat Circle

6:25

What would you set the pitch clock at for people asking questions in your chats? And your answers?

Oaktown Blues

6:35

Do you think Nick Allen will hit enough to be a starting shortstop?

Chip

6:36

Any chance the Dodgers kick the tires on IKF with Lux going down?

GBS42

3:08

I don't. Rojas probably is similar enough to IKF that there's no need to trade anything to get him.

Colton

6:36

The Lux going down for the season, what are the offs the Dodgers jump into the trade market for a SS?

Oaktown Blues

6:40

I know you're not the prospect coverage guy, but since you're the one chatting: Is the "prospect limbo" article from Prospects week still on the way?

Tacoby Bellsbury

6:46

With Gavin Lux going down for the year during spring training, what other consequential season-altering spring training injuries come to mind for you?

Guest

6:48

I'm generally into the pitch clock but worried that the delicious tension of late-and-close situations will be defused. What do you think about suspending the clock in save situations?

Guest

6:51

is there a rule of thumb about what kind of prospect it would take to dump a contract? 10 million a year in salary dump is going to cost an XYZ FV prospect type of equation?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:51

Give me your top ten reasons for not moving Chris Taylor to SS full-time.

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:51

Lux out two years? Reaction?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:51

Was Sandy really the Greatest?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:52

Who's more annoying: Mets' or Padres' fans?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:52

Does MLB want the Nationals to win at the expense of all other teams?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:52

Why is the MLB schedule so unfair to the Mets?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:53

Finding Nimmo: How much should a Mets' fan freak out about his not playing yet after signing an 8-year deal?

TheVoiceInYourHead

6:53

Is this an appropriate time to panic?

Derek

6:55

Spring Training is always such a double-edged sword... Excitement for the impending return of real baseball, but man, injuries suck.

RTJ

7:01

Dodgers :(

Joe

7:02

Think the Orioles and Dodgers could match up in a deal for an IF (Urias, Mateo)?

Guest

7:14

Ok, have to get in a crazy prospect trade in. Bobby Miller (LAD) for Oswald Peraza (NYY). Who says no?

Krusty

7:15

Sort of a zoomed out question(s): it's 2023, so how much stock should we put into publicly available defensive metrics, esp. for infield defense? Are some better than others? And relatedly, how much does our public understanding of defense differ from what MLB front offices think? Thanks so much!!!

glt4dc

7:16

Rob Manfred has empowered you to remove any MLB rule which you despise...but you have to replace it with a "Banana Ball" rule. What rule do you remove and what do you swap in?

mike

7:16

Has anyone offered a good argument against the clock, or is it mostly cranky people that hate change? Because the clock is GREAT, IMO.

Scott

7:18

This offseason, we've seen ownership groups say all the right things (Phillies, Padres, Mets) AND all the wrong things (Orioles, Reds) with regards to spending and actually caring about being competitive. At this point, what's the breakdown between penny-pinching misers who are agnostic about competing and owners who genuinely care about putting a good product on the field?

Mike

7:19

They should lower the mound imo

Sanford

7:20

Is there an active player's HOF case you'll be paying especially close attention to this year?

And (in case your answer is different), whose HOF case would benefit the most from winning an MVP this year, à la Goldschmidt in '22? Another win for Trout wouldn't do much for his case except bring him even further into the inner circle, but I feel like José Ramírez or Lindor finally breaking through and winning one would position them well. (Despite finishing as runner ups last year, seems like Machado and Arenado are on their way regardless of hardware.)

Vermonty

7:22

Who has the better year? Stanton or Donaldson?

Jeter

7:22

If Jeter had played an average 2B, how much better would his career war have been? Would it have been better for the Yankees?

Non-HOF greatness

7:24

The 2017 Astros and 2022 Dodgers were littered with stars who may not make the HOF due to career length or sustained greatness. How often are teams sustained by a core of 5-6 WAR players who fail to make the HOF? What team had the biggest collection of such players?

Guest

7:25

How the Padres/Machado negotiations went: P: "Manny, we'd love to have you here for a long time. How much money do you want to stick around?" M: "Hmmm. Something like 8 years, $270 million?" P: "No way. How about 10 years, 320 million?" "Uhh sure, that sounds good." P: "No wait, how about 11 years, $350 million?!"

7:26

First to win a WS, Padres or Yankees?

Joey Giallo

7:28

Player salaries jumped 4.8% (which is below inflation) from last season, but most of the data shows this increase accruing to an increasingly smaller % of players and reducing the middle class of players. With more players signing pre-arb extensions at a discount, which reduces the actual arbitration amounts for players who don't, the economic edge seemingly always comes up on the owners' side. I believe this inequality has sown distrust so deep it ironically reduces inertia for the non-economic types of changes needed to keep baseball adaptable and relevant. Do you think what we are seeing is a prelude to a much larger fight (in effect a Civil War) between players and owners? Or do you see Baseball more as the Jim Crow South which lags decades behind other sports who don't conspire so much to keep their players down? I know the analogue is sloppy and insensitive, but it is difficult to count Baseball's successes when compared to the increasing popularity of almost every North American sport.

Alex

7:29

Between Kluber, Paxton, and Sale, which of these oft-injured, aging Red Sox hurler do you see most likely as having a bounceback season? What does that look like?

Harper

7:30

does Harper have a chance to get into the Hall with the Ortiz approach? Produce excellent counting stats while being co feared as a superstar

Guest

7:31

Wat does Elvin Andrus gotta do to make the hall of fame

Harper

7:31

Does Harper have a chance to make the hall in the Ortiz model as a superstar hitter who accumulated strong counting numbers, has big postseason moments, and generally is considered a superstar despite relatively lower career WAR and JAWS scores?

Aloha

7:33

I know this is not really your thing, but any idea why Phillies fans are so, so....sociopathic?

GLS

7:38

The White Sox seem to be aiming for a middle of the pack, mediocre season, which is sort of typical for them. But what do you think the chances are of a complete collapse? It just seems to me that Benintendi was the ultimate band aid signing and that there really isn't much of value there, though they do have some good pieces.

Baseball Simp

7:38

Have you seen anything suggesting z-contact and chase rates in ST translate to the regular season?

Rich Allen and the Ebonistics

7:38

Not either or

Rich Allen and the Ebonistics

7:39

I know You're in the choir.

Rich Allen and the Ebonistics

7:41

"Birds" is a smart person

Birds

7:45

I just wandered through roster resource and saw the Mets have 21 players on guaranteed contracts! I don't even know what my question is, but that's gotta be some kind of record.

Tacoby Bellsbury

7:45

Run-DMC in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame is less defensible than Baines

Mike

7:46

Thoughts on baseball prospectus's new defense metric DRP? I find their metrics very compelling in general. I especially like that they can make them work for players of any era

Dan

7:50

When a teams fangraph depth charts change in preseason without an injury or roster change is that more likely to be updated projections or updated play time projections?

Guest

7:52

If Soto was hypothetically 45 years old right now and finished his career with something like a .270 batting average, 350 homers and a .420 OBP, would he have trouble getting into the Hall? I feel like his future case will be made much more fortunate in that 20 years from now, voters will likely be way more analytically-minded. Like, how far fetched is a Bobby Abreu to Juan Soto comparison?

Wireless Joe Jackson

7:52

The problem is Taylor was already playing full time all over the field, and if Yonny Hernandez gets more than about 70 PAs for a team like the Dodgers it's hard to call it anything but a roster construction failure.

Mariner

7:52

RICKY TIEDEMANN. HE LOOKED LEGIT TODAY. Why do you guys have him debuting in 2026? He looks like he could slot in this year! or at least next.

Guest

7:54

Best of the post hype prospects could be one and we’d still read it

Mariner

7:55

Who are the most intriguing under the radar prospect(s) do you enjoy keeping tabs on?

Media impact

7:55

Do you think the current access to players outside of one’s immediate market will change the way we look at hall of fame caliber players?

Dan

7:56

How many pitchers would be useful pinch runners if not for injury concerns?

Dodgers ss

7:56

if Rojas doesn’t work what shortstops are available? The dodgers have so much prospect depth they could easily trade some for a real upgrade

Hypothetical position question

7:58

Would it be better for a player like Freeman or Goldy’s HOF chances to switch now and play a -3dwar 3B and rack up the positional adjustment value or continue to play 1B?

Jeff

8:02

Most interesting individual season if transported 100 years back or forward (but not past present day)? Pedro '1899-1900 comes to mind

x2R

8:03

I just hope he writes a book, if he hasnt, about hitting and funny stories, like Ted Williams. Something like that about how he changes bat, HRs up, then down and... lets get to my old bat

Spencer

8:03

In your opinion, what would be best statistic to look at for a pitcher and also a hitter to determine their effectiveness?

Petey Bienel

8:04

How many good HoF candidates were on the Nats of 2012-19? Scherzer, Soto, coin clip on Harper, maybe Turner can enter the conversation . . . probably not their best WAR player (Rendon) or their WS MVP.

Sunny Day Mood

8:07

Best radio broadcast team in MLB. Or best three.

JudgeAWS

8:08

..did you notice that if Judge has two more 5bWAR seasons, he's top ten all time for RF WAR7? That season did a lot of work.

Marc Kartman

8:08

It seems doubtful given the cost of high-end shortstops on the open market that the

Marc Kartman

8:09

It seems doubtful given the price of high end shortstops on the. open. market that the

Tstats

8:11

Did you catch ricky tiedemanns outing? G A S

Marc Kartman

8:12

It seems doubtful given the. price of high end shortstops on the open market that the Brewers will be able to lock up Adames long term. What would you think the price would be for the Dodgers to trade for him now or at the deadline if the Crew thinks Turang can take over at a fraction of the cost?

Sunny Day Mood

8:13

i’m getting four new tires put on my Prius right now and I neglected to ask how much it was going to cost. What are the odds I pay over $600?

Mac

8:14

What kind of return would you think is required if you were the Yankees and trading Gleyber Torres? I don’t see a team giving them equivalent value at a position of need, so I’d rather just not

Water Tester

8:16

Who takes a victory lap in the court of public opinion sooner, Altuve or Rowling?

Mike

9:13

why would rowling ever get a victory lap?

Wireless Joe Jackson

8:22

I will pay $50 for Verlander's Clemens-as-a-chicken impersonation right now.

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