JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/3/20

Jay Jaffe

12:02

Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to today's chat, which — as the first day after the Super Bowl — marks the dawn of baseball season, as far as I'm concerned. Pitchers and catchers is so close I can see it.

12:03

I'm working on the laptop today, as my desktop computer — the Mac Mini I bought in December 2018 — melted down like 5 minutes after I set off my Dusty Baker piece last Thursday. Hence, this may not be a full-length chat as I can only take so much one-window-at-a-time nonsense with this setup. Anyway, please bear with me.

Chris

12:03

So mookie to the dodgers and prospects to the redsox? Is Jerry dipoto gonna take on salary and get involved in this?

Jay Jaffe

12:04

From what I've heard, Price may be in the deal as well. If this does go down, we'll have lots of stuff here, including me on the main trade writeup

Guest

12:06

How concerned are you about Sale's arm injuries going forward?

Jay Jaffe

12:09

people have been predicting gloom and doom with Sale since before he even reached the majors, but until the past 2 years, he'd always been remarkably healhty. Now, he's made just 52 starts over the past two seasons and saw a fall-off in performance and velo — down 2 mph from 2018, via Pitch Info — so yeah, I'd say it's time to be at least somewhat concerned.

Cam

12:10

With Jeter Downs possibly being traded to the Red Sox for Betts, do you see him as their future 2nd baseman?

Jay Jaffe

12:12

That seems possible — Kiley and Eric said last May that he has a non-zero chance of sticking at shortstop, but I think the general feeling is that he's better suited to second.

Dave

12:13

Who is your favorite person named Jay that isn't you?

Jay Jaffe

12:15

hmmm. from a baseball standpoint it's probably Jay Buhner

From a broader cultural standpoint.... I'd have to think a bit longer.

12:16

Years and years ago at Futility Infielder, I did a history on all the ballplayers named Jay up to that point. Most of them were pretty mediocre but Buhner really stood out

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:17

Do you have a recommended scorebook? Bob Carpenter's scorebook lets you write in the defense over a diamond, which I love, but is cramped and lacks diamonds within each cell. The Eephus Halfliner seems to be the hot thing but the defensive alignment is so helpful when I don't know players...

Jay Jaffe

12:18

I used the Carpenter scorebooks for a long while, but I've had a compact BBWAA one that I got as a gift a long time ago, soon after I got into the org

12:19

wait, it wasn't the Carpenter ones it was the C.S Peterson ones that I used for a long time. sorry

12:20

A friend gave me a couple of those Eephus League ones which really appeal to the design nerd in me. I handed one to a friend for his 8 year old son and he reaally took to it

John

12:20

Do you think Arenado gets traded before the season? And if so, who do you think is the favorite?

Jay Jaffe

12:21

Not unless the contract is restructured to get rid of the opt-out because that's basically a built-in dealbreaker

Colby

12:21

Are the Dbacks legit contenders? Opinion on Luke Weaver?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

I'd call them Wild Card contenders. i don't see them (or anybody else in the NL West) overtaking the Dodgers but I think they're capable of something along the lines of last year. Weaver, if he's healthy, looks like a good midrotation guy

Adam

12:24

All the trade chatter about Price surrounds his underwater contract, but purely on performance what do you expect from him next year? Is he basically a #4/5 guy on the Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe

12:26

I think he'd be greatly helped by any change of scenery, and a move from the AL East to the NL West is probably optimal in terms of pitching environments. If he's healthy I don't see why he can't be a mid-rotation guy, but the health has to be a question mark now

Tony Z

12:26

Who has the best 2020: Brendan McKay, Jesus Luzardo or Nate Pearson?

Jay Jaffe

12:27

I'd go with Luzardo, especially because I doubt the Blue Jays are in a hurry to push Pearson

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:27

Verlander's HOF chances - do they take a major hit with the Astros' sign stealing scandal, or does the fact that he was traded into the org (as opposed to willingly signing with them) spare him from major judgment?

Jay Jaffe

12:30

I don't really see where you can hang sign-stealing culpability on a pitcher to any degree that you could a hitter. Did he know about it? Most likely. Did he benefit from it? Almost certainly. Is he a hypocrite given how outspoken he's been about other teams' and players' infractions? Yes indeed. But it had no impact on his own performance, so I fail to see how one can dock him for it.

Lyle

12:30

Re: Position for Jeter Downs: just how bad is Downs' defense at shortstop? In Boston, he'd be vying with Bogaets for playing time there, and Bogaerts was terrible by DRS and Infield Outs Above Average last year.

Jay Jaffe

12:32

I highly suggest asking a prospect guy instead of me. I'm only going on what those guys write. Yes, Bogaerts' metrics have been bad by some measures, but I can't think of a scenario where an All-Star is pushed off a position by a prospect whose own ability to stick at that position is a question mark

Pat's Bat

12:33

Would you ever withhold your 10th vote from a sure thing HoF candidate like Jeter or Rivera to try and keep a lesser candidate like Abreu on the ballot?

Jay Jaffe

12:35

If unanimity were in question? No. There's almost certainly a better play than that, a guy who won't make it this year and who wouldn't miss my vote.

Also, I'm happy to see Abreu survive to a second ballot but even having pored over his numbers, i remain far from convinced he's HOF-worthy. I left him off my virtual ballot

MTL

12:36

Besides Betts, do you expect any other high profile trades in the next couple of weeks?

Jay Jaffe

12:37

I'd think that there's a good chance Kris Bryant is traded, because the Cubs are committed to being foolishly tight-fisted this winter. No on Nolan Arenado, for reasons noted above

Guille

12:37

Mike Ford has to at least get a long look at playing time vs RH in spring training, right? he mashed last season, and NYY is short on LH bats

Jay Jaffe

12:39

I would think so, though I believe that the hope is that a healthy Voit reclaims the job. Plus Andujar may be in the mix for reps there too. Ford's really going to have to stand out to stick

WinTwins410

12:40

Jay, good afternoon and thanks for doing these chats. I know Hall of Fame season is over for now, but will you indulge me this topic? Are there any traditional counting statistics minimums that make a guy an automatic HoFer in your mind, regardless of more advanced statistics? When I was growing up (late 1970s/early 1980s), I always had felt that 3,000 hits and/or 500 HRs or 300 wins was automatic or close to it -- and yes, I know that it took numerous tries for Harmon Killebrew (573 HRs), Gaylord Perry (314 wins) and Don Sutton (324 wins) to get in. Today, obviously, due to PEDs and gambling, stars in each of those buckets are on the outside looking in. In your mind, is there a statistical threshold in any of those three counting categories that makes someone an automatic HOFer? 3,400 hits? (Jeter is above it) 600 (or 700) HRs? 350 wins? Or going in the other direction, say, 250 or 275 wins? What are your thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

12:41

3,000 hits should be automatic unless Nick Markakis or somebody of his ilk reaches that threshold. Obviously, 500 homers is no longer a guarantee of anything, and I don't really care much about pitcher wins by themselves.

mcgiveittome

12:42

as a twins fan the sentiment seems to be that they don’t have nearly enough pitching to potentially compete in the playoffs and there isn't anyone to acquire via trade by July 31st that would make a difference. Agree or disagree?

Jay Jaffe

12:43

I'd say that they need some best-case scenarios — comebacks by Pineda and Hill to go well. But I wouldn't sweat there being nobody to acquire on July 31. There's always somebody even if it's not a true ace.

12:43

Who gets into the Hall of Famer sooner: Andruw Jones or Ronald Acuña Jr.?

Jay Jaffe

12:44

Given that we're likely talking about a 20-25 year horizon for Acuña, I'd take the bet that Jones gets there within that window.

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