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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/3/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
Good afternoon, folks! Greetings from Brooklyn, where it's almost freezing — which seems genuinely balmy after temperatures in the teens all last week. We're apparently in the midst of the longest stretch of sub-freezing days in NYC in the past 65 years. Hoping my new space heater arrives today, but wish it had been around last week (I have a lower-powered but less energy-efficient one).
12:04
After taking a few days off last week to recuperate from te Hall of Fame election cycle crunch, yesterday I wrote about the Giants signing Luis Arraez to a one-year deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-second-thought-giants-sign-free-agent-l...
12:05
Today I have the first of a two-piece series covering the still-available free agents. This one rounds up the position players and will probably go up while I'm mid-chat; apologies if I have to duck out here and there to answer an editorial query.
12:07
Two things to note before we get started, both of which went by on Bluesky. First, today is the day that the BBWAA has published the ballots of all Hall of Fame voters who granted permission; apparently it includes about 100 which aren't in Ryan Thibodaux's Tracker. He and his team will be adding those. https://bbwaa.com/26-hof-ballots/
12:08
Second, distinguished FG alum Eno Sarris has updated Stuff+ and the new data will be making its way to our site soon (https://bsky.app/profile/enosarris.bsky.social/post/3mdxtcmtwi2)
and now, on with the show
TKDC
12:08
For an extremely borderline candidate, would you ever give even a little consideration to WBC heroics for HOF voting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
I always try to note that stuff in my candidate profiles; Adam Jones comes to mind (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot-adam...) but he wasn't a serious candidate for election. I don't think it's out of bounds as something that could tip the balance for a voter, particularly as the WBC is an MLB production.
SoxMan
12:11
Should I feel a little disgusted that the Red Sox of all teams sent an asset out to drop salary? This Hicks trade seems gross and just away for ownership to save money.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
It's 2026, Mookie Betts has three World Series rings from his time with the Dodgers, and you're still surprised the Red Sox are making decisions more motivated by salary than near-term competitive concerns?
sodo mojo
12:14
Thought on the Donovan trade?  As a Mariner's fan this seems like the last piece in a decent off season for the Mariners and seems like it should provide a little separation from the Astros.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I was immersed enough in my own work and non-work yesterday that I haven't had time to read up on the prospects sent to St. Louis, but near-term, I like this addition for the Mariners even if third base isn't Donovan's best position. Here's Ben Clemens' writeup https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-fine-addition-to-their-collection-...
Larry
12:18
If you had to pick one for 2026, who would you rather have between McLean, Burns or Misiorowski?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
Misiorowski because he's got some top-shelf stuff and good enough command of it. Not that the other guys are slouches!
Nat
12:20
I think we're all desperate to know if you have a take on the bellicheck/kraft snubs. For me, I'm wondering about the voting structure changes: is the NFL trying to make sure no one gets elected ever? It seems even tighter than the baseball structure.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
I thought it was hilarious that Belichick — whose name I still rarely spell correctly on the first try — was snubbed mainly because my supply of schadenfreude towards the Patriots dynasty is never-ending. Objectively it seems pretty stupid because he's obviously one of the great coaches in NFL history, and man, who gives a damn about the owner?
12:23
A process that could lead to that outcome does seem pretty broken, but I don't have any real insight into how that happened.

I will be watching my one football game of the year this Sunday, as backdrop for an epic feast. Hoping the Seahawks — whom I grew up rooting for  before losing almost complete interest in football about 15 years ago — can avenge their SB loss from whenever against the Patriots.
Nancy's Friend Sluggo
12:24
If Jerry Koosman hadn't pitched on the appalling NYM 1977-78 teams, "earning" an 11-35 W-L record in those two seasons despite pitching pretty well, would he have been close to Hall of Fame status?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Hmm, i guess he's not far off. I don't care much about W-L (though voters place higher value) but even if you double his bWAR for those bad teams from 4.5 to 9.0, that still only takes him to 61.5 WAR/about 38.0 peak WAR/ and almost a 50 S-JAWS. While Sabathia was just elected with 50.8 S-JAWS, the era from which Koosman hails is already pitching-saturated and still has one notably better hurler outside the Hall in Luis Tiant Jr. (53.7 S-JAWS), not to mention the historically significant Tommy John.
Rick Danger
12:31
Chances the Mets scoop up Framber because no one gives him 5 years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
probably not high because of the tax implications
Uninvited Guest
12:32
How do three team trades come about? If they can’t get across the finish line on their own, do teams just call the Rays to try to make it work?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I believe it's often something along the lines of "well, you know you guys don't have the lefty-hitting corner outfield prospect that I've spent all winter trying to find but you know who does? The Rays. Why don't you call them and see if we can get them in on this?"
12:35
it might also often be the personal connection between executives. If two of them are talking about some other deal or something else and one says, "by the way, if you do anything with the [team], let me know, we've been trying to get ____ from them but we don't match up."
War2D2
12:37
Hi Jay! Thanks for all you do! Do you guys (that is, Fangraphs as an entity) ever go to spring training as a group, or do you mostly depend on Eric reporting from his back yard?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
We did a spring training staff trip in 2019 and saw a bunch of games — it was a blast  — but post-COVID we haven't done one. We did do the Arizona Fall League in I think 2021 or '22. It'd be nice to get back.
Clay
12:39
I’ve seen a few writers say they’ve reevaluated their standards for pitchers on the HOF ballot because of the way the role of the starter has evolved in the last 20 years. Do you agree with this? I, for one, take issue with someone like Felix Hernandez being graded on a curve, whereas Johan Santana received no love at all.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
You can only vote on the ballot in front of you, and Johan Santana is not up for election, nor will he be until the 2029 Contemporary ballot by a different voting body. He was crowded off the 2018 ballot less because he got "no love" than because of the PED-related backlog. Since then, there's been a lot of turnover among the BBWAA voters and many have spoken up favorably about Santana, regretting what happened; I'd bet he would be on a path towards eventual election if he were on a more recent ballot.
12:44
That voters are reevaluating their standards is a good thing, but unfortunately the process for retroactively cleaning things up is a much slower one than the annual BBWAA ballots. I do expect Santana to get another look in a few years; we'll see how that lands.
Tal
12:46
Does Nolan McLean's surprising dominance against LHB look sticky? Feel like that's been a big factor in the leap in his value as a prospect since his MLB debut
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
I can't offer a scouting-based take but will note that lefties didn't do anything against his curve (already a plus-plus pitch by our prospect team's evaluation) or his changeup (graded as 45/50). We're talking about small-sample data here but what he did with the pitch in his 48 innings in the majors for real, the grade probably deserves to be a bit higher.
Cromulent
12:49
Out of curiosity, do we know if the rate of HOF induction in recent years is higher, lower or on par with historical trends? Would it matter to you or other voters you talk to (in either direction)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
historically speaking it's lower — it's always going to be lower to some degree because committee elections pump the numbers up considerably. Mike Petriello has written about this (https://www.mlb.com/news/future-hall-of-famers-who-will-play-in-2026) and so have I
12:53
Here's an updated graph showing HOFers per team per season
Rick Danger
12:53
Do the Mets go with Baty in LF to start the season? I'd guess he produces more offensively than Benge at least in the beginning with fair enough defense
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
I think if he shows a grasp of the position during spring and doesn't have any other issues, Baty in LF is probably the path of least resistance — and would be a very good development for the Mets, as his positional flexibility would help make up the ground lost when they traded Jeff McNeil
PinstripedPride
12:57
Do you think the Yankees are sabotaging themselves at the margins (bench, bullpen) just to stay under a certain dollar amount? Consolidating how much they are spending isn't it a sad strategy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
Well, they're already well above the top tax threshold, they've shown some knack for finding journeymen relievers and turning them into higher-leverage guys, and they've got a recently well-regarded prospect (Dominguez) ticketed for a fourth-outfielder role after a rocky but not entirely lost rookie season. I do think they should have something stronger than the McMahon/Rosario platoon at 3B, and Anthony Volpe (who will miss part of the season due to shoulder surgery) is running out of rope. So yeah, they're probably in need of a Brendan Donovan-type guy who could play multiple positions. too bad nobody like that was on the trade market this win — wait, hang on.
Bog
1:02
What are the odds Arraez plays 2B all year?
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