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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/4/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
Risk and randomness have a lot to do with it. As an industry we can project a team to have the most 3- or 5-WAR players but we aren't all that great at predicting exactly which of those higher-value players will get injured and test a team's depth.
Justin B.
3:45
Jay, I enjoyed your 5-year piece, as always. I definitely see that Rolen is likely to get elected. It also seems like Helton for sure, and maybe Wagner, will get big boosts. I know those 2 are likely to fall short, but I'm also not sure how to think about 4 big vote-getters falling off (plus Sosa). Even allowing for smaller ballot sizes, that's still a lot of extra votes to go around. Do you think Helton might have an outside chance of election next year for that reason, or do you think it's just too large of a jump in one year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:46
It's too large a jump in one year. Larry Walker's jump from 54.6% is the lowest mark from which a modern candidate has made it:
3:47
Another Ben
3:47
Adrien Beltre is a first ballot HOFer right? I had an argument with a friend who said no and that he just played a long time. That's crazy right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:48
The dude has over 3,000 hits, nearly 500 home runs and rates as the 2nd-best defender at third base of all time. Not to put too fine a point on it but your friend needs to pull his head out of his ass.
The Presumption of Bacne
3:49
The Early Baseball edition of the Veterans Committee was set up on a 10 year rotation well before the racial reckoning in our country and the resulting reconsideration of negro leagues candidates. Should the Hall reconsider this rotation, perhaps with another committee to keep exposure on both old major leaguers and negro leaguers more equally? What would be your ideal scenario and what do you think they'll actually do?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:54
I advocated for a new committee or revised cycle in August (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/upcoming-early-baseball-era-committee-ball...) along these lines. There's been a surge of research and interest into Black baseball in the past couple of decades, and it would be a mistake to squander that momentum by waiting until 2032 for another election. As it is there are only a small handful of Negro Leagues players still alive (I think the number is 3 or 4 including Willie Mays) and we're likely to see even their descendants shuffling off this mortal coil by waiting. Plus it's clear that there are more strong candidates that can fit on a single EC ballot.
The Presumption of Bacne
3:54
Big Vets committee ballot next year. Are McGriff and Bochy the shoe-ins before maybe a third? I expect a lot of vote splitting.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:55
the additions of the 2022 "graduating" class (Bonds, Clemens, Schilling) complicates all of this, as noted in my election coverage. We might plausibly get a shutout
Guest
3:56
Two suspensions for spitballs would be ok for a HOF vote? What about two suspensions for a corked or happy fun ball bat?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:56
I'd have to stop laughing long enough to consider that one. The physics of a corked bat just don't make it likely that a player would gain an advantage, and I'm never going to crack down on a spitballer.
3:57
OK folks, the clock is bearing down on me, so it's time to go. Thanks so much for stopping by, this was a lot of fun. Stay warm and safe, and we'll do this again soon!
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