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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –2/4/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Hey folks! Welcome to my Tuesday chat. Please hang tight for a moment as I'm in the midst of conferring with editors about today's piece
12:05
Ok, I'm back but please bear with me if there are further interruptions. My long-awaited-threatened opus — "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Enjoy Batting Average Again" — is in the editorial pipeline. No, that's not a joke, it's a piece that's five years in the making
12:07
Since the Hall of Fame circus has left town, I've gotten back into the business of covering transactions via the Taylor Rogers trade (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-trade-for-taylor-taylor-not-tyler-or-...) and the Max Scherzer signing (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-takes-flight-to-toronto/)
Anyway, I'll link to today's piece when it's up. In the meantime, on with the show...
WinTwins0410
12:07
Jay, thanks for all your Hall of Fame coverage.  I know that through your research and writing -- and reaching conclusions based on where the data and narratives take you -- you have been more enthused about some Eras Committees picks in the past few years than about others.  My question: Recognizing that the only other way to get guys in after their BBWAA voting eligibility expires is via the Era Committees -- flawed though they may be -- is it better to get some of the guys you've *really* wanted in as a trade-off for having to accept the induction of some of the ones you think fall short?  Put another way, over the past decade-plus, do you feel like it has been worth it to you to see Dick Allen, Marvin Miller, Ted Simmons, Minnie Minoso, Ron Santo and Alan Trammell inducted if it has also meant the enshrinements of Dave Parker, Jim Kaat, Harold Baines and Jack Morris? (note that I didn't mention Bud Selig lol)
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Thanks for the kind words. The results you cite are a mixed blessing, indeed, but the particularities of the first group lead me to prefer a more inclusive Hall of Fame to a less inclusive one. That said, I'd be happier with the concept of a Trammel/Morris trade-off if it also included Lou Whitaker
12:10
That said, I'm still mad — and will always be mad — that all of the guys you mention save for Simmons and Trammell had to die before finally getting elected.
Guest
12:11
What happened to Nashville being the leading site for expansion?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
It's still one of them. I think Nashville, Charlotte, Salt Lake City and Portland are still the leading candidates and we'll probably get one from the first pair and one from the second, for some geographical balance. We were supposed to get some movement on expansion after the A's and Rays'  ballpark situations were sewn up but... well, we've seen some setbacks to say the least
Guest
12:13
I'm of the opinion the A's will never build a stadium in Vegas.  What say you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
If I were inclined to bet, I'd bet against it. But boy is it gonna get even uglier than it already is if that happens
Guest
12:15
Is Jazz Chisolm and his rocket arm more valuable at third base than second?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
From watching him with the Yankees, I'd be inclined to say no, because we saw him make some fundamental mistakes borne of inexperience, esp. in October. But the Statcast numbers in particular say he was well above average there, less because of his arm than his range
12:19
his bat is probably a better match for the positional expectations at second, though. Either way, going into a season with Oswaldo Cabrera penciled in at third is less than ideal
12:20
OK hang tight, another editorial confab...
BC26
12:21
If you had to pinpoint one thing you’re most excited for this season, what would it be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
its arrival. I think I could use the immersion of the season and its daily rhythms to provide some relief from the unfolding horrors around us.
econguy
12:23
Could the Baltimore and LA match up on a Jackson Holliday trade ? Rushing+many young pitchers who are blocked and the Dodgers get their long term SS.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
I don't think Rushing or anyone else the Dodgers can offer is high-ceiling enough to offset the risk of trading Holliday
Jason N
12:25
Should the Padres offer Merrill the Tatis contract?  Should Merrill take it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
If he does get such an offer, he should take it, but given the Padres' ownership chaos right now, there's no way in hell that's happening.
Question marks
12:27
In terms of 2025 hitting performance (excluding defense), who's the low man on the totem pole: Maikel Garcia (who gets SBs), Anthony Volpe  (also SBs), Jacob Wilson (BA), Byron Buxton (terrific—if he's healthy), Jackson Holliday (when will his time hasn’t come?). Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
Garcia. he's too young to give up on, but I really haven't seen enough out of him to be impressed
Nate
12:28
Who do you think the braves 5th starters going to be
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
Steve Avery
12:30
RosterResource and our Depth Charts projections suggest Ian Anderson as the 5, with AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder as alternatives. That seems about right. Anderson really did look like a very good pitcher for awhile and it wouldn't suprise me if, physical issues behind him, he becomes a special player again
Sean Lahman
12:31
Will the Reds be better simply for having Terry Francona at the helm?  How much difference can a good manager make in terms of wins?  Bruce Bochy took the Rangers from 68 wins to 90 in his first season (and a World Series win).  But last year, the Cubs dumped David Ross to hire Craig Counsell and finished with an identical win-loss record.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I think he'll help, but I don't think it will be a dramatic improvement because I just don't see a dramatic improvement in the roster. There seem to be a lot of role players who might pan out but aside from Elly, who's rough around the edges but entertaining as hell, who's going to drive that offense?
Tony
12:34
When thinking about the Hall of Fame cases of pitchers, do you think comparing someone like Bret Saberhagen to more modern pitchers, like Felix or deGrom makes sense since the whole reason pitchers are likely to be considered differently moving forward is because performance expectations are now different?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
More or less. I'm still grappling with how to evaluate this Hall of Bypassed Pitchers but I think that as we move forward, we maybe should focus more on them in career innings tiers. Who are the best pitchers with 2500-3000 innings, or 2000-2500, that are missing from the Hall? The problem still becomes the difficulty of even getting those guys onto Era Committee ballots, since the Historical Overview Committee almost never puts a one-and-done candidate on there.
12:38
I will say that for as impressive as deGrom is, if he doesn't get to 2000 inning (he's got 1,367) he's got even less of a shot than Felix.
Idiotic Failson
12:39
It's crazy to think given his hype coming up, but does Moncada end up with a minor league deal with an invite to ST at this point?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
I'm sure there's a minor league deal out there for him — just about every team can take a flyer on a guy who's shown that kind of upside even if it was a while ago. The question is whether there's a major league deal for him. I suspect there is, but with a low base salary plus incentives. The Yankees wouldn't be much of a surprise but after asking for his medicals early in the offseason, they apparently haven't re-engaged. https://nypost.com/2025/01/31/sports/breaking-down-the-dwindling-infie...
Free Agent Fan
12:42
Dan Szymborski just wrote an article that included where Bregman could have the greatest impact to playoff odds. What team signing Bregman would have the greatest impact to your life (minimal as it may be)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
He'd probably wind up in my line of sight most often if he signs with the Padres or Diamondbacks since so much of my viewing defaults to the Dodgers given the the 3-hour time difference, but I'd probably see him in person most often if he signs with the Red Sox. All of those teams are among the ones whose Playoff Odds could benefit the most via Dan's piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bregging-the-question/)
bartleby
12:44
i am clutching my pearls over the horror of the one non Ichiro HOF voter. Should we be hunting him/her down via any means necessary and tar and feather him/her?  The horror, the horror!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
At this juncture, we need to let it go — not just the identity of the non-Ichiro voter (who did not reveal him/herself via the BBWAA ballot dump today https://bsky.app/profile/notmrtibbs.com/post/3lhedk4esqs2v) — but the concept of unanimity. I may be more guilty of stoking expectations than anyone given that I wrote about the possibility in my 2020 five-year outlook, but in the grand scheme, it just doesn't matter much at all
War2d2
12:47
Hi Jay! PECOTA has the Cubs as a playoff team, which, among the unfolding horrors of the world at large as well as some sudden and traumatic personal tragedies, seems like a beautiful flower inexplicably growing out of a crevice between the bricks of a foreboding citadel of burgeoning evil.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
It says a lot about the NL Central, most of it not good!
Reds Enjoyer
12:49
How much weight do you put on PECOTA projections?
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