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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –2/4/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Right now, it's an interesting curiosity but one i really haven't had time to absorb. I'm more interested in what our projected standings will say. In both cases, I'm putting even less stock in them until just before opening day when we see where the remaining free agents have landed (Bregman, for one) and which pitchers we're losing to injuries
San Pedro
12:51
Who is in your all time rotation of pitchers you have seen in your lifetime?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Oh jeez. Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez are probably at the top of my list. Clemens and Maddux, probably. I'd probably add Steve Carlton there over Tom Seaver based on the timeline of my fandom in that Seaver won his last Cy Young in 1975, three years before i started paying close attention, where Carlton won two Cys when I was still a kid.
12:54
actually, i gotta squeeze Kershaw in there too
12:55
Let's say I DQ Clemens over my personal distaste for the man.
Mr. Burrito
12:55
Post Sasaki signing there’s been a lot of buzz about Dodgers’ money being an unfair advantage. But other eras, and other teams (Yankees in the ‘30s and ‘50s; Dodgers post Jackie Robinson), have used money to create talent pipelines of sorts, resulting in lots of WS championships. Is that a fair parallel, or are we seeing something new?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
There's nothing new under the sun when it comes to payroll inequities. The good old days weren't so good if you're looking for competitive balance
12:56
see: the Yankees from 1921-1964
Dancing Dan McGrew
12:56
Does the lack of support for McCann and Martin decrease the chances of a Realmuto's candidacy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
It doesn't help his cause, but he's got another half-decade-ish to write his own script as the candidacies of Buster Posey and Yadier Molina play out.
Mr. Burrito
12:57
If Utley makes HOF does that change the dynamic in a big way? He was amazing but his career was comparatively short. I can think of a few players who had similar WAR per 162 (Reggie Smith, Jim Edmonds, Lou Whitaker) who aren’t in and, in some cases, arent
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
It won't change anything in a big way given the bottleneck of one-and-dones. It probably still helps Lou Whitaker, the rare such candidate to get back on a Committee ballot, the most of the guys you've named despite the different shapes of their careers. Probably helps Pedroia even more given his current candidacy
Tacoby Bellsbury
12:58
What are your biggest takeaways from the BBWAA ballot dump today?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
I haven't had time to look at it yet given the timing of my own work today
John B
12:59
Hypothetical. Team One has a mix of solid veterans and solid mid-level prospects. Team Two has a mix of star players but weak on the back end of the lineup and bench. Which has a better chance for success.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
it's a pretty vague hypothetical but IIRC years ago studies showed that the stars-and-scrubs rosters have a higher chance of breaking through.
Adenolith
1:00
Regarding non-unanimous HOF electees, I'd read something that reframed my thought process. It's certainly not good, but we are seeing progress. Joe Dimaggio got 44% on his first ballot. Bob Gibson was elected with 84%. Sometimes old people are just going to think the game was better when they were kids and nostalgia is going to beat out sanity.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
DiMaggio's shares of the vote are not comparable, given that the five-year waiting rule was more or less evolving from an unwritten one to a codified one during the time between the end of his career (1951) and his election (1955).
1:01
it's still ridiculous that Gibson got just 84% but it also doesn't really matter.
Austin D.
1:02
For as much as baseball fans (well, sports fans in general) love a good what-if story, why is it that I never see Kal Daniels' name mentioned?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
Good point. The guy hit .300/.402/.514 (151 OPS+) through age 26, but ongoing problems with both knees caused a rapid decline and disappearance from the scene.
Nick Z
1:05
Hearing that one of the obstacles for Bregman is that scouts are chattering that his athleticism has eroded to such a degree that it has scared teams off. Not sure I see any underlying data that totally supports that. What might we be missing that teams/scouting dept's are seeing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
Check his Statcast percentile rankings for sprint speed  (from 62nd in 2019 to no higher than 32nd after 2020), arm strength (no higher than 30th since 2020), and his generally unremarkable contact profile. Those don't paint a great picture, but his range, on the other hand, still looks pretty good via Statcast.
Macoris
1:09
Going back to 2017 Gerrit Cole has 1,374 IP of 75 ERA- | 75 FIP-. From 1951-54 Robin Roberts threw 1,328 IP of 72 ERA- | 78 FIP-. Given the vastly different contexts of each performance do you find one more impressive than the other?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
Roberts' performance is more impressive IMO in that he was doing it 300+ innings per year and didn't have a down season in that time; in fact, he had four straight bWAR leads. What Cole has done is impressive but he's had his performance and (in 2024) physical hiccups along the way.
Dallas
1:13
So what’s the deal with Henry Davis? I get he hasn’t hit in the majors, but he hasn’t gotten an extended leash and is seemingly blocked by Joey Bart and Endy Rodriguez. Is PGH just wasting assets at this point or would it be best to make a baseball trade to fill another position of need?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
Other than a serious inability to make contact with major league pitching I don't have a great sense of what's gone wrong for Davis beyond the organization's unforced error of not letting him catch in the majors in 2023. I think he'd benefit from a change of scenery and the Pirates from an upgrade, though the Bart/Rodriguez tandem projects about as well as you'd expect garden-variety Pirates to project (23rd out of 30)
emarkaye
1:16
Love your work Jay! Although I have zero faith in Manfred (or any commish) thinking about the good of the game anymore (see $$$), do you think there'll be any movement within the next decade for an international draft? With the Nippon Dodgers happening before our eyes and then the icky stuff in the Caribbean with handlers and potential death for some players shuttling around (Cubans), it seems it should be something they do... for the good of the game (and people's safety).
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
wouldn't surprise me if we get something in the next CBA, though the odds of that are probably reduced if the owners lock the players out again
1:18
ok folks, I've got a few things pulling me away from here. Thanks so much for stopping by and marveling at my ability to pull off chatting two weeks in a row. Look for that batting average thing soon!
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