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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/1/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:00
Howdy folks! Welcome to today's chat. It's four weeks until Opening Day and two weeks until the Ides of March — beware!
Mattyb
12:00
Why will the Mariners make the playoffs this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Hmmm, I think they have a pretty good shot if the entire Astros squad get abducted by aliens and the Angels squad gets lost in a cave. I think they can hold their own in a three-team division with the A's and Rangers.
Nate
12:02
Honest question: Why do YOU think Hosmer got $100M more than guys like Duda and Morrison?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
He's an above-average player who's riding a positive trend, young enough to still be in his prime, and very marketable. Plus the Padres have to put some money somewhere or they'd be part of that MLBPA grievance like the Pirates, Rays et al.
Harold
12:04
What lineup in history featured the most HOFers at one time?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I did a thing last year at SI after somehow stumbling across a 1928 A's-Yankees game which featured 12 future Hall of Famers, plus five bystanders who didn't play (including both managers and one ump). https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/05/24/new-york-yankees-philadelphia-athlet...
CamdenWarehouse
12:06
Do you read anything Jack Morris going to Hall so soon after his case was debated for years?  Like are we seeing something change before our eyes about who is going to get in and who isn't?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
No. He was always going to have a better shot in front of a small committee of which half were Hall of Fame players instead of the writers. Once he got to 60% from the writers, the outcome was inevitable. It's still not a good choice, but now it's just another committee snafu.
ballsandgutters
12:08
Jon Jay, Jay Jaffe and Jaff Decker walk into a bar.   Just Kidding welcome to FG.    IRT your Kershaw article, will we ever see Kershaw money again to a pitcher in this age of bullpenning?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
Haha, thanks. On the one hand, I think it could be awhile before we see another $200 million contract for a pitcher after Kershaw unless somebody times the market just right, but maybe if Chris Sale has another  season of his 2017 caliber when he's a FA after 2019. Also, Ohtani is gonna get paid big-time if he lives up to the hype
JSDee
12:11
why don't the dodgers just release matt kemp?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
If they cut him now, they'd be on the hook for all of his remaining salary ($43 mil IIRC). The idea is that they trade him and somebody/bodies with club control in exchange for reducing that number
Rockie Dangerfield
12:13
What if the warning track was a moat instead of dirt?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
On the one hand, I think teams' liability insurance would go up considerably. On the other, it would make for quite a spectacle when an outfielder falls in, especially if you stock it with exotic sea creatures.  Can't wait to see Yasiel Puig uncork a laser to 3B with electric eels wrapped around him!
Nelson
12:15
Any truth to the reports that you had your wife hire Eno at the Athletic just so that you could get his old job and his top-rated Thursday chat slot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I had no idea his chat was so popular. I'm flattered to have stumbled into such a coveted timeslot.

Contrary to rumors, I don't control the hiring at The Athletic, and neither does Emma. Eno was already writing for their Bay Area site when he was added to the national one. Needless to say, I hope it works out well for all of us!
BK
12:17
Gotta be one of those 70's or 80's all star games
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
There were 19 future HOFers in the 1966 All-Star Game — a number that could increase if Dick Allen ant Tony Oliva get in eventually — but come on, that's a different category. https://www.mlb.com/news/19-hall-of-famers-in-1966-mlb-all-star-game/c...
Colby
12:20
6x6 league with AVG and OPS. Gattis or Realmuto, both are going around the same ADP on ESPN. I typically draft catcher with my last pick, but my predictions are showing value for both of these guys.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
Sadly, I'm really not much for fantasy questions, as I haven't played since 2011. and haven't written about it since 2012.
Zonk
12:22
So, basically, you're not too high on the Mariners.....
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
I don't think they'll be bad, I just think they're stuck in the middle again, with an aging roster and a big payroll. My last full column at SI was about what they could do, but some of the low-cost options I suggested (Lucas Duda, Carlos Gomez) have been snapped up. They're a team that could benefit by throwing money at Jake Arrieta, at least in the short term https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/08/seattle-mariners-free-agency
E
12:24
When you are not thinking about baseball, what do you enjoy doing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
I have a vast music collection that runs from 1920s-'30s country music to the complete works of LCD Soundsystem, with tons of classic and indie rock in between. Love to go out and see a band at a small venue, even if it's by myself once in awhile. Love to sit on the couch watching movies — good and bad —
with Emma while having a craft beer or two. Enjoy cooking — I'm the executive chef of this household, and learning to use our new Instant Pot. A very large portion of my free time these days is spent parenting, which is great but all-encompassing.
BK
12:28
How much would batting averages drop if the mound was raised 1 foot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
a whole foot? Probably a lot. .220s? .230s? I don't think that would be a lot of fun after the initial novelty wore off.
Jeff
12:29
What do you think of the HOF chances for guys like Sabathia and Verlander? It's probably never been a SP period, let alone work the kind of innings those guys did.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Sabathia, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer... I wrote about this a few times recently in the context of Halladay and Santana. I think the voters are going to have to come around to changing standards as to what constitutes a HOF pitcher or we'll never see another until Kershaw.
Mariners Fan
12:30
Cano, Beltre and Ichiro are pretty much guaranteed Hall of Famers right? What  what more does Felix Hernandez need to do to have a good shot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Yes on those 3. 3,000 hits is still automatic unless there's a PED link. Felix Hernandez needs a third act to his career because muddling along at his 2016-17 clip, with injuries and underperformance, isn't getting him closer and voters aren't wild about long denouements.
Sloth
12:33
Joey Votto hall prediction?  How does he have to perform to be a lock?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
I answered a few questions about this for Trent Rosecrans at The Athletic. Since it's behind a paywall and not all of you are subscribers, here's a taste:

The short answer for as to what Votto needs to get into the Hall is longevity, and his contract through 2023 would seem to guarantee that, barring major injury. I don't think he'd get a ton of support if he retired today, or even after one more big season, but fortunately that's not on the table.

Even if all he does now is add a few 3 WAR seasons and some lesser ones, he'll surpass the JAWS standard within a few years,  and any season above 4.8 further pads his peak score. Of course, not every voter looks at things that way. From an historical standpoint, the first big thing he has to do is get to 2,000 hits (he's at 1,586) because no candidate whose whole career took place in the post-1960 expansion era has been elected with fewer than that.
Jason
12:35
Ohtani vs Acuna for the next 5 years? Does concern for a pitching injury push you towards Acuna?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Injury risk and age-to-level, yeah, I lean Acuna. But I think it will be fascinating to see what Ohtani does simply because it's so novel.
Jeff
12:37
I am a big believer that sports fans have been conditioned to look at athletes as overpaid while turning a blind eye on owners run away with free stadiums, tax breaks, and increasing profits and revenues. It's to the point where we don't want the owners to take the hit for how minor leaguers get treated, we collectively seem to put the blame firmly on the MLBPA, who needs to share the wealth. Collectively are sports fans as dumb and unintentionally evil as it might seem in certain POVs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
I'm with you until the final sentence. I don't think sports fans are dumb and evil so much as reluctant to think too hard about certain issues because they view their time watching sports as entertainment and escape. It is maddening that they take the side of billionaires against millionaires, though
Stringer Bell
12:38
Why are the O's not in mega tank mode right now? Only 1 top 100 prospect, contract years for almost all their good players, absolutely no pitching...can you convince me there's a light at the end of the tunnel or are we in for another 17-straight losing seasons?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
Peter Angelos has always been the oddest duck among owners, and I gather that he's reluctant to go the tank route. But sooner or later something has to change. The seemingly inevitable departure of Machado would suggest that's a good time to plunge into rebuilding, which isn't to say that it will happen that way for them
Justin
12:40
I saw you once at the Two Boots off of Times Square and I shouted your full name and we talked for half a second. Do you remember that? You rock! (Actual baseball question: do Yankees shatter HR record?)
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