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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/10/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
Good afternoon, folks!
12:04
Got a late start in creating this chat so I'm going to give it a few minutes to fill the queue. In the meantime, here's my freshly-published piece on Jesús Luzardo's extension  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/philly-ing-up-luzardo-inks-a-five-year-ext...
and if you missed it, here's Friday's look at the Mets' new-look outfield picture https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mets-search-for-the-right-choices-in-t...
12:06
Re: Luzardo, he was one of seven extension candidates highlighted by Dan Szymborski just yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2026-edition/
12:07
I wish we had a World Baseball Classic game on right now as backdrop — there were so many games yesterday I couldn't focus on and yet nothing tonight until 7. Blergh
Mike
12:07
Does the success of he WBC make the olympics more or less likely for mlb players?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
Maybe slightly more likely? Honestly, I don't see much to get excited about. If you think MLB as a corporate organization is awful, I invite you to compare it to the IOC, which is exponentially worse (as is FIFA). The 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles will feature just a six-team tournament, with two fields of three that will play a pair of pool games. From there, two teams will advance directly to the semis and the other four will play off to determine two more semifinalists. That seems decidedly half-assed, and we haven't even gotten into the possibility of the political landscape costing the participation of some countries
12:12
All of this info comes via Baseball America's J.J. Cooper, who wrote yesterday about why the WBC succeeds where the Olympics fail. It's not hard to see that the IOC is almost totally indifferent to the sport https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/why-the-world-baseball-classic...
Thank you
12:13
Is Roman Anthony nursing any injury? He looked like an old Babe Ruth rounding the bases, getting thrown out at home last night. He has above average sprint speed on BaseballSavant; but, that did not look like above average.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
I haven't heard that he is, but he might have some nagging issue he doesn't want to exacerbate with less than three weeks to go before spring training.
Big Buckston
12:14
Do you think the Phillies or the Braves look to trade for outfield help given the recent PED busts? Or do they just try to use in-house or waiver wire options? Both teams probably expect to be contenders in the NL East so trades would make sense to me
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
Wrote about the Profar and Rojas suspensions last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/doubling-down-jurickson-profar-draws-a-sec.... The latter still isn't official as his appeal is still proceeding.

I think it's important to remember that this is rarely the time of year for impact trades. Teams that deal will do so driven primarily by roster space considerations — trying to get something for guys who are out of options and can't be sent down, or to do right by guys on minor league deals who don't fit their plans. I imagine both teams will add some help before Opening Day, but — spoiler alert — it's not like they'll suddenly shake loose a three-win player.

It's worth pointing out that the Braves planned to DH Profar, whose fielding is almost Castellanos-level bad, and will probably be open to any kind of hitter they can slot into place who would represent an upgrade on Dominic Smith.
Likewise, Rojas was already squeezed to the margins of the Phillies roster
drplantwrench
12:20
i think the WBC is a resounding success and wouldnt do the olympics at all personally, but what do you think is the better way to grow the sport internationally? or maybe a different strategy altogether?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
I think the WBC does a great job of that through the qualifying process. The Czech team didn't win a game this time but based on their winning one game in 2023, the sport is growing tremendously in a country that has very little history of supporting it. Likewise, WBC exposure fuels growth in other European and Latin American countries where it has less of a baseball tradition but where it can gain a real foothold given the size — think Brazil, for one.
12:24
The thing is that baseball is a tertiary sport in the Olympics and so ill-served by the IOC that you could easily miss it amid all the other competitions. The WBC, on the other hand, was built for the express purpose of showcasing baseball and does so at a time when the rest of the sports calendar is much less crowded.
One BS Thing About ABS
12:25
ABS has (in my opinion) made the game better, in that it's taken wildly terrible umpire decisions out, while obviously helping push an overall improvement in ball/strike calls by humans. But man, I miss the little box on EVERY pitch on my TV broadcast! I don't understand MLB's thought process here. How's it sitting with you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
The idea is that the league doesn't want teams/players to be able to use real-time broadcast info to influence whether or not to challenge a pitch, which is reasonable given the lengths teams have already gone to use such info for nefarious ends.

So far the lack of the box hasn't bothered me much, but I think that's because the vast majority of the baseball I've watched with my full attention this spring — the WBC — still has it. The exhibitions don't, but since I usually only those out of the corner of my eye while working, I don't really miss them as much. Ask me again later this season and I might miss it more.
tom
12:28
baseball or otherwise, what are you most excited for this spring?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Baseball, warm weather to justify hanging out on our newly-rebuilt back deck and grill, a new crop of baseball books and events (including Thomas Gilbert's Death in the Strike Zone, about James Creighton, which I had the honor or doing a cover blurb, and as noted before Michael Clair's We Sacrifice Everything for Baseball, about the 2023 Czech WBC team), some personal travel to Cooperstown for a Hot Stove Weekend in two weeks, thrown by pal and former Cooperstown mayor Jeff Katz, an extended family trip to Vienna to see where my paternal grandparents lived... and fled.
I'm also happy that we have not one but two cooking competition shows, as not only has Top Chef returned but Padma Lakshmi has her own cooking competion show, America's Culinary Cup, on CBS/Paramount+ (I don't subscribe to Paramount+ so we've mashed that TiVo button hard to record the broadcasts).
5 Run Homer
12:34
This is probably a better question for the prospect guys, but — if you were starting a team from scratch, would you rather have Jackson Chourio or Konnor Griffin? One has shown flashes but hasn’t quite put it all together, the other is a perhaps generational prospect but has barely sniffed the high minors. I feel like Chourio has gotten lost in the shuffle a bit since his debut
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
even as the non-prospect guy I'd probably say Griffin, since he's a plus shortstop who can hit, but I wouldn't sell Chourio short. The ability to do more than just hold his own at the major league level at ages 20 and 21 is the mark of a special player
Gio-Lite O (insert better pun here)
12:36
What is the hold up for Giolito signing? On paper, given their current state of rotation woes, he seem perfect for a 1 year prove it pact with the Braves, but they don’t seem interested? Any sense of what’s happening there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
Maybe he just doesn't want to be a Brave? Maybe his extensive injury history is scaring away teams? I think the most likely explanation is that he wants more money guaranteed — perhaps even via a multiyear deal — and less in the form of incentives. Or maybe he wants to target a West Coast team given that he's from the LA area? I imagine he'll find a spot before the end of the month
WBC enjoyer
12:38
Do you think WBC performances should at least be noted in hall of fame discussions? Kind of like playoff performances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I try to mention them but I think they're more like All-Star appearances rather than playoff appearances. That said, now having historical data on B-Ref, and going forward having Statcast data as well, will make it easier to research this stuff and Remember Some Classic Guys
Tal
12:40
Jonah Tong got sent down to AAA today, and i've seen some odd stuff with his pitch metrics coming out of camp. The stuff ratings have been...not good, but I've heard that there's something in terms of release point that isn't measured/accounted for with ST pitch tracking, and that's what's hurting him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
I haven't seen anything with regards to the metrics but if his mechanics are off, it's much better to get him on the minor league side so he can iron them out. At the moment the Mets have enough healthy arms to round out a six-man rotation, with Christian Scott at the ready in Triple-A as well. Might as well get Tong right for when they need him.
Brewcrewman
12:43
Re the WBC discussion. I agree with the WBC serving as the premier showcase for the sport, I think the one major outstanding issue is the limitations on pitchers caused by it being during ST. I mean you have guys like Skubal only making one start and Boyd coughing up a lead but staying in the game because he needs the work.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I don't imagine anybody is going to be allowed to go any harder in an Olympic setting. At least now if a guy gets hurt he's got several months of runway to get healthy and still have an impact on the regular season. A guy strains his forearm in the Olympics in August or September and he's probably cooked for the season.

And since somebody asked about Skubal only throwing 3 innings before leaving the team to return to the tigers, if this is getting you wound up, go eat some grass. The man is under competing pressures from the Tigers and Team USA and has, oh, a few hundred million reasons to focus on preparing for this season in the best way he can.
12:48
And Team USA will be fine without him, even if another pitcher is mopping up. If it wasn't Boyd getting knocked around, it would have been, like, Kershaw (who has yet to appear in a game) doing so
War2D2
12:48
Hi Jay! I just wanted to thank you for sharing the Bluesky post about the Czechian electrician’s final appearance in the WBC. The way he took one last look around the stadium before walking off the mound made me tear up. It’s my son’s final year in little league. Whether he continues on to travel ball or juniors, or hangs it up entirely, this will be my final year coaching him on the field, and I’m not handling it well. I don’t know what it is about this game of ours that grips you so tightly that it hurts when it lets you go.
AvatarJay Jaffe
just a great moment that will hit you right in the feels.
12:52
Given how much we emphasize sports in our society, and how comparatively fleeting the windows of opportunity are for kids to play them at a recreational level, it's natural for the passage of that opportunity to generate some pretty powerful emotions. My daughter played five "seasons" (spring/fall/spring/fall/spring) of tee-ball and coach-pitch and has been done for three years and I still get a little choked up thinking about it not being something we'll be able to share again.
BigO
12:53
Going to try this one more time. I, for one, am quite pleased that the little box is gone on tv broadcasts. In a funny way, I think it re-introduces the humanity that perhaps the ABS is taking away. And I’d rather have the inconsequential fan judgments in play than the actual umpire calls, that can potentially ruin a game.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
I think there's a lot of ... misunderstanding of those boxes and of the attempt to force the strike zone into a two-dimensional shape instead of understanding it as a three-dimensional space
Brewcrewman
12:54
Do you think that there's a viable way to hold the WBC in the middle of the season as opposed to during the spring so that the best pitchers can participate without as many restrictions? Seems like the only thing holding the WBC back.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
not without shaving two weeks off the regular season schedule
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