You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/10/26
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
and again, you will never get teams to agree to let pitchers go all-out in a non-MLB competition that takes place in the heat of a pennant race. That's just the reality of it.
Baseball learner
12:55
Do you think Cal Raleigh is really the best catcher in baseball or was last year just a career year? Will Smith has been more consistent offensively over time to my eyes. Roger Maris hit 60 too, but didn't have a Hall level career or that many great years afterwards
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
I love me some Will Smith but Raleigh is head and shoulders above him, both as a hitter and as a receiver. In Raleigh's four full seasons, his worst showing (2022) was 4.2 WAR. Smith, over the same timeframe, has topped that twice, with a high of 4.6. Last year even while setting a personal best with a 153 wRC+, Smith came in at 4.1 WAR (and about -7 framing runs) to Raleigh's 9.1.
Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position
12:59
Why can’t my team hit with runners in scoring position?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
Mostly because they hate you for that thing you did that one time.
CubsFan23
1:00
What's you take on Matt Shaw's usage this year? Will he get enough ABs to be fantasy relevent? I'm in an 18 team roto league and have him for $5. On the fence about keeping him. Seems like we haven't seen his best yet.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
I'm not really much for the fantasy-related questions as it's been a decade and a half since I played, but I don't think the Cubs have given up on Shaw; they're going to find him playing time in the outfield and at second base and DH as well as third. We have him projected for only 252 PA, but I'd take the over on that. It's on him to hit, though, and he struggled at times last year.
War2D2
1:03
My boy has been playing little league for over six years (11 seasons — Covid cost us one), and I’ve coached or managed his teams all but two of those seasons. I fully expect to break down when the last pitch is thrown. As Giamatti said:  “You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.”
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Amen
jesus
1:07
What about Jhostynxon Garcia
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
What about him? He looks like he'll be an up-and-down guy for the Pirates given that he's got major swing and miss issues and only a modest amount of upper-minors experience.
EccentricATLFan
1:09
Just out of curiosity, any idea what Dan's reaction was when the news of the Luzardo extension broke?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
based on his comments in the company Slack, I think he's pretty happy with the timing of the piece and the fact that he saw the ZiPS-projected value as way too low ($91 million over five years) and suggested it would take a lot more money to get a deal done.
Dan
1:13
Who is going to be the first active player to set the record for career WAR without a plate appearance (currently 47.8)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
I think it must be Ron Guidry who holds it? 49.3 WAR by our measure, 47.8 by bWAR, zero PA. Maybe Skenes if his arm stays intact?
Mr. Redlegs
1:16
Thoughts on the Reds chances in the central without Greene for the first 3+ months of the season? Also, at this point do you just treat Greene like 40 year old Clemens and have him prep every year for 100 innings starting in the summer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
I'm pretty sure we had them running fourth in the division even with a full season of Greene, ahead of only the Cardinals. This obviously doesn't help, but their starting pitching is still an area of strength; the outfield is their big weakness.
Process46
1:19
What do you think the Phillies will do with Alec Bohm this year? Especially with Aiden Miller's mystery injury.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
Wouldn't surprise me at all if Bohm spends the entire season with the Phillies. Miller having a back issue AND needing to change positions AND having just eight games at Triple-A (and 113 at Double-A) — I can't see the Phillies rushing him under those circumstances to replace a guy who's been more or less average at the major league level while offering some of the majors' most flowing locks.
drplantwrench
1:23
what do you think of judging trades "at the time" vs with the benefit of retrospect?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
Well, the job is to try to understand both. Why is this happening and  what is the range of reasonable outcomes now, and looking back, what did we learn about what happened?

I think it's silly to try to do something so subjective as attaching a letter grade to a trade (not that past employers haven't asked me to do so at times) or declare an instant winner
Nuxie
1:25
At the time I thought the yaz signing was for too much and superfluous . When player x get busted for roids is the team notified immediately or is notification held until the appeal process is completed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
teams don't find out until the league announces the discipline, though as noted in the cases of Profar and Rojas, that timing differs based on whether or not its a first offense. For a first offense, discipline is only announced after the appeals process has played out, but for a second, it's before the appeal — an additional incentive not to screw up again.
Turkey Sandwich
1:28
I have a friend who has a big, round number birthday coming up. Any ideas for baseball-themed gifts? Crowd-sourcing over here. thanks in advance.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
One of my favorite gifts, received for my 30th birthday almost half a lifetime ago, was a Mitchell and Ness replica Seattle Pilots #56 (for Jim Bouton) — I think half a dozen people split the cost. A current or retro jersey is a great and substantial gift. Depending on geography, a baseball experience — a road trip, an All-Star or playoff ticket -– is also appropriately weighty. Memorabilia can be a hit so long as it's been verified as authentic.
Dan
1:31
Yeah Ron Guidry is the current leader. I just figured with the now universal DH surely that record is going to fall to someone currently playing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
yes, but it's going to take awhile given that we're only four seasons into the universal DH. Eyeballing the pitching WAR leaderboard since then, Skubal has 3 PA, so he's out, and it looks like George Kirby (13.7 fWAR) may be the 0-PA leader.
Look At This Sotograph
1:34
In ideal WBC would be a month long, and would have all the best (healthy) players, like the soccer World Cup. No insurance issues, no MLB teams keeping their pitchers from playing. Is this possible to achieve?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:34
0% chance of it ever happening
maybe less
Opifijikl
1:34
What tools or pages on FG do you frequent most often? Also, what do you think are some underappreciated or underutilized pieces? Last year Mr. Becker suggested looking at the postseason odds daily late in the year, and that was a fantastic suggestion. Now I'm hungry for more!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:37
You know that FanGraphs Walk-Off feature we do at the end of the year? Mine highlighted how often I check the Playoff Odds — I guess because I'm generally trying to place news of injuries or other transactions in a competitive context (does this help the team towards a playoff spot now? will this cost them a shot at October?)
1:39
I think the Statcast stuff we've brought over is incredibly useful via our interfaces, like getting things like barrel rates and EVs over a range of time via our game logs or custom leaderboards. I love our pitch-type splits for seeing stuff to help me answer the question of "how is this guy getting more groundballs this year?" or "is that new pitch something he's getting hitters to chase?"
1:40
we've just added Statcast Bat Tracking data on player cards, and have very easy access to viewing monthly splits in that context. Honestly, I can barely keep up with all the cool stuff our dev crew keeps adding
1:41
ok, my browser is about to crash and my stomach is growling, so I'm calling it. Thanks so much for stopping by!
Connecting…