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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/11/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, folks, and HAPPY BASEBALL SEASON!
2:01
2:02
But nonetheless, i'm delighted that the lockout is over and that we're going to get a full baseball season in. My coverage of the new CBA deal is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-have-a-cba-deal-and-a-162-game-season/
I've also got a fun podcast spot with SB Nation's Jon Bois here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-jon-bois-on-dave-stieb-lou...
2:03
My recent piece about Dave Stieb's Hall of Fame case (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-born-in-the-fifties/) and the first installment of Jon's four-part documentary series on the great Blue Jay () coincided so it seemed only natural for the two of us to nerd out together.
2:04
Anyway, let's get to it! A word of warning: between my Hall of Fame coverage and the negotiations, I haven't thought about transactions very much since early December. Things could be a bit rusty.
Sirras
2:05
Home opening weekend is right before a major, work-all-weekend deadline on 4/18. Remind me that work comes before baseball when baseball isn't your job please?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Gotta make time for the important stuff! And if you're working all weekend you deserve some fun before that drudgery begins, so you can have a little baseball, as a treat
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
2:06
When is the last date on which you will hear anybody under age 50 complain about the DH in the NL?  June 15?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
the year 20037 — yes, nearly 18 thousand years into the future, sourasses will still be complaining that baseball was better way back when.
2:08
Baseball has been trying to get rid of pitchers hitting since before the mound moved to 60-foot-6, so please stop with the purity of the game nonsense https://ourgame.mlblogs.com/the-origins-of-the-designated-hitter-7608d...
Guest
2:10
If Goldschmidt has another great/solid season, 5+ WAR or so, how well-established is his HOF candidacy looking?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
woof, crashed the browser a minute ago. Tabs overloaded from CBA coverage
First Base (25th):
50.7career WAR |42.27yr-peak WAR |46.5JAWS |5.6WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162
2:13
His case is starting to round in to shape. it's not so much that he needs another 5-WAR season (his 7th-best is at 4.7, so that won't help his peak score much) as that he needs to lay down a few 3+ seasons. Very doable but short of an MVP-caliber season I don't think it's something that will come into focus so quickly
Guest
2:13
Do you think the pre arb pool will drive down the practice of team-friendly extensions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
eh, probably not. Teams already understand they're getting production at a great discount for pre-arb players, and that will continue. They do love some cost certainty, and the multiyear extensions give them that.
Doug
2:14
When can we expect major moves to re-commence? This weekend?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
I expect it will be a wild weekend for transactions. Between signings and PPRs I think i'll be working every day between now and when i head on my previously planned spring trip to visit my parents, March 22-27.
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
2:15
What are the chances Manfred or Clark (or neither) is still around for the next CBA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Manfred will be there. He is doing his job for the owners, making them money and acting as human shield. Clark it's less clear. The players did much, much better this time around than they did on the previous CBA on his watch, and that probably gives him some momentum... the question is whether he still wants the job, or if the split between the executive sub-committee (which voted 8-0 against the new CBA) and the rest of the executive committee (26-4 in favor) is indicative of a schism within the ranks that would result in his ouster.
Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer
2:18
How happy are the owners about the split between MLBPA leadership and the rank and file?  Seems to me there will be long term consequences (a further weakening of the union).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
I don't think it's as serious as it's made out to be. Gerrit Cole certainly downplayed it in this interview with The Athletic's Lindsey Adler https://theathletic.com/3176217/2022/03/10/exclusive-qa-with-yankees-g...
2:20
As part of the executive subcommittee, you voted no on this proposal. What led to that decision?
The sub wanted to stick together, and that was how our vote was reflected. I’m not really looking to talk about negative things right now while everyone is excited about the deal. We had our reasons, but those can be discussed at another time.
2:21
I get the sense the subcommittee thought they could have pushed a bit further, but it's not like they were going to get an 11th-hour decision to move free agency up a year or expand super-2. The CBT and minimum salary jumps are the largest in the history of the CBA; the players did pretty well and didn't lose any of the season. Could they have done better by holding out for a month and making it hurt a bit for the owners? Perhaps, but it would have hurt for them as well.
Sam
2:21
Jaye, I wanna be you when I grow. Thanks for all you do. My question is, can you give as an out of left field crazy FA signing off the top of your head?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
Kris Bryant to the Dodgers
add another moving part to that lineup, with Turner picking up more time at 1B
Future
2:23
Assuming the contracts are the same, who do you think would be a better long term signing for the Mariners: Bryant or Story?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
In isolation, without considering the roster, my gut says Bryant, whose production has peaked at MVP level, though he's been much less consistent in recent years, but ZiPS says Story by about 1 win per year over the next three seasons. A lot depends on whether they would move Crawford off SS; his glove is a plus there and i"m not sure the bat plays at anywhere else besides 2B. But having said that, Story at 3B would work well, as would Bryant at 3B.
Cold Stove
2:27
So much for the flurry of moves a lot of the media was talking up.. Why do you think we aren't seeing any movement?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Either because teams really did adhere to the radio silence or because they didn't want to out themselves as having not by dropping moves just a couple hours past the lifting of the freeze.
2:29
Also because these things are complicated, and agents want to get the best deals for their clients, not just the first one. And right now, they and the 30 GMs have a lot on their plates
SS market
2:29
Kind of getting the feeling that Correa's market might be less than everyone initially thought. Do you think he signs for more or less than Seager?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
More.
Nelson Cruz
2:29
Will I be bashing bombs at Petco Park for the Padres?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
wouldn't surprise me, but he's going to have lots of options now that the DH is in the NL
Travis
2:30
What is your main takeaway from the lockout? And looking into the crystal ball, do you anticipate baseball repeating this process in five years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
The players were galvanized by Manfred's actions during the 2020 season and since, and stuck together in a way that they haven't since, like, 2002.
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