JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/12/24

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/12/24

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Jay Jaffe

2:03

Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my FanGraphs chat. I've got my head buried in Positional Power Rankings assignments but came up for air to write about Noelvi Marte's PED suspension yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/noelvi-martes-ped-suspension-simplifies-re..., and last Friday wrote about Brayan Bello's extension https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-hope-brayan-bello-deal-is-the-star...

With that, let's get going.

wheelhouse

2:03

I'm trying to rebalance here, but if Cole is out for the season, do you think the Yankees are:
A) a threat for the third wild card
B) 100% dead in the water, stick a fork in them

Jay Jaffe

2:05

To borrow from Monty Python for a line that's often quoted in our household, "A fair question and one that in recent weeks 'as been much on my mind."

2:07

I think the answer to that depends upon how close to the best versions of themselves other starters such as Cortes, Rodón and Stroman are in 2024. If the two holdovers pitch as they did last year, the Yankees will be toast

2:08

if the three of them pitch up to their capabilities and if they get a decent fill-in, all isn't lost, but it may very well cost them down the road — either via a trade or a necessary payroll cut if they were to add a big salary to this year

Killjoy

2:08

I know the mantra "spring training stats are meaningless," and usually they are. But are there stats that you do look for in a good or bad way? I saw Chris Gilligan's article last week on pitchers with increased velo in ST and wondered if that was a stat (like K%) that stabilizes quickly.

Jay Jaffe

2:10

I really mostly ignore spring stats. Especially early in the spring it's easy to stand out if you're ramping up quickly but too often it's just that some pitchers are more prepared to do so than others.

I found this recent tweet from former GM Dan Evans to be insightful: https://twitter.com/DanEvans108/status/1762604236540428691

Angels vs devils

2:11

Is Nolan Schanuel the second coming of John Olerud—or Luis Arraez? Will the Angels stick with him even if he hits just 10 HRs a year?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

I don't think he's the second coming of either of them but his profile is more like that of Arraez in that it will be high contact/lower power. He may have some vaguely Olerud-like plate discipline but Olerud had a bunch of 20-homer seasons and I don't expect that from Schanuel

Beer Inspiration

2:15

It's cold and rainy in Humboldt County, CA, where I live. Having friends over for chili and Dodgers (me) vs. Giants (everyone else) preseason smack talk tomorrow night. Any beer recommendations?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

I'd imagine Pliny the Elder is pretty accessible there, and Russian River's Blind Pig IPA, too

2:17

On the Twitter craft beer thread that I'm on thanks to Eno Sarris, Cellarmaker turns up a lot as well. Haven't had any of their stuff but I know it's highly regarded

Speaking of Pliny, Ben Clemens sent me some a couple weeks ago. Now that's what I look for in a teammate!

Johnnywaffles

2:17

Hypothetical: It’s 2034 and the HOF has changed its committees (again). There is an era committee for 1950-1985 and you have been asked to chair the committee to create the ballot. No players from that era have been added since the present. Who do you put on the ballot? Note: Clemens is in another era.

Jay Jaffe

2:20

ooh, hmm. Dick Allen, Bobby Grich and Bill Freehan come to mind. Thurman Munson, Dwight Evans, Lou Whitaker as well. If I've got eight slots as the current ballot, let's add some pitching... Luis Tiant and Dave Stieb would be good ones.

The problem with that is that there are so many good candidates that the votes could get spread too thin to get anyone the 75% consensus needed.

2:21

This Monte Carlo simulation series that Dan Szymborski helped with is worth keeping in mind https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-gate-could-be-closing-on-future-hall-o...

Guest

2:23

Should JD Davis be more angry at a) the Giants; b) his agent; c) his union

Jay Jaffe

2:24

Davis got caught in something of a perfect storm because he'll only get a fraction of his $6.9 million arb win. Via ESPN:

"Under baseball's collective bargaining agreement, negotiated contracts for arbitration-eligible players are guaranteed, while salaries decided by an arbitration panel are not. That allowed the Giants to release Davis for 30 days' termination pay, which came to $1,112,903."

2:27

It looks like the Giants filed at $6.55 million but that there was some bad feeling about the timing of it relative to the possibility of a settlement so i'd say the team is probably to blame more than any of them. That said, I think Davis' own limitations as a player are what made him vulnerable to being in this position.

2:28

It's all a pretty tough break for him one way or another, and he's going to get a lot less once he signs elsewhere

birds birds birds

2:28

If you're gonna pay a huge AAV for (probably) a single season of a pitcher, then having that guy miss all of spring and start the season late seems like a huge problem. With every passing day Snell/Monty are hurting their single season AAV. Assuming they're not morons (or at least Boras isn't), does that mean they actually still think they're getting 5-6 years?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

at this stage I think it's more likely they get something like the Bellinger deal, shorter term and with opt-outs.

Mike Ortman

2:29

Way too early HOF question for the "Classic Baseball Era" committee: Are you for candidates like Jim McCormick, Bobby Mathews, Bill Dahlen, and Sherry Magee?

Jay Jaffe

2:31

The only candidate from among those that quickens my pulse is Dahlen, but he was also not a great guy even by turn-of-the-century ballplayer standards. Though I do agree McCormick is overlooked, 19th-century pitchers from before the days of 60-foot-6 don't do much for me, and I think his election would satisfy at most tens or maybe hundreds of people. I'd much rather see Negro Leagues candidates on the ballot in place of all four of those guys.

Misplaced A’s Fan

2:31

Will Curtis Mead and Miguel Vargas have fantasy relevance this season?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

More likely Mead than Vargas, I think — he could make the Rays and see time at multiple positions. I don't see much future for Vargas in LA

Pumpsie

2:33

Still amazing to me that the Yankees and Dodgers did not end up with ANY of the premier FA shortstops of the last few years. When Lindor, Correa, Seager, Turner et al were approaching FA, it seemed inevitable that one would be a Yankee, one would be a Dodger. Do they regret their decisions to not allocate resources up-the-middle?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

I think the Yankees OUGHT to regret staying out of that market because they haven't gotten much in their place (Volpe will be fine but could have been slotted elsewhere in the infield). While I think the Dodgers would have been better off signing one of those guys, it now makes sense that they were keeping their powder dry for Ohtani. Still, they've vulnerable up the middle even if the Mookie experiement continues to pay dividends, because Lux is a bit of a mess

Kevin

2:35

Love all your work, Jay. What are the top few things you now understand about baseball that you didn’t know five or ten years ago?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

Thanks, Kevin. I'd like to think I understand everything better than I did 5-10 years ago but especially how to use Statcast data — which is a constant learning process — and getting a better feel for when different stats stabilize. Even so, the more experience I gain, the more I appreciate how much there still is to learn.

2:41

Apparently the Dan Evans tweet didn't show up so here it is as a screenshot:

birds birds birds

2:41

FG Depth Charts has Acuna with 135 runs this year! As a median projection! Is it really possible that the median is something that happens once every 3-4 years?

Jay Jaffe

2:43

Wow, that does seem ... kinda high. We've had just nine seasons of 135 or more runs scored since 2001 so yeah, i'd probably take the under on that. Though I think he'll score a ton of runs in what looks like a formidable lineup

Southside Sam

2:43

Hi Jay,
Do you think we’ll ever see a primary knuckleball pitcher again in the MLB, or has the pitch has been phased out to the history books?

Jay Jaffe

2:44

Sadly I think it's the latter. With velocity so readily available, and with the ability to use technology to experiment with grips and optimize pitches, we're going to see fewer junkballers survive long enough to turn to the knuckler. I really hope I'm wrong about this

Nate

2:45

Do you see Joey Votto playing for the Blue Jays this year?

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