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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/12/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
More likely than not. Not as a full-timer, and he'll almost certainly start the season in Buffalo, but I think that if he's stayed in shape, being a second offseason removed from shoulder surgery ought to mean that he's stronger.
Chip
2:46
Could the Yankees hypothetically run $400mm payrolls perpetually given their revenue?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
Probably but they'd get less bang for their buck since a higher % of that would be tied up in taxes and would compromise their player development since they'd be picking lower, etc.
Reliever hall
2:47
Do Kenley and Kimbrel have shots at the hall? Why is K rod ignored so often
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
Kimbrel and Jansen need to remain productive for at least a couple more years to give themselves a good shot at the Hall. Wrote about it here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep...
2:51
As for K-Rod, other than the save total, he's a clear step or two down from Wagner in run prevention and in dominance, to say nothing of his character, about which the less said the better. Many voters feel there's already too many relievers in the Hall; with Wagner so close to election, K-Rod may be caught in a bit of a backlash. But he also had an ERA more than half a run higher
Mike Ortman
2:51
After the Oscars this weekend, what are your top baseball movies?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
the same as they were before: Bad New Bears and Bull Durham are tops and I never tire of them. I enjoy Eight Men Out despite the historical inaccuracies. The Bingo Long Traveling All-Stars movie, with Richard Pryor, Billy Dee Williams, and James Earl Jones is kind of a sleeper pick.
olethros
2:55
Jay, have you considered revisiting Dave Cameron's now decade old analysis of HoF cohorts by birth decade.(https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fames-standard-and-its-biggest...) I'm kinda curious how those numbers have changed.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
I did do something in that vein during my lockout-driven Hall of Fame series https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-insights-from-the-spr...
birds birds birds
2:56
Votto's HOF case is basically fully baked at this point - there's no more round numbers to reach, his rates won't change much.  I'm thinking though that going back to Canada, being real happy in the dugout, giving a few more delightful interviews and generally reminding everyone they love him is probably the biggest boost to his HOF chances I can imagine.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
It can't hurt, even if he ends up bowing out gracefully. Really enjoyed Jayson Stark's piece on him today. https://theathletic.com/5331191/2024/03/11/joey-votto-toronto-blue-jay...
Guest
2:57
Is it possible that Snell and the other Boras clients on the FA market will go unsigned into opening day?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I'd say that seems most unlikely. I'd guess by this time next week he's signed.
birds birds birds
2:58
Re: the pitchers and missing spring, I meant that if they're signing a short-term opt-out deal, then the signing team is only getting value from them in 2024, and by not signing these guys are actively hurting their 2024 value
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
sure, they're taking a risk. But it's not as though their eggs are only in one basket (I would expect multiple opt-outs) or that their suitors will be unaware of the context of this season if they have slow starts. It's not a hard-and-fast "unless you get to 4.0 WAR there's no reason to opt out" situation.
rob
3:00
The Braves 5th starter spot seems likely to be either Lopez or Elder, but in the (fairly likely) even that neither is any good, and AJSS & Waldrep likely need more time in the minors, what's the move? Could there be a reprise of the 2019 Keuchel situation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
As in will they go outside the organization? i think just about every contender can afford to dip into the market of unsigned free agent starters and take a flyer. Michael Lorenzen? Jake Odorizzi? Rich Hill? They're all out there, as is Keuchel who's been legitimately terrible for three straight years.
KC Pain
3:04
How do Holliday and Vlad compare when he was a prospect?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Just looking at Eric Longenhagen's grades atop their player cards, it looks like Vladito was at least a full grade higher in terms of future value for the offense categories and MUCH higher in terms of present value: 65 PV/70 FV hit and game power, 80/80 raw power for Guerrero, 45/60 for hit, 25/60 for game, 50/60 for raw

On the other hand, Holliday has a clear edge in speed and defense. Both graded out at 70 FV prospects, just got there via different routes.
bringbackpologrounds
3:07
Who is more likely to be the Venezuelan GOAT in 2035: Cabrera, Altuve, or Acuña?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Cabrera's combination of 3000+ hits and 500+ homers is tough to beat. Altuve will have his work cut out just to get to the former. Acuña's power/speed combo is so tantalizing that if he stays healthy he could at least be the most exciting of the three, but we've already seen one major injury from him and at least a couple other scares.
birds birds birds
3:11
Do you put any weight on the idea that the HOF isn't merely for guys who were excellent ballplayers, but who additionally carried a certain extra je ne sais quoi?  Like, maybe I'm nuts, but I can't help but feel Andrew McCutchen has been a more important part of baseball than the statistically superior Bobby Abreu or Jim Edmonds.  Have I become old and am just complaining about computers pointing out I'm wrong?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
I think your subjective viewpoint is doing most of the work there. McCutchen is the only one of them who won an MVP, but Edmonds was a key part of two pennant winners, for example.
Matt VW
3:15
Regarding baseball movies: any love for Major League? Parts of it admittedly haven't aged well, but I think its on the field stuff--just being about the game and not baseball as vaporous metaphor for X--holds up just fine.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
It's a fun movie, and I like it a lot, but it's not on my top tier. The ones I named share in common a tendency for sharper critiques of baseball's culture and its place as the national pastime.
Hugh
3:17
Is Everson Pereira + Oswald Peraza enough for Cease?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
no. If it were, that deal would have been done awhile ago. My guess is the White Sox would want either Spencer Jones or Jasson Dominguez as the top prospect from the Yankees, and that they'd want 3-4 prospects total.
RH
3:19
Where do you like to sit when attending a ballgame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
high third base side in the infield is kind of my default. This is where my friends and i sit for our partial season package at Yankee Stadium
3:22
If I can be a bit lower without paying through the nose, even better but I tend not to splurge too much for tickets, since it's rare that a single game means so much to me when I can get into any ballpark I need to during the regular season via my credential.
Chip
3:23
Related to Cole's elbow - have you ever heard of a player looking for 'multiple opinions' on something that could be fairly benign? It seems like that's the buried lede there.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
I think there are second opinions a lot more than you probably hear about, but while this may feel like belt-and-suspenders territory, there aren't many players on $300 million deals to exercise that kind of caution over.
DF
3:25
I know I should let it go, but isn't the Mariners missing out on Soto one of the biggest whiffs of the offseason? I don't know what discussions they may have had, but it's hard to imagine a better fit on a one-year deal. And they easily could have matched what the Yankees sent to SD. Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
I think if you're comparing them, a lot comes down to tolerance of risk. The Yankees could afford to take one by clearing out a lot of upper level depth plus King while knowing they can spend big if needed, and live with the likelihood Soto would walk away as a free agent, while the Mariners didn't feel like they were as well positioned to do so given the even greater likelihood Soto departed.
3:30
Ok folks, that's it from me here. Chats might be scarce for the rest of the month due to PPRs and travel but I'll try to get one in. Enjoy spring training!
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