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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/15/18
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jjp
12:00
Do you fill out a March Madness bracket? If so, who do you have winning it all?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
I had *planned* to fill out a bracket, but being under the weather and rather swamped for the past couple of days — my own version of March Madness — I didn't get around to it. NBD, I didn't watch a single college basketball game this year, and my interest in NCAA sports has basically been stabbed 23 times by so many scandals and revelations over the years. I'll probably check in on the tournament but with the University of Utah not in it, I have no dog in this hunt.
Aaron
12:03
Hey Jay, Keeper help! H2H 5x5 categories, keep 3, as first 3 picks of draft, can keep forever. Betts, Bellinger, G. Sanchez, Syndergaard or Bregman? who you got? Thanks
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
Standard issue response: I'm sorry but I don't play fantasy baseball anymore, and don't want to misrepresent myself as being a useful source of information in that realm. That said it would seem to me that Sanchez, a power-hitting 25-year-old catcher with the defensive skills to hold the position for awhile, is the way to go here.
Sharp
12:05
Tom Boswell thinks that this offseason's FA pricing means that Harper will be lucky to get 7/250 next year.  How wrong is he, and why?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
I think Harper can get into the $300 million range with a longer deal than that, but for as much as I love the kid's game, I'm also among those who believe that he has to put together a 2015-like season — healthy and dominant for 150sh games — to get there. Put that MVP season aside and he's averaged 3.6 WAR in his other years (it's better than that if you prorate, obvs), which is nice but hardly transcendent.
Zonk
12:10
Should Bill James be in the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
Yes, I believe so, but it's hard to se his path there. He's never been a BBWAA member, and only one non-BBWAA member (Roger Angell) has ever won the Spink Award for writers (which isn't the equal of a plaque). It's very tough to make the case for him as a plaque-worthy executive because he's not the day-to-day guy at the front of the Red Sox. I do think there should be a modern pioneer/innovator category by which a Veterans Committee can recognize him, Pete Palmer, Sean Forman and a few others.
Vegan Man!
12:14
Who is the true Villar - 2016 or 2017? Or is it as simple as somewhere in between? Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Man, that is a very tough question, one I've written about recently in the context of the Brewers' mediocre projection (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-the-brewers-mediocre-p...) and Neil Walker's prolonged free agency. He's young enough and not so far removed from 2016 that  his upside should be dismissed, but I think that the Brewers should have done a better job of protecting themselves in case he hits like he did in 2015 and 2017.
Can't read good
12:18
Jay! What are you thoughts on what is going on with the lineups in Colorado at OF and 1B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
I gave this some thought yesterday while working on our Positional Power Rankings; I'm writing about third base, where Arenado is obviously a stud, but our Depth Charts currently have both Pat Valaika — who had a big power breakout last year, with 13 HR in less than 200 PA — and prospect Ryan McMahon in the backup mix. McMahon, originally a 3B, has expanded his defensive palette but his chances at winning the 1B job would seem to be decreased by CarGo's return and thus Ian Desmond's destination. I expect we'll get more clarity in the next week.
My Dude
12:23
My dude, it would befit you to up your response speed.  Two q's every ten minutes ain't much of a chat.  You don't need full sentences/grammar or whole paragraphs, just bang 'em out, my dog.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
My dude, I chat every week, and I'm gonna do it my way.
John
12:24
It's hard to wrap my head around some of Manfred's thinking regarding game length and juiced balls.  He's clearly not a dumb person, but these don't feel like moves/statements made in good faith.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
In some ways, Manfred has a tough act to follow because Selig introduced so many innovations that have stuck. Manfred wants to take ownership of a new wave of innovations that help steer MLB out of some of the problems that have since emerged, but he's got a big problem when it comes to transparency in the juiced balls situation, and has made a total hash of the pace of play thing, as though he wants to be seen as doing something besides sitting on his hands — but failing to get a plan with the players' buy-in.
Matt
12:31
Where does Alex Cobb end up? Is he waiting for contenders to lose a good SPs in Spring Training and make himself the only available options for teams to bid against each other for?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I still think he makes a lot of sense for the Brewers via a one-year deal but I think it's going to come down to a pitcher suffering a season-ending injury in spring training and calling his number.
Vegan Man!
12:31
Can Jose Peraza hit enough / get on base enough, to be a valuable regular for the Reds? Thanks!
david
12:32
I remember seeing someone post a spreadsheet on pitcher velocities in spring training, it was either Zimmerman or Collette, but I can't find it on the site. Can I get a quick link to the article or spreadsheet?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I haven't laid eyes upon said spreadsheet but my colleagues were discussing this via Slack earlier this week and somebody said it's a Pitch Info thing, which means I suggest asking Dan Brooks or Harry harry Pavlidis if you can't find it. Though I'm pretty sure either Jeff or Jason could point you towards it as well.
abelWingnut
12:33
who will have the better season: greg bird or matt olson? how about over the next three years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Good question — it's tough to bet against Bird, a lefty who can take advantage of that short porch in Yankee Stadium, particularly when Olson is hitting in the Oakland Mausoleum and probably primed for regression from that 24-homers-in-59-games debut. So I'll go with Bird.
Vegan Man!
12:36
Is there any evidence that blister issues persist for pitchers from year to year? Or is it more of a fluke? Thank you!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
I've never seen a study of it. I think it's a matter of finding a method to avoid them and continuing to do that, which is tough to do when the season's clock is ticking and you want to get back on the mound to help your team.
John
12:38
Will Justin verlander be in the hall of fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
I think so, if he can hold onto some of the gains he's shown in the past 2 seasons.
Nick Pappagiorgio
12:38
If Kershaw retired right now, (1) would you vote for him for the HoF and (2) what percentage do you think he would get in his first year of eligibility?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
Yes. If he retires now, he'd be on the 2023 ballot; I become eligible in 2021. Three Cys and 5 EA titles in 10 years is HOF-worthy, less via JAWS than the Koufaxian loophole. Clear dominance for a significant stretch of time.
HugoZ
12:41
Bro, you don't get it, you're dealing with the ADD generation now, you've got to...uh, who am I talking to again?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
YMMV, but I've never really thought of a chat as a compelling thing to watch in real time so much as a place to dispatch your question and then check back.
pirates hurdles
12:42
The velocity spreadsheet is on Jeff Zimmerman's ST notes posts on rotographs. It is something he is compiling himself.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
There you go. I'm new here so I don't always know where to look, but start here https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/author/wydiyd/
divine chanteuse
12:44
I understand what the Rays are doing with this 4 man rotation yadda yadda whatever, but does Cobb make sense for them on a 1-year deal if he comes down to a Moustakas-esque price range? Obviously he makes sense on any team at that price, but the Rays are the one team he isn't feeling the negative effects of the qualifying offer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
Given their direction in the past couple of months, I think the Rays would rather have the compensation for the qualifying offer that Cobb turned down. If his salary gets down to Moustakas level ($6.5M, right?) I think there are a number of teams that would be in on him.
Vegan Man!
12:46
Outside of Kershaw and Max, who are some legit candidates for the NL CY Young? Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
If healthy, Syndergaard and Strasburg stand out as possibilities. Carlos Martinez if he can recapture whatever it was that went missing last year. Darvish if everything comes together like it did from late September until the World Series (when pitch tipping was the issue).
Geebs
12:48
You should get used to rapid fire or you're in trouble come the playoffs game chats
Sonny
12:49
Are any ST results worth reacting to? Seems like injuries and velo drops/gains are the only really 'sticky' events for regular season predictions.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
There was that study regarding spring power spikes a few years ago, but I haven't seen anybody update it in awhile so I don't know how its held up during the Launch Angle Revolution. But yeah, you noted the things I have an eye on, that and pitchers' gradual progession in workload. 30-45-60-75-90 pitches or thereabouts
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