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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/15/18
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cooldude
1:27
So forgive me if you've written about this elsewhere, or someone has, but what percent of the home run explosion do you think is attributable to the new ball and what percent is the Statcast/launch angle revolution? What what percent if any is "other"? Thanks for your time.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
1:29
I don't know the proportions but both the ball and launch angle revolution are factors. Check the work of Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur in this area
Mark
1:29
Re Utah: That's awesome, I also grew up less than a mile from the campus and my parents still live there as well (although I'm considerably younger, I grew up in the Majerus era. That 1998 loss was probably my first real sports heartbreak moment).
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
1998 brought some heartbreak — up by 7 on Kentucky with 5 minutes to go in the championship game, wasn't it? But for somebody who had grown up seeing them get to the Sweet 16 so many times and then lose, watching them bump off North Carolina and Arizona was incredible. I feel far more disappointment over the Jazz failing to beat the Bulls in the NBA Finals in the 1997 and '98 NBA Finals.

Yes, I used to care a lot about basketball. Pretty much ended with the Stockton/Malone era in Utah.
Cozart's Donkey
1:33
you never answered the Peraza question you posted earlier!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:36
Whoops. "Can Jose Peraza hit enough / get on base enough, to be a valuable regular for the Reds?"

I *think* he can be a useful stopgap or maybe a bit better than that, but if the team is serious about moving Nick Senzel to shortstop, this is basically a make-or-break year for Peraza.

Gonna wrap up shortly...
Rickcir
1:36
Why don't the Indians work a trade to send Jose Ramirez to Atlanta for a great pitching prospect or more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:37
Because at the very least Jose Ramirez is already a top 10 player in the AL.
Marshall
1:38
I tend to think only a player's 10 best seasons should matter for HoF consideration (where 10 is admittedly arbitrarily chosen). If you took this approach, what would your threshold, in terms of WAR, for a hall of famer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:40
No idea offhand. I chose to use career and 7-year-peak WAR because it highlights the contrast between two rather distinct types of careers that can lead a player to the Hall. If you use 10 years as peak, you don't get much in the way of different answers than if you use career WAR.
Mountie Votto
1:40
Salutations, Sir Jaffe! Should the Reds take a look at Alex Cobb, if they could get him for 2-3 years, or is it not worth it to add another injury-prone starter to the mix?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
I think he'd be a solid addition there but if he's willing to settle for 2-3 years, I'd bet he has options among teams that are closer to contending.
Zonk
1:43
Thank you for your article on the Brewers projection!   Speaking of which, do you think the Blue Jays projection at 86 wins is too high?  In the same division as Yankees and Red Sox, why is the model optimistic?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:44
They're a potential flip side to my Brewers piece, potentially a good topic for a closer look!
And with that, I'm out of here for this week. I hope you enjoyed the chat, and didn't get stabbed 23 times while watching my occasionally slow responses crawl by. See you next week!
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