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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/21/19

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Jay Jaffe

1:07

Rod Carew and Tom Seaver were the AL and NL ROYs in 1967. They later went on to collect major milestones (3,000th hit and 300th win, respectively) on the same day, August 4, 1985.

1:08

They were elected in their first year of eligibility, one year apart (1991 for Carew, 1992 for Seaver).

TomBruno23

1:08

Which team could use Dallas Keuchel the most for 2019?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

I made the case for the Brewers or Phillies here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dallas-keuchel-needs-a-home/ but one could do so for just about any team in the 82-92 win range.

Anonymous

1:10

Say something nice about Ketel Marte

Jay Jaffe

1:11

He had a very solid season in 2018 (104 wRC+, 2.5 WAR) and is pretty fun to watch given his athleticism. It will be interesting to see how his move to center field goes.

stever20

1:11

what do you think the players association thinks of all these extensions, in particular the Trout one? I'm thinking they're none too happy with them.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

I think the MLBPA has to be happy guys are getting paid. If they're unhappy, it's because of the complacency that's crept into the union over the past two decades. And if that's the case, I think the union needs to push very hard for a change to the way players are compensated before reaching free agency, both in the minors and majors.

Walt

1:15

I clicked on your article about team-friendly contracts from last year. It lists Todd Frazier! I think he did actually more or less earn his money last year, but it's amazing how many fellow Mets fans think he's a thief who should be sent to the glue factory.

Jay Jaffe

1:17

1.5 WAR at our standard assumption of $8 million per win is $12 million of value ($11.9 million on his page, suggesting there's a bit of rounding going on), so yeah, he earned his money. It wasn't pretty, but he can still play a very solid third base.

I'm not sure how eager I am to critique that piece and its companion but I suppose it's something I should revisit in the name of accountability.

tom

1:17

is the positional power rankings one of the hardest posts to write for fangraphs? it seems the team puts a ton of time into it.

Jay Jaffe

1:20

It's a ton of time to research even the most familiar players, hough when you write about baseball daily, it helps because you've presumably got a storehouse of nuggets to draw from. It reminds me a fair bit of writing the Baseball Prospectus player comments, which I did from 2006-12 (I think those are the right dates). There's a rhythm in putting one together and a cadence to making each entry flow that I find very soothing. Reminds me of the best part of writing my book — a point when you can just lose yourself in the research, learn new stuff, and enjoy the craft for a moment without worrying about a ticking clock.

Iron Man

1:20

How much more money could Trout have gotten on the open market?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

I don't think $500 million over a similar time frame is out of the question.

Scott

1:21

Aside from the standard answers (Trout, Betts, Harper, etc.), what players are you most excited about this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

I'm a little nervous given how his spring has gone and the workload he had last year, but I want to see whether Walker Buehler can contend for a Cy Young award. Eager to see whether Gary Sanchez can rebound after a rough season, and whether Luke Voit's late-season run was for real. Puig playing in a home run-conducive ballpark, with a chip on his shoulder. Manny and Bryce in new uniforms, plus taking the wraps off Vlad Jr., Tatis Jr. and Eloy.

Lee

1:24

What are Keuchel and Kimbrel's plays now? It's now so close to the season that they both won't be ready for opening day. I have to think both are going to have to settle for reduced 1 year deals with a hope in doing better next off season. Tough position to be in but I have to think they both had decent multi-year offers on the table at some point.

Jay Jaffe

1:27

I think their respective agents overplayed their hands going into the winter to such an extent that I don't think either ever got a "decent" multi-year offer or a formal one of any sort rather than vague discussions of parameters.

For either, I think a team has to do something like 1 yr + player option or a version of the Arrieta deal, which is 3 + opt out/escalated override. Wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers came away with one or the other right now.

Pat

1:27

I think when you add in Ichiro's cultural impact, ambassador to the game in baseball's 2nd biggest market (Japan), overall acknowledgement as a great guy (similar to Mariano...anyone, ever said anything bad about Ichiro?), to his obvious playing/statistical accomplishments, he SHOULD be unanimous HOF, right?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Yes.

Hello

1:28

Did you read FG chats before you joined the site? if so, who was your favorite chatter?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Occasionally but without regularity I would check in on the chats of Eno Sarris, Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan, in part because they would often turn up in Google searches pointed towards "How is [Player X] doing this?"

babyswiss

1:30

Im selling myself on Amed Rosario this year. Think his OBP skills improve or is he destined to sit at the bottom of that lineup and fade?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

I wrote the shortstops PPR, which will be up tomorrow. I'm not wowed by what he's done but he's entering his age-23 season, and with even a bit of growth he'll be a league-average guy. I'm not really sold that he'll be much more than that in 2019 but I'm glad we don't have to hear anymore bullshit about Jose Reyes mentoring him.

Trent

1:35

Which team got the best value in its recent extension: Astros (Bregman), Rays (Lowe), White Sox (Jimenez), or Angels (Trout)?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

whew, tough question. Without actually doing any math, I'll go with Bregman because a) he's already played at a star level in the majors and B) the bar to clear is lower than it is for Trout. It's lower still for those other two guys, but the conversion rate of top prospects to stars is an uneven one.

john

1:39

With injuries to Jeffress and now Knebel does Milw now have a bigger reason to land Kimbrel?

Jay Jaffe

1:41

Hadn't seen the Knebel news but

Me, listening to Joe Girardi press conference: "Ehhhh it's not what you want..."
Joe, five seconds after:
@BryanHoch

If it's as serious as the early indications suggest then yes, I'd say the Brewers have even more reason to add Kimbrel.

Phil Diggety

1:42

Votto vs. John Olerud?

Jay Jaffe

1:42

Votto's a future Hall of Famer who's approaching the JAWS standard, Olerud is a close-but-no-cigar guy

Vader

1:43

How concerned are you with Severino? Do you think he can get back in May and be much better than his 2nd half of 2018?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

I'm concerned any time a pitcher has a shoulder issue but right now I'll go with what I'm hearing which is May for Severino. And yes, if he's healthy I certainly think he'll be better than he was in the second half last year.

Broken Bat

1:44

Thanks for the time. Do you think that Jon Gray ST results are meaningfull? He has like a 22-1 k/ bb spread. Does he finally get the results of the talent most view as a #1 or #2 SP?

Jay Jaffe

1:46

K/BB numbers are just about the only thing I look at for spring training stats for pitchers. What they tell me is that this guy is healthy and fooling hitters. That's about as far as I'm willing to take it. If so, I think he's probably a 2-3 starter but not an ace.

Hello

1:46

Thoughts on player statues at ballparks? Lots of hoopla in Mets-dom about a potential Tom Seaver statute.

Jay Jaffe

1:46

More of 'em, please. The Seaver one is overdue - it would have been better to honor him at a point when he was able to attend the dedication ceremony.

1:47

Will Bauer really only do 1-year deals when he hits FA or is this just grandstanding? I mean, there is a point where taking a longer term deal just makes sense from a financial standpoint, given enough money.

Jay Jaffe

1:48

Based upon what he's said publicly, he's going to have a lot of explaining to do if he backtracks from that pledge. And yes, given the chance of a career-altering injury at any given point, I think just about any pitcher is better off taking a multi-year deal.

Thor

1:48

How do you envision the league combatting the raising number of foul balls?

Jay Jaffe

1:50

I still think the best way for MLB to deal with several of its concerns about the pace and style of play is to tweak the strike zone, particularly at the bottom. It's a time-honored method of restoring the pitcher/hitter balance that doesn't have much in the way of obvious physical implications, the way of lowering the mound or moving the rubber back would.

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