JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 3/3/26

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 3/3/26

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Jay Jaffe

12:49

You can see the basics on our player cards, which right now default to showing spring training data. for example:

12:50

12:52

We've also got plate discipline data on those pages as well as basic spring stats leaderboards https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/spring-training?stats=pit&seasonstar...

For more granular stuff, you're still going to want to use Baseball Savant, but it's pretty cool to have the above stuff closer at hand if that's what you're looking for (not that you should be putting much stock in ST performance data, ahem)

BIG SEXY

12:52

Are you excited to watch Alexei Ramirez play again? 44 years strong

Jay Jaffe

12:55

Hell yeah, I love seeing the older guys come back for stuff like this. Didi Gregorius is on the Netherlands team, Hyun Jin Ryu for Korea, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few others

Look At This Sotograph

12:56

Let's say Skubal gets another Cy Young this year, with a 6.5-win season. That's 3 Cy Youngs. His HOF odds would still be very poor, wouldn't they?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

I wouldn't call them very poor — the evaluation of what makes a Hall of Fame starter is likely to undergo considerable evolution over the next 15-20 years and we're only at the bleeding edge of it. What we know is that he's going to have a pretty impressive head start on anyone else with similar workloads and WAR.

That said I think any starting pitcher going today who isn't already to at least 40 WAR should still be considered a long shot.

Mad Max

12:59

How much do you think I get to pitch this year before August? I mean I'm all about the postseason, but then again I'm all about taking the ball and heading to the mound. How's this going to work this season?

Jay Jaffe

1:01

Our Depth Charts guys have Scherzer projected only for 51 innings. I think he'll do more than that if he's healthy. We know he's unlikely to pitch before May but if he's activated some time that month and stays in the rotation, it's not hard to imagine him getting about 50 innings before August

Guest

1:01

If you were a player, are there any conditions in which you'd accept a salary cap? Like if there was a high floor and it was 90% or revenue? Or have the owners proven themselves to be so untrustworthy with their books that you would just assume they're cooking the numbers in a way that's favorable to ownership? Or is the lack of a cap too valuable to even consider?

Jay Jaffe

1:03

If I'm a player, I need the union to see the books before I agree to a salary cap. I think I'd also need a complete overhaul of compensation for a player's first six years, which could include some combination of higher minimum salary, earlier arbitration, and earlier free agency.

Needless to say, I don't see this happening.

robd4701

1:04

I saw an interesting comparison between Salvador Perez's hall of fame case and Lance Parrish, who has a similar profile: healthy home run count, low on base percentage, and a healthy number of all star games, gold gloves, and silver sluggers. An important part of a championship team as well. I know where you stand on Salvy's credentials, but do you think that Parrish's one and done may be a good example of where Perez's candidacy will end up (one and done) or is there something that makes Perez standout in relation to Parrish or other borderline candidates? Thanks for all you do.

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I think Perez is more popular than Parrish was, and more closely identified with his team's success; those Tigers also had Trammell and Whitaker as well as Jack Morris — all four of them were rookies on the Topps 1978 set, my first as a collector, incidentally — plus Kirk Gibson, Darrell Evans...

1:06

So I think Perez will get some support and it will be a polarizing debate, like that around Morris, or Vizquel before the really ugly stuff hit the fan

1:07

on that note...

Ben

1:07

Do you think confusion between Dwight and Darrell Evans hurts their HoF cases? Is there a good mnemonic device to keep them separate?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

I think only casual fans get the two mixed up. Dwight has had a higher profile in recent years thanks to his 2020 Era Committee candidacy and the 2024 book he did with Eric Sherman (Dewey: Behind the Gold Glove). Darrell we haven't heard much from lately.

Mnemonic

W - I think dWight's case is a potential Winner thanks to that recent popularity and his eight Gold Gloves

L - sadly I think darreLL's cause is a losing one because of his .248 batting average (which yes, matters to voters), his lower visibility, and the crowd of his contemporaries at 3B outside the Hall including Graig Nettles, Sal Bando, and Buddy Bell, all ahead of him in JAWS

1:13

There is a metric ton of Profar-related questions. I'm noting them and will incorporate some of them into my article for tomorrow but I'm not going to saturate the chat with them.

Alby

1:14

I'm puzzled by FG's playoff odds giving Atlanta the best chance of winning the NL East considering they've lost two starting pitchers.

Jay Jaffe

1:18

They do still have Chris Sale and Spencer Strider, and they're expected to get Schwelly back from surgery to remove bone spurs at some point (sorry, sorry). I think they're candidates to dip into the Giolito/Corbin/Littell/Gray pool of available free agents. But yeah, it all seems so precarious — including relying upon Reynaldo Lopez after he managed just 5 innings last year — that I wouldn't pick them to win the NL East.

Dan wrote about them, with an eye on their pitching depth, recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atlantas-risky-rotation-perils-the-teams-c...

guest v2

1:19

Most unlikely future hall-of-famer who you can realistically see a path for induction? I'm thinking of an alternate reality Andrelton Simmons who could hit enough into his thirties and accumulate WAR.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Kinda feel like that describes Marcus Semien, who has just three All-Star selections and two Gold Gloves but is 23rd among second basemen in JAWS (49.2/40.6/44.9); about 75% of players with a 40-WAR peak are eventually elected, but his lack of individual honors (though he has three top-3 MVP finishes) and a .253 batting average that's more likely to fall than rise over the remainder of his career — all that makes him a long shot

1:22

More on Profar, not sure the background yet https://x.com/ken_rosenthal/status/2028896158861672612?s=46&t=g_PT0BXb...

War2D2

1:22

Hi Jay! The question about ABS made me think of something: I’m sure you’ve publicly voiced an opinion on replay and ABS, but I don’t think I’ve seen it. Personally I dislike both because I feel like what is lost (drama associated with close plays to end a game, or in the case of ABS an umpire’s theatrical strike three call) isn’t worth what is gained (maybe like…5% greater accuracy on the outside?). Baseball for me is entertainment first and foremost, and both make watching the game (for me at least) measurably less entertaining. Where do you stand?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

I generally like the use of instant replay and have been supportive of its use from the outset, but the exception is those nanosecond lose-contact-with-the-base plays, which I think tend to eat up a lot of challenge time. As for ABS, I'm glad that it's only a challenge system that's being used instead of the full monty, and so far, it's seemed relatively unobtrusive.

Jeff S

1:26

Jay….i can’t shake this gross feeling about 2027. It’s honestly killed my excitement for this season. My son is just starting to really enjoy baseball and watch MLB and now it sounds like there won’t be a season next year. I hate it. Makes me sick. Do you have any hope for 2027?

Chaim Time

1:26

I don't *want* to bring up politics, but I think we sort of have to...? The owners are going to lock out the players at the end of 2026. This will be right after Trump loses control of at least the House. He is a narcissist who cannot help but put his nose into anything drawing media attention--especially things that are part of classical American culture, like baseball. He also likes to "make deals" and take credit for solving problems. The odds of him **not** inserting himself into the lockout on the side of the owners, in an attempt to change the topic after the November elections is basically nil. Why is no one talking about this, and is either side preparing for this inevitability?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

As I have said in these chats before, I don't think it makes a ton of sense to sit around worrying about the 2027 season when you have absolutely zero control over it. The noise level right now is very high and won't go away, the owners will continue with propaganda that will be laundered by casual fans and compliant media, the players' union has to get its house in order, there almost certainly will be a lockout, and the negotiations will get ugly.

All of that's true and enough to make my stomach turn, and yet here's where I come down on this: the owners have too much at stake in terms of upcoming TV contracts, expansion fees, and the continual appreciation of franchise valuations to lose a season or a significant chunk of one to a labor dispute. So I'm just going to keep my focus on enjoying baseball, and evaluate what's happening on the field and off when necessary. The rest of the world is enough of an anxiety-provoking shitshow for me to let that seep into this territory until it's absolutely necessary

1:33

Take a deep breath and watch some baseball, folks.

Temperature Down

1:33

With a WBC that's received a ton of attention on the heels of the Olympics, MLB returning to broadcast television, a swelling of interest from young fans in recent years, and a new round of broadcast bidding just two seasons away...I just don't see how the owner's risk all this momentum. It would be incredibly risky (financially and culturally) to not have a full season next year. If I'm an owner knowing labor agreements only last about 3 years of so, I don't stand pat on a salary cap until AFTER the long-term broadcast agreements are in place. Do you agree?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

I think you've got the right idea. This negotiation isn't the hill the owners should be dying on.

529

1:34

Some of the historical greats have been (rightly) dinged a little because they didn't play against the full population. However, back in the day baseball compared to other sporting options was way more popular, as in the best American athletes for the most part now play football, not baseball. How do those effects balance each other out?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

I think you have to factor better nutrition and training into the equation as well, aided by technological advances (medical and analytical). I think players today are competing against better and better-prepared athletes than their predecessors

Expansion

1:36

What two cities would you want to see added to the league? Nashville and Portland seem like the front runners

Jay Jaffe

1:39

I'm partial to Salt Lake City instead of Portland, and between the ownership group pushing for it and a favorable political climate, I think it may have the edge right now. The Athletic's Stephen Nesbitt recently wrote about SLC as a sports boomtown https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7044898/2026/02/23/utah-mlb-expansion...

As for Nashville, I think it's competing with Charlotte for the addition from the Eastern half of the US. I don't really have a dog in the hunt but Nashville does have a higher profile nationally because of the music. So I guess I'll go ith that

mmddyyyy

1:39

Was the difficulty order of the defensive spectrum always the same as it is now?

Jay Jaffe

1:40

I think the biggest change is that second base used to be less important than third base due to the prevalence of bunting.

1:41

ok folks, that's it from me this week. I guess I need to go dig into what's going on with Profar. Thanks so much for stopping by, and check out the World Baseball Classic for some competitive baseball action this week.

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