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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/30/20
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Rob
12:45
How much has Harold Baines' induction messed up determining who is and isn't a HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
Eh, it did lower the JAWS standard among RF by like a full point, but that was the highest at any position so it wasn't a huge deal. I think it's hurt more in perception than actuality. The idea that if Baines is a HOFer everybody can thus make a slippery-slope argument that, like, Nick Markakis should be in, or that EVERYBODY who's in is just a joke — both of those hurt the credibility of the institution, but the odds of lightning striking on that level again anytime soon still seem very small.
John
12:47
Glad to see you are doing a story on the Toy Cannon.  I hope you look closely at his offensive production.  He generated a ton of oWAR per hit -
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
Looked this up last night and it will be in the story: Wynn has the 3rd highest bWAR of any player with a lifetime batting average of .250 or lower, behind only Graig Nettles (who has a commanding lead and is HOFworthy IMO) and Darrell Evans.
Coffee
12:48
Cant wait for my new FanGraphs mug! Though by "cant wait" I mean I have no problem waiting as its not an essential supply so please don't feel any need to rush my mug order. Thanks for all you guys do at FanGraphs!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I love my FG mug, so much so that when I accidentally broke the handle awhile back I glued it back on, and it's now survived at least 6 months.
And thank you for the support !
John
12:49
have you ever critically gone back and looked at your hall of fame metric and asked whether you are missing anything?  If you had to add a second big metric what would it be ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
I've used JAWS through 17 election cycles, including the past 14 or 15 in its present form (7-year at large for peak instead of 5-consecutive). I'd like to believe that I've always kept a critical eye on it, ensuring that the system wasn't flagging too many or too few candidates due to its construction. When it flagged Tony Phillips as worthy in the 2005 class, that was a sign that 5-consecutive (my choosing) and BP's replacement level (not my choosing, but clearly too low, using the 1899 Cleveland Spiders as the floor, more or less) weren't working right for the cause. Both soon changed, and I think subsequently, the system does a better job at avoiding false positives.

I've always freely acknowledged that there's a whole bunch of relevant stuff such as awards, postseason, and historical importance, that can't be quantified to the same degree as WAR-based value, and that JAWS is better used as a first-cut metric than as a binary yes/no final answer.
One final thought on the topic: there's nothing like spending 3 1/2 years writing a book to get a real idea of your metric's strengths and weaknesses.
Tony Z
12:56
How does a short season impact the value of rookie pitchers such as McKay and Puk?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
If they can stay healthy through the outage and ramp up successfully, I think they might have greater value than before, since whatever innings caps they face will cover a larger share of the season. Just pulling #s out of the air, but if Puk was targeted for 120 innings, the A's previously would have needed another starter to cover another 40-50 IP. Now, they're less likely to need that guy, again assuming the pitcher in question is healthy.
DL80
12:58
This might be an odd one, but could Dave give us an update on things and how/if us buying memberships helped? A lot of people bought them after his post (including me), and it would help to know that it made a difference. And what else can we do to help?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
We greatly, greatly, greatly appreciate your support and I would presume that we will keep you updated in some form, if and when we determine additional ways to show that support.
mike
12:59
How does one reconcile one's ethical beliefs with continuing to give money to billionaires and millionaires that just agreed to screw over entry level employees?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
the baseball industry employs thousands upon thousands of people at many levels, from hourly employees to $30M-plus players. A whole lot of us don't like how those at the low end are being screwed, and I can understand if somebody makes the choice to give up on supporting baseball right now on that basis. However, I personally don't think the best way to combat inequity is to withdraw support entirely, it's to stay and fight for better outcomes.
eloquentboot
1:04
Hey Jay, hope all is well for the fangraphs employees! Wish I could do more to help, but unfortunately I like many of you guys am in a bit of a tricky spot with employment. Fangraphs while "non-essential" has been one of my favorite things in life for many years.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
We understand that what we do isn't an "essential" service by most definitions, at least to our readers, and we're sympathetic to the fact a good chunk of our audience is feeling squeezed right now, or worse, even out of jobs. That sucks, no doubt, and we hope that things improve for you – and for all of us.

To those of us on staff at FG, baseball IS essential, as it's our primary way of making a living, paying the mortgage or rent, buying food and essentials, and so on. For this household, in which my wife edits the national MLB vertical for The Athletic, baseball is VERY essential. We're lucky to be employed in this industry, we bust our asses to give you our best work, and we hope that there are enough of you out there to fit us into your lives and your budgets in ways that can help to sustain us through this lean time.
WinTwins0410
1:11
Jay, what explains the difference between the support that Jack Morris got for the HoF (solid vote totals and eventual committee enshrinement) vs. the nonexistent support that David Wells got?  Why in your opinion did voters not give David Wells more love?  (There is that 4.13 ERA, I know.)  A cursory glance of their stats and honors (and I know fewer and fewer writers only make cursory glances, but still) shows their careers to be not terribly dissimilar
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
Popularity, and in particular the appreciation and perhaps over-rating of Morris' Game 7 1991 work is all that separates him from Wells, whose JAWS case is stronger (44 spots higher in the rankings) and whose full postseason ledger is better, too — just without a similarly signature moment. https://www.si.com/mlb/2012/12/20/jaws-and-the-2013-hall-of-fame-ballot-david-wells
FanGraphs Membership
1:13
I know that on an individual level, it's a relative pittance, but what would be more helpful for Fangraphs - me purchasing a $20 membership with ads or a $50 membership without ads?  I assume the site makes much less than $30/year from me on ad revenue, which would make the latter better, but wanted to ask.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
I'm not sure but I think your logic is correct. We'll take what we can get, either way, and we thank you.
Sam
1:14
Who are some players who the average fan would be surprised by the strength of their HOF case? Conversely, who are some players whose fame outstrips the strength of their case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
grabbing this to put in the article idea folder
Mad Joe-Don
1:15
How many headaches could be avoided if the Hall of Fame came up with some loose definition of a hall of famer? "A player who is one of the best in the game over a period of years" or something like that.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:16
it's loosely defined in the official voting rules (https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/rules/bbwaa-rules-for-election):

5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

6. Automatic Elections: No automatic elections based on performances such as a batting average of .400 or more for one (1) year, pitching a perfect game or similar outstanding achievement shall be permitted.
1:18
While I'm not a fan of the "character clause" aspect for reasons that are well-publicized, I think the Hall has deliberately avoided setting baselines because the game evolves over time. It's pretty clear based on #6 that the record/ability stuff pertains to sustained work rather than one amazing accomplishment.
bk
1:18
Jay, how does the arbitration rule work where you can cut someone before the season for 1/6th of their arb determined number? Could NYM project Thor’s recovery far enough into 2021 that they’d choose to walk away? Or are there injury rights a player has?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
I think this is the rule to which you're referring:

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/non-guaranteed-contract
1:23
Under that, I suspect — but don't know — whether the Mets have any remedy for this year unless they cut him now, before they can project his trajectory. They could in theory non-tender him next winter, but I think so long as there's any hope he can pitch in 2021, he has too much trade value to dump.
Jeff
1:23
Yu Darvish woulda coulda shoulda passed 2500 innings between the NPB and MLB with a sub-3 ERA and RA9. What does he have to do to get any HOF attention?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
First of all, he has to pitch in parts of 10 MLB seasons; 2020 would be his eighth. That said, he's unlikely to wind up with HOF-caliber MLB numbers barring a sudden and sustained return to his 2012-14 form, and the precedents of Hideo Nomo and Hideki Matsui tell us that Darvish's NPB record won't be part of most writers' deliberations; this is the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not the International Baseball Hall of Fame.

Ichiro, OTOH, has a very clear HOF case —including the 3000 hit milestone — without considering his NPB stats.
Derek
1:29
Is there any way to just donate to the site? I am in the extremely fortunate position of being able to work from home and in an industry that is actually seeing an increase in business (probably temporary, but still...). I'd love to be able to contribute more to such a great website. Is buying a 2nd membership the best way to go?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
A gift membership might be one way to go! I have some ideas to carry to our staff meeting today and hope that we come out of that able to communicate ways for those of you who want to do even more than you've already done.
OK folks, I'm going to call it a day on this chat. THANK YOU all for showing up, and for your expressions of support — written, verbal, financial. We're doing our best to be here for you, and we hope to continue that beyond this current games-free period.

Stay safe, and good luck out there.
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