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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/5/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon and welcome to the sixth straight week of my Friday chat — and yes, clearly I'm keeping track.
2:01
While the queue fills up, a bit of housekeeping. This week, I took a look at the potential fits for free agents Jake Odorizzi (http://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-remaining-market-for-jake-odorizzi/) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (http://blogs.fangraphs.com/finding-a-fit-for-jackie-bradley-jr/)
2:02
Then I doubled back to Bradley today after he signed with the Brewers and joined a crowded outfield (http://blogs.fangraphs.com/figuring-out-jackie-bradley-jr-s-brewers-fi...)
I also took a quick look at the impact of the announcement that the start of the Triple-A season will be delayed at least four weeks (http://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-expected-move-mlb-delays-triple-a-season...)
2:03
Also, a piece I worked on about our team-level rotation projections is being held over to next week, as we needed to tweak our assumptions regarding innings per start and thus total rotation innings,  which were a bit outdated.
2:04
Anyway, on with the show!
TOOTBLAN
2:04
Was it a mistake for the Red Sox to not re-sign Jackie Bradley, Jr.? His 2/24 contract (which could be 1/12 with the player opt out) appears reasonable. Couple that with his defense, average bat, and popularity in Boston, and it seems to me that not re-signing him is a missed opportunity (assuming he would have signed the same contract with the Red Sox as he did with the Brewers).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
I don't think the Sox or many of the other teams I highlighted had much to lose had they landed Bradley that deal, and I had them on the list of good fits because while Verdugo projects to be good enough to cover center field, the solutions at the corners— Franchy in left, Renfroe in right  — project as a couple of 4th or 5th outfielders with too much playing time.
2:07
With Renfroe's lefty-mashing abilities they could have at least done a 2-position platoon, with Verdugo covering CF against LH starters
David
2:08
Anyone else as excited as I am about no DH in the NL this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
Meh. I'm not. I've been ready for the universal DH for years and the likelihood of it being part of the next CBA makes this year without it just seem kind of silly. Still, if it's in exchange for no expanded playoffs, which is the way MLB rigged it, then fine, whatever.
Joe
2:09
With AAA delaying the season, how will that affect any 2021 prospect debuts.  Seems like teams would want guys in something closer to real-game action before being thrust into the Bigs instead of back field baseball, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
I think it's going to vary from team to team and player to player. While the prospects themselves may be itching for real game activity, I don't see it likely that teams are going to accelerate the arrivals of too many of them especially given the ways that they work to hold their service time down even if not as brazenly as the Mariners planned to with Kelenic. If I understand the announcement and the subsequent reporting correctly, teams won't be able to recall players from lower levels of the minors directly; they'll have to go through the alternate site system, with its stronger health and safety protocols.
Beyond that, I'm sure Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein probably have better insights into some of the specifics of players and teams.
Tom
2:13
Harrison Bader > Jackie Bradley, Jr, no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
His defensive numbers were nothing special last year but his bat rebounded, even with just a .226 AVG. Double-digit barrel rate, 113 wRC+. His weakness against righties (career wRC+ of just 83) gives me pause, because unless you're Kevin Kiermaier you can't get away with that as a platoon guy. I'd rather roster JBJ and a lefty masher at least if we're talking 2021 and not multilple years from now
Nathan
2:16
I was looking at Lance Berkman’s player page and was impressed with his peak WAR production. What did he need to do to get more serious HOF consideration? 2 healthy seasons to close out his career and 400HRs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Fantastic hitter but a short career. Not getting to 2,000 hits (he had 1,905) all bur ruled him out of the HOF conversation, but we're also talking about a guy who leaked runs on the bases and in the field (albeit not horrendously so). He's close on 7-year peak as a left fielder (39.2 WAR vs 41.7 for the standard), but his 7th best season was just 3.8 WAR; he needed another 5+ there to go with the 2,000 hits (400 homers would have helped, too), and even then he would have been more than 10 wins short of the career standard. there are far worse players in the Hall but I don't see him getting anywhere in small committee-land down the road
Tom
2:20
St. Louis Cardinals have announced the nominees for their local Hall of Fame. Keith Hernandez, Lee Smith, Matt Morris, Edgar Renteria, and Steve Carlton. Only one inductee this year. If looking solely at time as a Cardinal, Keith Hernandez is the correct vote, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Easy call, yes
John
2:21
Has Dan ever used the Zips wayback machine to estimate out curt flood after 1969 to get a sense for what a normal end game would have looked like for him ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
I don't think so. that's a good idea!
Eric the Red
2:22
Interested in your thoughts on Jason Heyward's HOF chances. He's more than halfway to average RF career WAR and his peak should rise.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
Not happening barring a major career turnaround. He got off to a great start, with four seasons of 5.5 WAR or more through age 25 but just 8.6 WAR in 5 seasons since, and 38.4 WAR total. For comparison's sake, by this stage, Andruw Jones had 61.0 WAR, and we see that a whole bunch of voters have reservations about his career fall-off
David
2:24
Whats your drink of choice while doing these chats?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
seltzer with grapefruit juice.

I'm generally not a day drinker, or even a daylight drinker, except maybe on weekends. Not that I wouldn't like to crack one open but when you're the parent of a small child, having 3 drinks before dinner is a special-occasion-only thing, at least in this household
fake baseball fan
2:26
IS their a favorite for Jake Odorizzi right now? Astros? Minnesota? CUbs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
I have to think that with the Framber and COVID-19 news the Astros — who already looked like a fit to me, in part because of the Click-Tampa Bay connection —are the leaders. I don't see either of the other two teams signing him unless he REALLY wants to go back to Minnesota on a sweetheart deal. Cubs aren't happening
TomBruno23
2:27
Joe Altobelli's death leaves 24 living men who have managed a team to a World Series title. I thought it would be a more exclusive list, similar to the 10 living men who lost the World Series and never won it all.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
RIP Joe Altobelli. He was managing the Giants when I started watching baseball, and his Giants blew a September lead in 1978. Always seemed weird to me that Earl Weaver won only one World Series, the same as Altobelli despite getting to three others. But I know Altobelli was a well-regarded baseball man.

Anyway, in answer to your question I suspect it has something to do with the parity that's taken over the game at the top. Even with the Yankees and Giants winning 3 or more titles under the same skipper during the Wild Card era the fact that we haven't seen any team win back-to-back since the 1999-2000 Yankees leaves a lot of room to distribute the glory.
Tomasreffers
2:30
will we ever have a fielding based HOF case again (besides the guys on the ballot today and Yadi)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
Buster Posey's an outstanding hitter who might struggle to reach the all-important 2,000 hits threshold, but his framing numbers are so strong that he should be HOF worthy assuming he can hang on a bit longer.  

Andrelton Simmons already has a 35.6 JAWS, just 0.6 below Vizquel, so if he can shake off his recent injuries and play regularly, I think he'll be somebody to talk about.
resumeman
2:35
What do you expect from Yarbrough this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
The one thing that sticks out in his projections is a high homer rate (1.38 per nine on his depth chart projex). His GB/FB has been on the rise, and he does a very good job of generating soft contact, and has a career HR rate of 1.0 per nine. So I'll take the under on his projected 4.35 ERA and 4.56 FIP, wouldn't surprise me if he were under 4.00 in both.
MoonBeamMcSwine
2:39
Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, Yu Chang and Cesar Hernandez as a four part rotation for Util, 2B, SS and days off for Jose Ramirez at 3B for the Indians.. Does this make sense/work for you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
No, because rosters are going to be 26 players, and in fact Roster Resource has Cleveland going with just a 3-man bench, with Hedges at C, Rosario as IF/OF and Luplow as OF (Hernandez and Giménez in the lineup). I don't think Chang profiles as useful enough to be a 4th, would think that a lefty power bat off the bench makes some sense.
Sharps
2:45
are there any years where a rule that the top vote-getter for the hall automatically gets entry would have caused problems?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
No, not really. All of the top vote-getters in years of shutouts got in within a couple of years by one route or another. It would be a perfectly reasonable way to go in years that nobody hits 75% to take the leader because the odds say almost certainly that person will get in some day. That said, when that one person is noted insurrection supporter Curt Schilling, we're working in uncharted territory
TomBruno23
2:48
You were a Mets fan growing up, right? Who was your favorite player as a kid...anyone under the radar besides your Strawberry and Gooden types?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
No, I grew up a Dodgers fan. Didn't have much affinity for the Mets esp once they got good but I liked  Mookie Wilson and Rusty Staub, also Hubie Brooks from the days when they were still a pretty crummy team
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