JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/5/21

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/5/21

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Cube Jockey

2:51

A group of 16 people put Harold Baines in the HOF. A decent percentage of them played with and/or managed him. Do you take the baseball writers election less seriously now, knowing that whoever doesn’t get in just needs to win over 12 non-analytical voters at a later date?

Jay Jaffe

2:53

I think the committee process needs reform. I'd be in favor of doubling the size of the committee and making anybody who had a direct connection to him as manager, GM or teammate recuse themselves on that particular vote. Maybe there are 3 guys in the room connected to the next Baines equivalent so he has to get 75% of 29, or 22 votes, instead of 24 or 32.

2:54

Wait, i misread your question.

2:55

i think the flaws with the committee system show the writers' vote — with its large sample — to be a superior system in that regard, even if it, too, is an imperfect process. Remember, it's been only a few years that the line has started moving again with regards to living ex-player candidates elected by committees; we had a long stretch of nobody getting in by that route; it was a death sentence for a candidacy.

fake baseball fan

2:55

Vizquel's best comparable non-Hall of Famer is ___

Jay Jaffe

2:56

Dave Concepcion and Mark Belanger, but with not as much peak value. Solid component of perennial contender, but too limited in his all-around game to be a HOFer.

TomBruno23

2:57

Do you enjoy watching college baseball? I get all excited in February, watch a few innings here and there and then forget about it once Grapefruit/Cactus gets underway.

Jay Jaffe

2:59

I can't say I really watch much of it, though for a couple of years I did have assignments to cover televised CWS games. I go in not knowing very much at all, and it takes awhile to adjust to the aluminum bats and the bunting, but it's still baseball and still enjoyable. I liken it to beer, it may not be my favorite brand or style, but it's still beer, and how bad can that be?

Mike Ortman

2:59

Could not be more excited to have Yu Darvish on my Padres. Feels like he has had a more remarkable career than his BR page reflects. Does he have an outside chance at the Hall, or zero chance?

Jay Jaffe

3:01

He hasn't done enough to put himself in the picture, with just 25.0 career WAR including offense through his age 33 season. He has one season with WAR higher than 3.5. I'd love to see him go bananas for a few years and give it a run because when he's on, he's so watchable

TomBruno23

3:01

Say where you went to undergrad by naming the best player from the school...Max Scherzer.

Jay Jaffe

3:02

Well, nobody remembers Fred Tenney even though he was much, much better but It's just absolutely bonkers if you stop to think about Bill Almon being the 1-1 of the 1974 draft until you consider what a fly-by-night organization the Padres were

Maddoning

3:03

Planning a trip this year to Drummer's Cove? If you kayak there in June there are alot of turtles in the grass along the cove, and it's horseshoe crab mating season! Good times!

Jay Jaffe

3:03

Yup, heading to Wellfleet again in June! Hope to see more horseshoe crabs, as we saw a bunch last year — which seemed like the first time they were in abundance in the years I've been going

David

3:04

26 player roster and only a 3 man bench? I miss 5 player benches.

Jay Jaffe

3:04

We live in terrible times

thomas

3:06

Who are your top 5 third basemen? I have Rendon, Bregman, Ramirez, Arenado, and Chapman in that order. The first two are interchangeable, and the last 3 are all close too in my opinion.

Jay Jaffe

3:09

I'd say those are probably the five, with Machado number 6, and I'd have Arenado and Chapman outside the top 3 based on last year's injuries. I don't know if there's really a wrong order within those two sub-tiers but i like the extra dimensions that Ramirez's SB and switch-hitting abilities add.

Just flipped over to the Angels-A's exhibition so as to see Ohtani's start as I want to write about him and the Angels next week

3:10

I have Roku for my office MLB.tv sub and I spent 30 minutes yesterday trying to find the damn remote so i could watch a game — I hadn't used it since replacing my desk and wi-fi system. It was comical and sad.

david

3:11

who do you think is the next unanimous hall of famer. pujols? ichiro? trout?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

I think Ichiro has a shot.

fake baseball fan

3:11

___ voters will leave off Trout or Pujols for some weird reason.

Jay Jaffe

3:12

Trout will be unanimous, 3-5 will leave Pujols off because they don't believe his age was accurate

Guest

3:13

You talked about Carlos Correa still being on a potential path to the HOF last week, especially when looking at production relative to age. I can understand him being on track to compile good career totals, based on a fairly early start; but how would you evaluate his peak, at this point? If he does not have a few more really strong seasons, it seems like his peak would include his first few strong seasons and the past 3 more middling ones- would it be good enough?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

it's tough to get a full picture of his peak given that he's played only 6 seasons, and three of those with fewer than 100 games (2 with fewer than 81 games). He's banked two seasons of 6+ WAR already ,though there are a lot of players with 4 or more such seasons through age 25. I think we're still looking at a lot of potential rather than established greatness.

love that curve

3:15

do you think sale will be pitching at a high level at the end of the season, or will 2021 be a prelude to 22?

Jay Jaffe

3:18

I think history has shown us again and again that pitchers who undergo TJ rarely return to full form immediately. I also think it's worth noting that we've seen fairly few superstar-level starters undergo TJ in the first place. Just one is in the Hall (Smoltz), and Verlander will be second even if he returns as just a shadow of his former self. I'll have more on this later this season.

jamesdakrn

3:18

What's your gut call on Choo's statline in KBO this season?

Jay Jaffe

3:18

I bet he tears it up. .320/.430/.550

jamesdakrn

3:19

Shouldn't the Hall acknowledge some of the best international players as well? While Ichiro is a surefire HoFer, i think we should recognize the contribution of guys like Fernando Valenzuela, Hideo Nomo, Chan Ho Park & others as well

Jay Jaffe

3:20

I like the idea but it's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not the International one. Would love to see those guys you named, perhaps they could do an annual award in honor of international play, in parallel to the Buck O'Neil Award.

John

3:21

I disagree on your committee answer . Players, managers, and execs from the era are great resources. Writers, by and large, have never played the game. All one has to do is read the columns of many of the writers to know they are not all qualified.

Jay Jaffe

3:21

I didn't say they should be excluded from the process, just recused with regards to a given candidate to whom they're obviously linked so that there's not a direct conflict of interest in the voting.

Bring Back Mookie

3:21

Last summer, I saw a group of 13 seals at a sunset on Duck Harbor in Wellfleet. It was wild.

Jay Jaffe

3:23

wow, that sounds great. We've done a walk to the seals but not since the baby arrived; we were just talking about whether she could handle the walk this year and I think we'll give it a shot

Sanford

3:23

Thanks as always for your great work, Jay. Any thoughts on the recent card market boom? Ever get into collecting yourself?

Jay Jaffe

3:25

Thanks for the kind words. I was into card collecting as a kid, which basically was from 1978 (eventually completed that Topps set, albeit nowhere near mint condition) to about 1983. I was long gone by the time it turned into a speculator's game. I pick up cards here and there every year but mainly because I just like the feel of a stack in my hands. something to look at and ponder

I did buy some card sheets to house and display my several packs of Gummy Arts cards. I'm entertained what I guess we might call the custom card market but Gummy is the only set I've bought anything from.

3:26

Which reminds me that for my birthday last year my friends chipped in for this to be commissioned:

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