JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/23

Jay Jaffe

2:00

Good afternoon, folks, and happy World Baseball Classic 2023 start day to those of you celebrating!

2:01

Yesterday, I wrote about Max Scherzer's first two spring starts and his adventures with the new pitch clock. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-tests-the-limits-of-the-new-p...

For tomorrow I'm working on something about Chris Sale's return

2:02

Today: just chat, so pitter-patter let's get at 'er

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:04

True or false: the best Team Japan WBC pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani is Yoshi Yamamoto.

Jay Jaffe

2:05

I honestly don't know much about Yamamoto but I know there's a large contingent who would point to Roki Sasaki, who struck out 35.3% of all hitters last year and walked just 4.7%. I've seen clips but looking forward to watching him pitch

Eh?

2:05

Who do you think of when I say Luis Garcia? There are 3 of them playing in MLB.

Jay Jaffe

2:07

Well, since I was writing about two Mets-Nationals games for yesterday I'd say the Nationals infielder, who took Scherzer over the wall in his second start, but normally i default to the Astros hurler. Had to look up who the third one was (Padres reliever)

Eh?

2:07

Do people call you JJ?

Jay Jaffe

2:09

Very, very few. I've never been particularly fond of the nickname. Had a classmate in elementary school who went by J.J.; those were his initials, the same as his seven (?) brothers and sisters. My brother calls his wife Jennifer JJ sometimes which is one more reason i avoid going by that

TheVoiceInYourHead

2:10

Long-term solution at 3b for Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe

2:12

Unless it's Miguel Vargas, who mainly played 3B in the minors but is more likely to play 2B in the majors this year, I'm not sure that person is in the organization now.

emarkaye

2:12

Is there a stadium you haven't been to that you want to visit? If you didn't have one already in mind, give us your top contender and oh yeah, it can be for any sport and in any country.

Jay Jaffe

2:13

Of the ones I have yet to get to — maybe about half of them — PNC Park in Pittsburgh is by far the one I want to see most.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

2:14

What are the odds that MLB does some form of radical realignment when it finally expands?

Jay Jaffe

2:15

There's certainly going to be a push for realignment when it happens, and like many a Manfred-era change, it's probably going to suck. The intractability of the Oakland and Tampa Bay situations seems to be the only thing keeping that from happening

YorDaddy

2:15

Will there be a scorekeeping distinction made between pitch clock violation balls and strikes and by extension walks and K's? Should there be?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

There should be, and i expect there will, but it will cause some headaches to implement, especially for all of the stat services

Dan the Man McGRAWWWW

2:17

Could Bellinger still right his ship and get into the hall or has he missed too many prime years

Jay Jaffe

2:18

he's still young enough to turn it around but I think I'd bet on oceanfront property in Idaho becoming the next big thing before I'd bet on Cody turning it around to that extent. I'm not sure his shoulder will ever be the same, and good lord, he'll never stop tinkering

Krusty

2:18

What's your take on the state of play of advanced defensive metrics in 2023?

It feels like things have taken a big step forward between UZR being updated with RAA last year, plus other new metrics coming out. Are we at a place where we can start to regard them as reliable and maybe not quite so fuzzy?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

I think we always should approach them with some caution. Ideally you want to see them lining up in the same direction (Positive or negative), using samples larger than a single season to draw conclusions, and being mindful of how each one is put together. UZR not capturing shifts, DRS not incorporating framing, things like that.

wandersuero

2:21

Could Christian Arroyo hit for an .800 ops this year as a full time second baseman

Jay Jaffe

2:22

Considering that he calls Fenway Park home, I don't think it's out of the question but I also don't think he hits the ball hard enough to where that's something more attainable than a 90th-percentile outcome.

The guy who asks the lunch question

2:22

What's for lunch?

Jay Jaffe

2:23

Beef shawarma wrap from Naya, my new favorite neighborhood lunch spot. I usually go for the chicken but it's been a few days of good eating and so i could indulge

Trevor B

2:23

Hey Jay, do you think there’s going to be a lockout in 2026? Missed games in 2027?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

Man, didn't we just finish a lockout? Why you gotta be a buzzkill?

2:25

I suspect that now that they've done it once, the owners and Manfred are shameless enough to do it again, but I think there's far too much money at stake to wipe out games

copecru81

2:25

How many PA's does O. Cab get with Yanks this year. Steady at one position or play all over?

Jay Jaffe

2:27

I'd say about 300 and that he'll play all over the place. Really impressed by him last year — this is a guy who had never played outfield professionally and put up 9 DRS in 208 innings in right thanks mainly to his arm. I wouldn't bet on that being sustainable but I think he can be a useful spot player

Andy

2:29

What's your personal expectation regarding stolen bases and the rule changes? Will we really see a noticeable increase in stolen bases? If so, will it be more a result of the pickoff limitations or the clock?

Jay Jaffe

2:30

I think we'll see an uptick in per-game rates and success %, but not as much as we're seeing early in spring training. The pickoff limitations would certainly seem to favor runners and I think are the bigger driver than, say, the larger bases

Lou Perltzman

2:31

Jesus Jay you're not that far from Pittsburgh. Tickets are practically free here

Jay Jaffe

2:33

It's a 6 hour drive and I don't have a car (haven't had one since moving to NYC in 1995), and as a husband and parent of a small child, I generally don't have the flexibility to just jump on an airplane to go see baseball on a whim; it's more likely that baseball is an add-on to another trip (like visiting Petco when I meet up with family in San Diego).

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:34

Fangraphs' own BOARD has Yamamoto over Roki. For same, Jay. For shame.

Jay Jaffe

2:35

One's a 55 FV at 24 years old, and the other is a 50 at 21. For as much as I respect Eric's prospect coverage, I would hardly call one ranking like that definitive.

Guest

2:37

If you had to pick one struggling OFer to realize a fraction of his potential, would you go Jo Adell or Jarred Kelenic?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

maybe Adell because the raw tools (speed and power) are so loud. I'd love to see them both succeed, though

Pedro

2:38

AI is making inroads in science, medicine and other fields. Could we get AI-based analysis of hitters, pitchers, defensive metrics etc soon?

Load More Messages

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat