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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
I'm sure we will and I suspect some of it will be hot garbage.
Travis Jackson
2:39
Likelihood that Brandon Crawford stays on a Hall of Fame ballot for more than 1 year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
virtually nil. 1,337 hits (and eventually still well south of 2,000), 99 OPS+ and 30.8 career WAR aren't numbers that will keep a guy on the ballot
Skip
2:40
Which five people are in the Jay Jaffe Mustache Hall of Fame? Assume you have voting rights as you've had a mustache for over 10 years (I assume).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Only five? Man, there are probably five on the mid-70s A's alone. Fingers, Catfish, Reggie, Tenace, and Bando.
2:44
five from all of baseball history is way too hard. Fingers, Bobby Grich, Goose Gossage, Deacon White, Don Mattingly and I'm just getting warmed up
Old Hoss Radbourn
2:44
Which pitcher's results were you most surprised by when you configured SJaws?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
I guess I'm surprised that Verlander, Kershaw and Greinke are all in the top 25, and Cone and Tiant in the top 50
NPB Bullet Train
2:45
It's a huge indication of the weakness of American railroads that there isn't a 3-hour train from NYC to Pittsburgh
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
agreed. Train travel in this country outside the Northeast corridor is so hopelessly inadequate and even within it's sometimes prohibitively expensive.
Syndergaardengnomes
2:47
Any reason to be optomistic on Kelenic?  I don't mean because of a few spring training HR's, I mean in general...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
He's 23, for one thing. It's far too early to write him off. Second, guys rework/rebuild their swings all the time and unlock new levels of success; sooner or later he and a coach/hitting guru are going to connect and he'll get there too. Doesn't mean the interim will be pretty, and maybe it won't help your fantasy team or even the Mariners, but barring injury, someday he'll become a productive major leaguer.
Dave
2:49
PIT is also low key one of the worst airports in America
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
yikes
Peter
2:51
Who has a better season Cedric Mullins, Luis Robert, Jazz Chisolm, or Ozzie Albies?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
I'll go with Robert but I think they're all pretty close... 3.4 to 4.2 WAR via our Depth Charts projections
Bill
2:51
MLB needs to redefine a quality start. 6 plus innings and 3 or less earned runs is outdated. It should be 4 IP 1 ER or lessX 5IP 2 ER or less or 6 plus IP 3 or less earned runs. Change my mind.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
call it something else if you want to count something else.
2:53
the quality start is a useful metric — more useful than pitcher wins. The 6/3 case happens in like 10% of quality starts. The odds are that if you've given your team six innings you've pitched well.
Anon21
2:53
As dictator of baseball (let's include the HOF), would your first act be: 1. abolishing the zombie runner; 2. banning the cheapskate Bob Nutting for life; 3. inducting Bonds and Clemens; or something else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I'd probably start with holding off on the zombie runner until the 12th or 13th inning, would add Dick Allen to the Hall of Fame before Bonds and Clemens, and would ban Castellini along with Nutting, but i think that's a pretty good outline you've drawn. I'd also start arbitration earlier and have higher minimum salaries.
Craig
2:56
Since Farhan Zaidi took over in SFG, they have signed 11 free agent pitchers that started at least 5 games in their first season with the Giants. Of the 11, only Drew Pomeranz in 2019 did not do well for them. And, Farhan has had some big "hits", including: Kevin Gasuman in 2020, Drew Smyly in 2020, Anthony DeSclafani in 2021, Alex Wood in 2021. Others included Trevor Cahill in 2020 (improvement of 1.94 FIP from prior year), Tyler Anderson in 2020 (improvement of 3.26 FIP from prior year), Aaron Sanchez in 2021 (improvement of 2.54 FIP from prior year), Jakob Junis last season (improvement of 0.66 FIP from prior year). Plus, Carlos Rodon repeated his big numbers when others were concerned about health in 2021. Even Alex Cobb repeated a good 2021 in LAA with a solid season last year in SFG. Do you think the trend can continue with Sean Manaea and/or Ross Stripling? Perhaps Manaea can have a season more like he did in 2021 in OAK than 2022 in SDP?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
Farhan knows what he's doing! Have been hearing a lot about Manaea showing improved velocity in spring training so it wouldn't surprise me if he joins the party. Stripling has certainly flashed strong form before (recall, he was a 2018 All-Star) but has never gotten a full season in the rotation; maybe this is his year too.
Cito's Mustache
3:00
Michael's piece on Brett Baty today was a good read. If you were Mets GM, how would you handle his playing time to start the season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I think i'd have cleared a spot for Baty already by trading Escobar over the winter, eaten a bit of salary and put the savings towards a better fourth outfielder than Tommy Pham.
Big Ben
3:04
What does 80 FV Wander Franco's upside look like at this point? He has been an above average bat thus far, but hardly one of the best players in baseball. Was he over-graded as a prospect or should we expected a big breakout at some point? Given he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, his power upside seems limited but hit bat to ball skills are obviously excellent.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Probably not that much different than when Eric hung that grade on him; the kid turned 22 this week and has 4.7 WAR and a 121 wRC+ in 153 games in the majors so far. We'd all like to see him hit the ball harder but it's not like he was an 80 on the hope that he would realize his raw power, it's because he profiled as an exceptional two-way shortstop who could stay on the position .
DBRuns
3:08
Sign me up for ocean-front property in Idaho! There are probably people who wouldn't mind if California fell into the sea.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
I'd be happy to see those people fall into the sea
Wesley
3:08
What is the right proportion to judge playoff performance as opposed  to regular season performance in evaluating an accomplished players career ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
17.265%
Wait, no! 17.263%
3:10
(I don't think there's an exact answer tbh — if you're evaluating for the Hall of Fame, it's still just one of many factors. And if you're not evaluating for the Hall of Fame you can go nuts weighing it however. you want!)
Well-Beered Englishman
3:10
That person who asked about the mustache hall of fame didn't specify they had to be baseballers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Well, that narrows it down LOL
Guest
3:10
Best guess at Yankees starting SS, LF and 5th starter opening day and at the end of the season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
Peraza, Hicks, German -> Peraza, Cabrera, [starter who arrives in the Gleyber Torres trade once Volpe arrives]
TheVoiceInYourHead
3:15
Favorite De La Soul song?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
Alas, Three Feet High and Rising is the only album of theirs I gave much time to back in the day but I will always love "Potholes in My Lawn" for the Parliament sample of "Little Old Country Boy" (the yodeling)
Birds
3:17
The Mariners gonna let Julio run this season, or they gonna shut that down again to make sure he doesn't hurt himself?
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