JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/8/18

Jay Jaffe

12:01

From slushy Brooklyn, welcome to today's chat! Thanks for stopping by

Gsellman

12:02

I’ve still got something to give, right?

Jay Jaffe

12:05

That late-2016 stint in the majors was promising, but looking back at the lack of success at Triple A, I'm not sure the rotation was the right place for him, and he basically appears to be a guy on the fringes. That sinker got hit pretty hard last year

Dale

12:05

Would the Yankees trade Judge for Correa straight up?

Jay Jaffe

12:08

Hell yes. Correa's just 23 and plays a premium position well enough to stay there for a few more years, where Judge is about to turn 26, plays an outfield corner, is likely to regress from last year's great season (that 2nd half slump notwithstanding) and has a similar player on the roster in Giancarlo Stanton. Brian Cashman wouldn't give Jeff Luhnow a chance to come to his senses if that phone call came.

David

12:08

Mustache grooming tips, I like this addition to the FG repertoire!

How frequently should someone trim his mustache/beard?

Jay Jaffe

12:10

I can't speak for those with beards, because my lone attempt at growing one, as a n about-to-turn 19-year-old college freshman was dreadful and patchy (and reddish). But unless you're a major league closer who is supposed to look surly and unkempt, I'd say you have to tend to that upper lip garden no more than every third day to keep it tamed.

Matt

12:11

So, what are your thoughts on Moose? I traded Rendon for him and Pollock back in Feb, and now I'm thinking that dropping him might be a necessity. But pride, yo.

Jay Jaffe

12:12

I'm *really* not the guy to ask about fantasy baseball questions, sorry. That said, I'd hold onto Moustakas because I think the threat of him waiting until after the June draft so as to detach from the Quality Offer-related compensation is a bluff. The chance that he signs a one-year deal and struggles after missing spring training seems too high for that risk.

David

12:13

What are your favorite non-MLB ballparks in the tri-state area?

Jay Jaffe

12:16

MCU Park, where the Brooklyn Cyclones play in Coney Island, is a very cool and unique park given its amusement park backdrop, though it was better before they had to replace the grass with turf (I haven't been in a couple years so I'm not sure if they changed it back). Richmond County Bank Ballpark on the tip of Staten Island, where the Baby Bombers play, has a very cool view of lower Manhattan. Plus you get a free ferry ride out of the trip. I haven't been to any New Jersey or Connecticut ballparks.

Rabbinical College Guy

12:16

Which division race do you think will be over first and by when?

Jay Jaffe

12:17

I think that unless the Mets rotation rebounds in strong fashion, the NL East will effectively be over by Memorial Day.

Sonny

12:17

Does Jake Arrieta still play baseball? There's like 6 teams on the playoff bubble that should give him a job

Jay Jaffe

12:18

I agree. Still think the Cardinals and Brewers both really need him, in particular.

Matt Klentak

12:19

When does Ervin Santana's FIP catch up to him? He constantly beats it by a large margin. Does this type of finger injury linger and effect his grip?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

So long as he's able to limit the quality of contact — and he was in the top 10 in both Soft Contact % (high) and Hard Contact % (low) — and avoids pitching for any team that occupies a bandbox, he'll outdo his FIP. I'd be a bit nervous about any finger injury as to how it affects a pitcher's grip, but I don't have much deep knowledge of the specifics here offhand.

Theodore Epstein

12:23

What do you expect from Kyle Schwarber?

Jay Jaffe

12:24

high comedy in the outfield, 25 homers by the end of July, and a trade to an AL team on or around the deadline.

TRANE

12:25

Does it seem like the turnover from the personnel has been higher than ever? A lot of vets cut out of a job

Jay Jaffe

12:26

the league-wide trend is certainly towards younger, less experienced — and lower paid players. Generally those guys have minor league options remaining, which opens up the possibility of endlessly churned roster spots, as we're seeing in some bullpens. So yes, more turnover.

Bill

12:27

Is the swing revolution, at least so far as emphasizing loft, somewhat of a swing throwback. I remember a great Sports Illustrated article back in the 80's that was a discussion of hitting between Ted Williams, Wade Boggs and Don Mattingly, and Williams going after the Charlie Lau/Walt Hriniak hotting philosophy (saying it put hitting back 25 years) and arguing if favor of greater loft in the swing (swinging slightly up), and for pulling the ball more. Of course he also was against the free swinging high strikeout approach that has only increased currently, but the hitting philosophy in general seems more like the current "new swing"

Jay Jaffe

12:29

yes, I think you're onto something. In this era of pitch counts, I think Williams would have been particularly vocal about the need for hitters to be patient in addition to preaching the gospel of launch angle.

Pat

12:32

Rick Reuschel & his 34th all time B-R WAR #- What am I missing with him? 67th in innings, but, most of his other #'s (WHIP, K's, ERA+ FIP, K-BB, etc) really don't seem that impressive. Ballpark effects? Crappy defenses behind him?

Jay Jaffe

12:35

I swear somewhere I have a few hundred recent words about Big Daddy lying around but I can't find them at the moment. No, the numbers don't jump off the page but he had consistently good ERAs in a tough environment (esp Wrigley Field) and good peripherals over a TON of innings and had a good late-career renaissance at ages 39-40 with the Giants. He's on the leaderboards for ERA+, FIP and WAR a lot but didn't get much recognition in his heyday and is probably never going to be recognized with a Hall berth. But the guy could pitch.

Mordecai Brown

12:35

Arrieta to the Brewers and that's a decent top-three in Nelson, Anderson, Arrieta, with Davies as a solid four. That's a playoff team no?

Jay Jaffe

12:37

Our Depth Charts projections really doesn't like the Brewers' current rotation (which isn't helped by Davies' oblique or Nelson's shoulder injury) or their middle infield, but to me, their outfield upgrades should push them closer to a playoff berth. Add Arrieta while expecing a bit of regression elsewhere among those starters and I see them as contenders.

Lou Sassole

12:37

Which teams do you have your eye on as surprise Wild Card contenders this year?

Jay Jaffe

12:39

I'm not very high on the Blue Jays given their aging roster but our Depth Charts projections call for 87 wins. That would surprise me, as would the Giants, if so many things go right that they leapfrog past the Diamondbacks and Rockies after last year's improvements

Scrapper

12:39

It appears that MLB ultimately threw up their hands to speed the game up and I can't imagine that limiting pitcher visits to six/game will have any substantial impact. Frankly, there seems to be an ongoing debate between the "all baseball is good" camp and the "let's go while we're young" camp. Which camp are you in?

Jay Jaffe

12:42

I think Manfred wants to be viewed as doing SOMETHING and mound visits was an easier thing to implement unilaterally than a pitch clock. I doubt it improves things a whole lot but we really do need the players to take ownership of this issue and self-police.

JWR

12:43

What is the biggest Hall of Fame travesty that we've seen in the last 20 years?

Jay Jaffe

12:45

The exclusion of Minnie Minoso — in part because of the technicality of committee members not being able to consider the totality of his Negro Leagues and MLB careers — is the worst because he was a major pioneer, the Latin American Jackie Robinson. That trumps the elections of Jim Rice and Jack Morris, or the failures to elect Bonds and Clemens, to name a few other things that stick in my craw.

Jay

12:46

If things go well for Ohtani playing two ways and maybe eventually Brendan McKay, how long do you think it will be before we see a two sport pro athlete again? Or is knowing how important rest is now for athletes going to eliminate that possibility?

Jay Jaffe

12:48

I think those are two separate beasts. it takes massive commitment to be good at one sport, probably moreso now than it did in the 1990s when Bo Jackson and Deion Sanderswere in their heydays, given improved training methods and understanding of the importance of rest

Alex

12:48

Did the Indians mildly overpay for Yonder Alonso given the slow market? Seems to me like they should have held out for Logan Morrisson

Jay Jaffe

12:50

it certainly does seem like they overspent by striking early, but Alonso is generally viewed as a better fielder than most of those other alternatives (though I know the metrics were down on him in the field in 2017).

Gary

12:50

Okay how do the Yankees handle Judge, Severino and Sanchez all hitting free agency the same year (and 1 year after Bird)???

Jay Jaffe

12:54

I think it's a bit early to fret about the winter of 2022-23. They're the Yankees, which means that the money will be there if all of them merit keeping around, and maybe a pre-FA extension or two lowers the cost a bit. But the chance that all four will be equally worth keeping five years from now seems very low.

Slurve

12:56

Edgar in the HOF next year?

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