JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/9/20

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/9/20

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Jay Jaffe

12:35

Hey folks, sorry for the delay, which will extend just a few more minutes. I just filed a piece on the Astros' rotation question marks behind Justin Verlander, who left yesterday's start with a triceps complaint. Let me get situated and I'll begin tackling the questions.

12:41

OK, i'm back. White knuckle Monday morning spilling into afternoon, but lunch (sushi) is on the way and so are some answers.

Dave

12:41

Congrats on your promotion to EIC! What big, sweeping changes will rock the site under your rule?

Jay Jaffe

12:42

LOL I was misidentified as the EIC this morning in a tweet promoting my appearance on Chicago's 670 The Score, but co-host Connor McKnight set the record straight:

@jay_jaffe We at this Twitter account sincerely regret the error and apologize, profusely, to @megrowler @fangraphs and baseball fans everywhere.

We do, however, appreciate the conversation and the irony of a non-editor editing the tweet.

Dave Kingman

12:43

Are you worried about Verlander (scale of 1-10)?

Jay Jaffe

12:44

i'd say maybe 3-4 on a scale of 10. The comparison has been made to his 2015 absence, which lasted into mid-June, but the Tigers appear to have mishandled the initial diagnosis and he also strained a lat during rehab. If I'm throwing out a wild guess before the MRI results come in, I think this points to him starting the season on the injured list but returning by mid- to late April.

12:45

I caution you that I'm not a doctor, and not only did NOT spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express but haven't been sleeping especially well due to some upper back trouble lately.

Green Gambit

12:45

Will Yasiel Puig be on a major league roster on Opening Day?

Jay Jaffe

12:46

I'd say that we're rapidly approaching the point at which even if he were signed today, unless he's in tip-top shape he probably begins the year in extended spring training working towards a mid-April debut.

The Jay Strain

12:47

would you be in favor of a shorter season to keep players healthier?

Jay Jaffe

12:48

Yes but not drastically. For the sake of historical continuity, I'd like to see a return to 154-game schedules. That comes out to an extra day or two off every month, which wouldn't be drastic but would break up some of those long road trips or provide an off day after a coast-to-coast flight.

branik best

12:48

I've been meaning to ask this question since Marvin Miller was voted into the HoF and can now thank the Coronavirus (allowing me to WFH) since I'm available when you're chatting. Will we ever see a player agent in the Hall of Fame? Will the first be Scott Boras?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

Color me skeptical. The first hurdle is that he has to get on the ballot, and it's not at all clear how receptive the BBWAA elders who assemble it, or the Hall (who approves it) are to what would be a first-of-its-kind candidacy. And then, given how long it took the players to get their shit together regarding Miller, I can't see them organized enough to elect Boras, particularly when you can expect the panel's team execs to uniformly vote against him, as with Miller.

Jerry Mumphrey

12:52

What is mlb doing to prepare for the corona virus (besides boycotting Mexican beer)?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

Over the weekend MLB issued a statement

Major League Baseball has issued the following statement regarding the impact of coronavirus on MLB.

Additionally, the league is encouraging teams and players to give out pre-autographed stuff while limiting contact with autograph-seeking fans https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2020/03/07/mlb-coronavirus-a...

it doesn't sound as though the league expects the start of the season to be delayed, as is the case with the NPB and KBO, but the first league-wide conference call on the matter is scheduled for today, and we could see additional information about MLB's plan after that.

Let's fix the Giants

12:56

Do you think the Giants could use Samardzja or Belt in a Clint Frazier deal? What about paying Lowrie or Familia's contract for Dominic Smith?

Jay Jaffe

1:01

Any thought of trading Frazier is probably on hold given the injuries of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, not to mention Aaron Hicks. Plsu, between Luke Voit, Mike Ford, and Miguel Andujar, the Yankees are plenty deep at first base so I don't see Belt as being a target for them, and I doubt they have interest in Smarj even given their rotation hits, as they're pretty high on their internal depth.

I could see Lowrie's contract being a poison pill as part of a Smith trade, but I don't really see a fit with the Giants given the presence of Pete Alonso. Samardzija might make some sense as a back rotation option in the event of a longer injury, but I think the team views Porcello/Matz/Wacha as enough to get by for the final two spots in the event of normal aches and pains

1:03

OK my Verlander piece is out https://blogs.fangraphs.com/verlanders-triceps-injury-spotlights-quest... and will be updated later today if there's news regarding his MRI

1:05

Lunch has arrived and with it, a reminder of how much harder it is to eat sushi at a keyboard rather than a table. Bear with me...

Tyler

1:06

Over/under 145 innings for McCullers this year?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

I'd say that's right around where the O/U should be set. We have him at 139 in our Depth Charts, and as noted in today's piece, that would be his MLB high. So maybe take the under but don't bet the baby's tuition fund on it

128OZ

1:10

Zac Gallen- future ace or one hit wonder? Probably somewhere between? Feel like his return was ultra light

Jay Jaffe

1:11

he looks very much like a midrotation guy right now. maybe more if he can retain last year's gain in swinging strikes, as Jake Mailhot wrote recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/there-are-some-diamonds-at-the-back-of-ari...

Gold Dust

1:13

Do you see Rays' brass bucking tradition and calling up Wander Franco in August/September? Maybe they'll try to make an impression on future Montreal fan-base, or maybe they ink him to a long-term deal like what Atlanta did with Acuna?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

i'd be very surprised given that he topped out in High-A last year. The consensus among prospect hounds is a 2021 ETA, and even that is just his age-20 season

Daniel

1:15

Who is someone we can watch for on the Orioles?

Jay Jaffe

1:17

Besides the buzzards circling over Camden Yards? I'd go with Trey Mancini, John Means, and Hunter Harvey. And of course whatever Chris Davis does after two seasons totaling -4.5 WAR will be interesting, but perhaps watchable only through your fingers as they shield your eyes

Jake M

1:19

Do you think Reynaldo Lopez has some upside he can tap into this season or do you think he will probably remain a competent if not very efficient innings eater?(not that that is a bad thing.)

Jay Jaffe

1:22

I think that just about every White Sox pitcher stands to gain significantly via the arrival of Yasmani Grandal. Via Baseball Prospectus' framing stats, the Sox were the majors' second-worst team in framing, with James McCann and Welington Castillo both well in the red; meanwhile, Grandal was second in framing runs. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2801188

BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS

"mild lat strain" for Verlander

Justin Verlander has a “mild lat strain,” general manager James Click said. He has been shut down.

1:23

There's no timetable yet for his return

colerebby

1:24

Hey Jay, what do you think about Austin Riley and his chances of being the everday 3B to start the year?

Jay Jaffe

1:26

We have Johan Camargo ahead of him on the Depth Chats, and between his offseason knee surgery and his late-season slump after that auspicious beginning, it wouldn't surprise me if he starts the year in the minors or as a bench piece rather than the starter out of the gate.

NihilistDuda

1:27

Every effin year, I have some sort of optimism about my Mets. Evry effin year (mostly) they roundly disappoint. Yet, somehow, this year seems different. Less bs with hiding injuries. Thoughts on whether Brodie has brought some legitimacy to this franchise and whether you have some optimism in store for 2020 (when you rightfully have blistered the club in previous years)? Spring training springs eternal....

Jay Jaffe

1:27

I wrote about the Mets last week in the context of their mismatched outfield https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mets-have-a-mismatched-outfield-once-a...

1:30

I think they have the pieces to contend for a playoff spot so long as deGrom and Syndergaard remain healthy (knock on wood), but their roster makeup concerns me, particularly the defense in the outfield — and this is the second year in a row where the oddball collection of parts has been an issue. That's on BVW to remedy, and suffice it to say i'm not yet convinced he's very good at that aspect. Still, it's enough talent to keep the team interesting, and possibly to even win the division if most things go right.

Luis or Kyle

1:31

Luis Robert or Kyle Tucker ?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Tucker has really struggled in his MLB exposure (all of 144 PA) and while I'm not ready to write him off yet, I like Roberts' tools and ability to play center field better

Dave

1:33

Does Newcomb earn and hold onto a spot in Atlanta’s rotation?

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