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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/9/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:37
I think Cole Hamels' injury makes it likely he starts the year in the rotation, which I wrote about last week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cole-hamels-cranky-shoulder-will-test-brav...) but it probably comes down to how well Felix Hernandez pitches from there. If Hernandez is done, then yeah, Newcomb is probably a fixture provided he's pitching well. If the team needs short-term flexibility, he may need to go to the bullpen.
Dave
1:37
I’ve always been a proponent of taking away anonymity from HoF voters - would really love to know who didn’t vote for the likes of Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Griffey, etc. What are your thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:37
I'm on record as favoring full transparency.
1:39
I think voters should be accountable for their choices but at the same time I'd like if if interested bystanders take the volume of their responses down a notch or two when they disagree. Nobody is ever going to get fired by a publication for having an outlying HOF vote, for one thing.
Dave
1:39
As of right now, are you planning to change any of your early-season in-person baseball plans?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
Well, the FanGraphs staff trip to Arizona, which was supposed to begin on Wednesday and run through the weekend, was banged, and so the 2-3 spring games I was going to see are now gonna happen without me. I tend not to get up to the ballpark too often in April anyway, and while I'm more motivated to this year from a reporting standpoint, I'll take my cues from the teams and the daily media as to how to proceed.
Tyler Beigle
1:42
Will Ohtani live up to his 70 FV grade? Do you expect a good season for him in 2020?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:44
By definition (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/) a 70 FV prospect is a guy projected to produce an average of 9.5 to 12.5 WAR (depending upon whether he's a pitcher or hitter) over the course of his control years. Ohtani produced 3.8 WAR as a rookie between pitching and hitting, and 1.8 last year just as a hitter, so yeah, I think he's got a very good shot at living up to that so long as he doesn't suffer a major injury — I think even the bat gets him there if he were forced to give up pitching, though I'm glad that's not the case yet.
Green Gambit
1:46
What is the biggest x-factor on the path to a San Diego Padre wild card berth?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:46
Getting something besides replacement level work from Hosmer and Myers (whose depth charts estimates only forecast a combined 1.2 WAR, which won't cut it) and keeping the young arms healthy.
CubFan
1:47
With today's news concerning Verlander's lat strain you betting he ends up on the IL to start the year? He had a similar issue in 2015.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:47
Yes. As I said in the article, any shutdown pretty much guarantees he starts the year on the IL, and right now he has no timetable.
Sammy Sosa
1:48
The Mets get a lot of grief for paying Bobby Bonilla every year but deferred money is very common these days and smart teams do it all the time. Was it really a bad idea at the time?
AvatarJay Jaffe
Justin Zoolander
1:49
Should MLB be concerned that park attendance has declined 7% over the last three seasons?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:50
Yes, very much so. The game is awash in media money and so teams are raking it in hand over fist, but they need to do a better job at keeping ticket and concession prices affordable for fans.
Eric
1:50
Do you project Yandy Diaz to be in the lineup nearly everyday or to be used in a platoon? The Rays depth seems to hinder his value.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:53
I think he'll be a regular. He projects as their best third baseman (though the defense is iffy) and makes for a good platoon fit with Choi at first base, where the top alternatives (N. Lowe and Tsutsugo) are lefties.
Big Joe Mufferaw
1:54
Its up to you, the Hall puts you in charge, do you include Bonds, Clemens and A-Rod in the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:57
I'm an advocate for separating what came before testing and suspension were set in place in 2004 and what came after, and so I'm all in favor of Bonds and Clemens being in the Hall (I've included them on my virtual ballots for the past eight years and will continue to do so when I get my real one this winter), and by the same token would NOT include A-Rod under that rule of thumb, at least initially. I won't rule out the possibility of a performance-only vote at some point, in which case he'd get the nod too, and if it were an all-or-nothing choice (Bonds/Clemens/A-Rod all in or not) I'd go with putting them all in.
Mandated joke
1:57
"Well, the FanGraphs staff trip to Arizona, which was supposed to begin on Wednesday and run through the weekend, was banged" (banging scheme!)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:57
(rimshot)
Sanford
1:57
You reckon it's more likely that MLB will play games in stadiums to start the year or that they'll delay the season entirely?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:58
The former. If they waver from that it's far more likely to be done via a period of empty stadiums rather than a delayed start to the season.
Joe Poz
1:59
Have you been following Posnanski's top 100 series at the Athletic? (Not to speak of a competitor, I subscribe to both). He might actually finish this time! He's at 18!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:59
Yes though i can't keep up with the pace. Really enjoyed his recent pieces on Frank Robinson and Mike Schmidt. Joe's always worth reading and this stuff is right in my wheelhouse.
Aristides Development
2:00
Is Eflin the only one talking about the seams right now? I also happened to hear Jed Hoyer make a comment during a Cubs broadcast on how he thought one flyball would carry further than it did. Have you all been hearing any chatter on the ball so far?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Not a lot. Tanaka said that he thought this ball was more like 2017, softer and with higher seams https://www.nj.com/yankees/2020/02/how-yankees-masahiro-tanaka-feels-a...
King Felix
2:02
What kind of year (and/or how many of them) would Felix Hernandez need to salvage his case for the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
From a WAR standpoint, I think he needs to be worth at least another 20 wins, which would push his JAWS to about 54; that's below the standard (61.5) but 11 out of 15 pitchers within two points of that are enshrined (not including Max Scherzer, who will pitch his way out of that and is headed for eventual enshrinement). From a traditional standpoint, I think getting past 200 wins (he's at 169) might be enough, and enough of a challenge that it will be rewarded as a comeback narrative.
Jetah Downs
2:06
How soon will I make my debut in Fenway?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
given that he just grazed Double A last year, I think the 2022 that Eric Longenhagen included in his report is reasonable but I've seen 2021 from other sources
Clarke Schmidt
2:09
Do I get a nice little opportunity until Paxton returns?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
while I'm less skeptical than I was a few weeks ago because he's had a strong spring, the fact that he's not on the 40-man roster creates an obstacle that his competition does not have to clear. Likewise, he has just 114 professional innings under his belt. I can see him helping the Yankees this year, particularly with Severino out, but I'd bet that with Montgomery more or less locking down a spot behind Cole, Tanaka, and Happ, it's either Garcia or Loaisiga who starts the year as the 5, with things rather fluid as Paxton and German return.
Severino to the 60 day!
2:15
"the fact that he's not on the 40-man roster creates an obstacle that his competition does not have to clear"
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
Good point. That move is inevitable but first dibs on the open slot would go to a third catcher if Sanchez needs to start the year on the IL, though right now his back soreness isn't a huge concern.
2:17
Whew, I went past my time allotment. Thanks for stopping by, and I'll see you next week!
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