JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/1/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/1/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:58

At the moment I'd go Gunnar, Witt, Elly. Gunnar has 1.5 more WAR than Witt and is a full year younger. Elly is much rawer — there's HOF talent there but he's gonna need more polish

Steve O

12:59

If Jazz puts up 4-5 wins the next couple of years, do you think some team might give him 150M in FA?

Jay Jaffe

1:02

If he performs at that level, and on that stage (with the Yankees), he's gonna get paid. The Willy Adames deal might be a bit on the high side, especially as he's a 2B not a SS, but Jazz will get nine figures if he continues to play as well as he's done since the start of last season

Gonzo

1:03

Why have we been seeing a lot of career infielders moving to the outfield? Merrill, Cruz, Altuve, Baez. Is it an actual trend, or just a coincidence?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Maybe more coincidence than trend to have so many notables doing so at once, but the defensive spectrum hasn't changed all that much over the years. CF is a bit easier than SS and open to those who run well. I am particularly curious to see how the Altuve transition goes given his HOF trajectory; on the other hand, I think the Baez move is just desperation in the midst of a bad contract and an injury stack in CF.

Jackson

1:05

Do you think the Phillies should have done more to plug their outfield hole (with a solid righty bat)?

Jay Jaffe

1:07

Dear God yes. Nick Castellanos is in the Replacement Level Killer Hall of Fame at this point. His knack for coming up big 5 times a year is offset by what he does the rest of the time.

Reds Enjoyer

1:07

Is the sample size too small for takeaways about pitch velocity? I think I'm in the "collapse looks very possible" camp for the Brewers because of how uninspiring the primary-pitch velocities looked for several of their guys this weekend.

Jay Jaffe

1:08

I'd wait before jumping to conclusions. Cold weather and spring workload ramp-ups tend to depress pitch velocities early in the season.

Guest

1:09

Crochet contract a little heavy?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

I just took a peek at Dan Szymborski's forthcoming analysis and — without offering an actual spoiler — saw that he pointed to an earlier piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fixing-a-hole-while-teams-train-this-sprin...) of his with a ZiPS projection that was in the ballpark, dollar-wise.

wheelhouse

1:12

leanhardt was apparently received divisively in yankees clubhouse which is why he's with the marlins now. are we going to be looking back at this 4 months from now when the entire league has the same tennis elbows stanton has right now and wondering how we could be so blind

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Anybody who's telling ballplayers something different than they're use to hearing – especially an MIT physicist — is going to be considered "divisive" in a clubhouse where a good portion of players don't have more than a high school diploma.

That said, I do wonder about the link between Stanton's bat and his elbow problems and think that the situation deserves closer study. As with some orthopedic surgeons' concerns about the impact of the sweeper (see Lindsey Adler's new article in the New Yorker https://www.newyorker.com/sports/sporting-scene/baseball-reaches-its-b...), innovation within baseball can be offset by the rush to ignore the physical costs.

Bubbles

1:17

If healthy for the full year, does Nootbaar get down ballot MVP votes? Bat speed is up and lifting the ball more. Very vayto begin with, but I'm calling a full breakout with 6+ WAR season.

Jay Jaffe

1:18

I like Lars — who doesn't? — but I don't 6-WAR-breakout like him just yet

Career fizzle

1:18

How about Jose Rijo? He seemed to be on a HOF trajectory until he practically disappeared at age 30.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

There are 30 billion pitchers who looked like they were on Hall trajectories in their 20s but got injured.

1:20

Rijo had one All-Star appearance and had finished no higher than 4th in the Cy Young voting before getting injured at 30. Tim Lincecum had two Cy Youngs and All-Star appearances through his age-25 season.

A stat I saw

1:20

Aaron Judge last 127 games (basically since your article last year, of course)

56 home runs
137 RBI
.362/ .496/ .816 (1.314 OPS)
256 wRC+.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Thank you for that! Always good to be reminded of how I turned his season around.

Extension enigma

1:23

Why did Garrett Crochet(6 years $170M) get such a massive extension compared to Cole Ragans(3 years, $13.25M)? It's not even close!

Jay Jaffe

1:25

Service time probably has a lot to do with it. Crochet has 4 years under his belt and the Red Sox needed to figure out after unloading a bunch of prospects for him whether he was going to stick around. Ragans has 2 years of service time and the Royals don't have a decision point that's as close at hand, plus they aren't a team that I believe will throw nine figures at a pitcher anytime soon.

Slew (Seattle)

1:26

AL central a 4 team tossup, or do you have a favorite?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

I've been kind of feeling this could be Detroit's year, but I'd feel more strongly if they'd done something substantial for the left side of that infield and didn't have so many injuries in the outfield

Spencer Torkelson

1:27

What does your gut say...have I finally turned the corner? Or small sample size fluke?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

I've already been wrong about Tork — who grew up next door to my oldest cousin in Petaluma, CA — more times than I'd care to admit.

1:29

So let's just say that I hope he's turned the corner but until he's slugging .600 at the All-Star break I'm not buying it.

Jeff in Jersey

1:29

Tough stretch for the Braves. I'm surprised to see that Lopez's injury & the loss of Profar for 80 games hasn't impacted their playoff odds more.

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Well, right now the assumption is still that both Strider and Acuña will slot seamlessly onto the roster and perform as they usually do (ignoring the variance in the latter's career, which is more than many people care to admit). Those are award winner-caliber additions if they're working right, and that can help offset much of what they've lost. But if they don't hit the ground running... it's another story

1:32

As I often say, especially at this time of year, it's not the first wave of injuries that kills a team's chances — it's when the second wave hits before the first wave has settled where you get the real problems. minor leaguers and scrapheap guys pressed into major league duty for too long, things of that nature

Guest

1:32

How soon do the sox think about getting Mayer in the major league lineup at SS and/or Anthony MLB looks in the outfield?

Jay Jaffe

1:33

Right now they've got such a logjam in the middle infield and the outfield that there's no reason to rush either of those guys. If injuries don't accelerate their timelines, I suspect they'll get looks after the All-Star break with an eye towards whether they can help in the postseason, if the Sox are on track.

Guest

1:34

Can Baty actually stick with the Metsies if he can hit? He doesn't look terrible at 2B.

Jay Jaffe

1:35

If he can hit, the Mets will find room for him. But... he hasn't hit yet.

12 to 6

1:35

mookie spent two weeks barfing and pooping himself down 15-20 lbs, then comes out and clobbers two homers (including a game winner) with a giant smile on his face. no question, i'll cede the rest of my time - baseball is f*****g awesome.

Jay Jaffe

1:35

Imagine trading Mookie Betts! You can't, it's just a dumb idea. Oh, wait...

Mike Lommler

1:36

Apart from the White Sox starters streak on no earned runs, do you have a favorite SSS stat of the season thus far?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

Willyer Abreu's .636/.750/1.364 line after hitting .050 this spring comes to mind. Devers (in the negative sense, but still whoa). The A's Max Muncy outhomering the Dodgers' Max Muncy

Dylan

1:39

It's early, but O'Neil Cruz has shown a marked improvement in terms of base stealing and plate discipline. Does this seem like its sustainable (not to the point of a .400 OBP or 100 SB), or do you think he ends up around where he was last year?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll take a step forward. Hit .277/.357/.464 (125 wRC+) with a 27% K rate after the break last year, and seems to have gotten off to a decent start in CF.

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