JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/11/19

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Jay Jaffe

1:09

My dude, 10 games doesn't *prove* anything for anybody, but your current numbers — in particular the batted ball stats that show you're elevating with more consistency — offers some hope that you won't be a black hole at the plate.

Aaron

1:10

I was wondering why there is no UZR for 2019 so far?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

It's coming tomorrow, but come on, if you're taking 10-15 games of defensive data seriously, I'm going to take out a restraining order on your use of the site.

Brian

1:11

Am I crazy or are all of the bullpens in the NL (outside of SF and SD) absolutely atrocious? I am a Mets fan and outside of the 2 shutouts vs Washington (Opening day and NYM home opener) each game has featured both bullpens give up a ton of runs.

Jay Jaffe

1:13

We've seen A LOT of bad bullpens so far. NINE NL teams have a bullpen ERA above 5.00, as do three in the AL. By FIP, the count is seven and three, respectively. So around a third of all bullpens right now are complete dumpster fires

Kevin Kouzmanoff

1:14

Was Chris Archer really the third best player in the short and long run in the Chris Archer trade? That has to be one of the worst trades I've ever seen if so.

Jay Jaffe

1:17

It's a dark thought but it does seem very possible that the Pirates are never going to get anything close to the version of Archer that the Rays had. Even if what Glasnow and Meadows are doing right now is unsustainable, it would appear that they've turned corners and are here for good.

Jason N

1:17

How long does it take to see if an offseason working on defense actually translated into better defense for a player? I’m specifically wondering if Francisco Mejia can stick at catcher or if that’s just the team over-hyping him because he put in a lot of work.

Jay Jaffe

1:18

By itself, one season of defensive data might not be enough for a true reading, but most people don't have the luxury of waiting that long. I would avoid forming too strong of an opinion without at least half a season of data unless it's at an extreme.

Leland

1:21

At what point do news outlets begin following Whit Merrifield's streak? If Trout or Betts were at 31 games, you wouldn't be able to avoid the coverage of it. Regardless, hitting streaks into the 30's are always exciting

Jay Jaffe

1:26

I think that in general there's less coverage of wrap-around streaks that span seasons than of streaks that are in-season, but the 30s is where things get interesting. IIRC, there's a big drop in the number of streaks that reach 31 games relative to 30, and so on. By the time you get to 35, they're very rare (see https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-hitting-streaks-c265612772), so I think if Merrifield keeps going, the coverage will come

Gaslamp Gary

1:27

Manny Machado just looks so good in Padres threads. The clubhouse is happy and gelling. And he has a higher wRC+ than Kris Bryant, Justin Turner, Matt Carpenter and Nolan Arenado. That is all.

Jay Jaffe

1:27

I'm glad he seems happy but nobody can win a 10-year contract in two weeks.

Krusty Krab

1:28

With the drastic change in reliever usage in the last year with more committees, playing of matchups and inning shifting bullpen firemen, do arbitration compensation calculations get adjusted accordingly? now that being the team's closer is not always the job of the team's best reliever.

Jay Jaffe

1:31

The problem is that arbitration calculations haven't really been adjusted. Saves (and to a lesser extent holds) drive salary, not advanced metrics. See Sheryl Ring's work https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-fix-mlbs-salary-arbitration-system-th...

Ben

1:31

It seems increasingly apparent that the biggest labor issues in baseball affect people who are not currently members of the union -- minor leaguers, foreign players, guys yet to be called up who will be on rookie deals or arbitration-eligible in coming years. How does the union ensure it's properly taking the interests of these non-members into account in future labor negotiations? And doesn't this structurally favor the owners, who have a clearer sense of their own interests in these issues?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

That's the $5 billion question (~50% of $10 billion worth of annual revenue), isn't it? It's been very hard to get the union to focus on processes that by definition could lead to its members losing their jobs to "outsiders" (who themselves become union members, of course), and it will probably continue to be that way.

brad nj

1:34

but don't guys who reach MLB by 21 usually do so because they are superstars who race through the minors quickly.... so I think the reason they get to MLB fast is due to talent, not just age.... so that would be hard to separate....

Jay Jaffe

1:38

It's talent AND age. In the draft era, it starts with "Is this 17/18-year-old player good enough to be drafted high enough out of high school that he can be compelled to begin his professional career immediately?" Obviously, if you're a Harper/Trout, the answer is yes, and then you still have to click well enough in the minors to get to the majors as a teen.

Doctor Parrot

1:38

Reason for yesterdays article? You actually buying some Mariners stock?

Jay Jaffe

1:40

When you're writing every day (as I am) and thus always on the prowl for topics, it's the extremes that tend to capture attention. The Dodgers and Mariners' respective hot starts, one expected and the other not, make for a good contrast. I don't necessarily think the Mariners will contend, but the history of teams that start 11-2 is enough for me to believe that I had been too dismissive of that particular team.

Mariners Meese

1:41

re: Slurve
As a Mariners fan, any playoff run becomes believable only after the first pitch is thrown in the playoffs and the Mariners are a part of that game.

Jay Jaffe

1:43

When you own the longest current drought in north american professional team sports, that's understandable, but I still think you've got a ways to go before the streak registers in the minds of fans whose teams have gone without a title for longer than yours has been in existence (such as the Indians, who last won in 1948).

CubFan

1:43

What happens to Bour when Ohtani comes back?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

if he's hitting .154 like he is now, not good things. He has one minor league option remaining, but a DFA seems possible.

Hello

1:44

Thoughts about the Mets using Todd Frazier as their backup SS?

Jay Jaffe

1:48

It sounds like it's basically for emergency situations, but I can't help but think of the old Earl Weaver maxim that the place for your backup shortstop is Rochester (or wherever your Triple-A team is located). You're better off keeping a guy who can fake it on the roster for the short term, and summoning the aforementioned Mr. Hechavarría from Syracuse if the injury bug bites for longer than a few days.

Krusty Krab

1:49

Will ever see a player/manager again in our lifetime ?

Jay Jaffe

1:51

I'm skeptical. The job has changed so much in the 30 years since the last one (Pete Rose) and by definition it turns a peer into management, which can cause friction.

Donjuan

1:52

Better MLB player name: Richard Lovelady, Randy Johnson or Randy Bush?

Jay Jaffe

1:52

they're all great

Eric

1:53

Jacob DeGrom is __% likely to retire as a HoF-worthy player.

Jay Jaffe

1:55

I'd say maybe 25%. Going by bWAR and JAWS, he's got one season of 9+ WAR but only one more season above 5.0. To get to a 7-year peak of 40.0 — a bit better than Sabathia but not as good as Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer/Greinke — means coming up with at least five 5.0-WAR seasons and even that won't be enough to move the needle unless a few of those are MUCH better.

Answer Other People’s Questions

1:55

Please

Jay Jaffe

1:56

i have to admit I almost never look at who's asking the question

If it's a topic where I have somthing to add, i'll take a shot. If not, I move on

Slurve

1:56

At what point do the Orioles jettison Chris Davis?

Jay Jaffe

1:58

I'd bet that if this persists for another few weeks and they can't find a plausible reason to at least DL him and send him on a rehab assignment, things will come to a head.

billsaints

1:58

I felt like crying a bit when Willians Astudillo struck out, it's dope when a sport can make you feel like that

Jay Jaffe

1:58

I just read that he has a younger brother, which should keep FanGraphs busy for awhile.

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat