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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/12/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
11:59
Howdy folks, and welcome to the two-week mark of the 2018 season as well as my usual Thursday Chat, which hasn't been as usual as intended lately. Apologies on that, and let's get to it...
Schoop of Ice Cream
12:00
Hanley predicted he'd go 30/30 preseason and everyone laughed. He's now got 2 HR including the second hardest hit ball of the season, and 3 SB. What's your updated % he hits those numbers
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
He's looked very good at the plate so far, and obviously is putting up the numbers in the early going. But as it always does, with Ramirez it comes down to health and availability. Color me skeptical, particularly on the steals. I'll say he's up to 10% probability now.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:01
How will the addition of bullpen carts affect my favorite part of baseball, when the 'pens halfheartedly jogging out to brawls that will be over by the time they get there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Relievers who won't get their usual jogging in will be more compelled to exert extra effort when joining the scrum. We'll see some Todd Coffey-like sprints, which can only be good for baseball.
Coz
12:02
Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
Editor willing, my pending-publication analysis of Gary Sanchez's early struggles and Wednesday breakout will be accompanied by an ample serving of Sox-Yanks brawl highlights
Alas, I'm not sure who is picking up the baton on the Rockies-Padres donnybrook.
v2micca
12:04
In order to take their legal claim seriously, can we now require Jeter to attempt to speak with a British accent in all future public interviews?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
I learned a good fake British accent (or multiple ones) by watching old episodes of Monty Python's Flying Circus. I can't imagine anyone in baseball less likely to do the same than Jeter.
George Springer
12:06
Did my last year's performance trick alot of people into buying high this year, or can I repeat last year's numbers??
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
Springer set a career high with 34 homers last year, but his wRC+ progression - 129, 133, 125, 140 from 2014-17 — suggests he's been a damn good hitter since he reached the majors. I see no reason why that won't continue.
Josh R
12:09
Don't the Angels have to start letting Ohtani hit in the games he pitches?  Heaven forbid they just play by NL style rules once a week and use pinch hitters once Ohtani is out of the game.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
it certainly seems like it's past time to sit down and have The Talk with Albert Pujols about Where At-Bats Come From, doesn't it? Yes, I'd bat Ohtani on the days he pitches, and use Pujols or somebody else to pinch-hit for him and subsequent pitchers because I do think the difference in performance between Ohtani and Pujols (or any other DH) is significant.
Korey Cluber
12:11
Do you enjoy brawls or do you want to see the league crack down on them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
I'm conflicted. On the one hand, nothing in sports  — not just baseball, which undeniably has some especially stupid aspects to it — turns me off like misguided machismo, and I don't ever want to see anyone get hurt, especially in an extracurricular scrum. On the other hand, most brawls are quite entertaining, and I will confess to regular viewings of the 1998 Yankees-Orioles epic, which I have not only bookmarked on YouTube but saved to my personal computer.
12:15
The brawls themselves don't bother me as much as pitchers intentionally hitting batters. Within the context of these brawls, most punches aren't going to do more than wound somebody's pride. A 90-something mph projectile is a far more dangerous weapon.
Poised
12:16
I've never seen someone so angry on a baseball field than Arenado yesterday
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
George Brett in the Pine Tar incident comes to mind https://www.mlb.com/video/7-24-83-the-pine-tar-incident/c-3180386
v2micca
12:17
Why hasn't the MLB adopted NBA-styled rules that penalize any player that leaves the bench during an on field altercation?  This seems like a very logical rule to curtail bench clearing brawls.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
It does, and yet you may have observed that the interested parties, namely the players' union and the commissioners, do not always abide by what you and I would call logic. Then again, if you got one batter and at most three baserunners and two over-aged base coaches versus nine players on the other side, one of them already wearing armor, that hardly constitutes a fair fight.
Lunar verLander
12:20
Am I the only one who is morbidly interested to see what Ohtani would do if someone on his team charged the mound?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
I'm not sure clips of Mike Trout pulling an opposing player's head clean off is the type of "Face of Baseball" marketing that the game needs.
Matthew
12:21
Do you see anything in Evan Longoria's year-to-date that should concern Giants fans?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Along with Paul Goldschmidt and Gary Sanchez, whom I've written about in the past two days, Longoria is a candidate for a closer look, but I'm probably going to explore a few other ideas before I get to that. What I've seen has been ugly, but I haven't squinted at the small samples yet.
v2micca
12:23
Small Sample Size bold prediction.  The NL East will be competitive this year and produce a wildcard team.
Sloth
12:26
Any correlation between hot starts and WS appearances? Or is the season so long that everything tends to even out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
Given the Mets' start, that seems quite likely. Of the 23 post-1900 teams to start the season 10-1, eight of them made the playoffs including the A's in the 1981 split season. Four of them won pennants and three won World Series, but the last of those was the 1984 Tigers. The current playoff format will help a hot-starting team get to October, but the format of the playoffs makes it nearly impossible to capitalize on an April advantage once there.
Davy
12:28
Aren't you glad for all the new and interesting ways Cheryl Ring has found for us to be enraged by the Marlins?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
It's Sheryl Ring, and yes. She's got no shortage of material when it comes to the Marlins' legal woes, which are at least as entertaining as their on-field product.
Colin
12:30
Who ends up with more HR+SB's on the season Acuna or Albies ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
I think it will be close, but I'll go with Albies, who's already in the majors and ha had time to acclimate and crack four homers (plus one steal).
Seff Jullivan
12:31
Will MLB ever move to a player owned model?  Maybe the PA can match each purchase price as each team comes up for sale. The owners get their money on the sale and the players don't have to deal with any more nonsense.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Not. Gonna. Happen. Do you think any of the 30 owners/ownership groups is going to kill the geese who enjoy an antitrust exemption as they continue to lay golden eggs?
ATL
12:32
Is Buxton trying to hit the ball on the ground more while everyone else is getting it in the air? Or is it just bad contact?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I haven't looked closely, but my God, the man appears constitutionally incapable of producing in April. When I checked yesterday, he had a career 17 wRC+ in March/April.
Larry
12:34
I’m not sure this is the proper place for this, but I can’t find an option on your site for sending an email.  I believe I’ve found a bug in your leaderboard query.  When you run a hitting query that specifies batter handedness, the total for runs and home runs comes up as the same number.  It appears the home run total is repeating in both columns.  This doesn’t happen if the spec is pitcher handedness.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
I've notified the authorities, Larry. Not the kind that will come harass you and ask if this is your homework, but the kind that will investigate your report of a technical glitch on our end. Thanks
Evan
12:35
Why is it only in baseball that we break out words like donnybrook, fracas, and brew-ha-ha (Sp?). Personally, I love it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
Brouhaha. Also melee, ruckus, rumpus, dustup, throwdown, beatdown... it's good to exercise the vocabulary in creative ways even if you don't have an SAT test upcoming.
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