JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/12/18

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Acuña and Torres.

Ben

1:15

Do you think teams reluctance of using starters for the third time through the order is the reason why relievers are seeing a higher percentage of innings and how much do you think this will continue to rise?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

I think it's the other way around: relievers working short stints are able to throw harder than starters, which is part of what creates the advantage they have in the first encounter with hitters. The gap between that and starters' performance the third time through the order has led more teams to go to their bullpens early, hence a higher % of innings.

Asher

1:17

Also re: Gowanus axe throwing, your stache is way more Brooklyn cred than a goatee would be, you know this.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

Perhaps, at least in south Brooklyn (as opposed to Wiliamsburg/Greenpoint, where the goatee per capita rate is considerably higher). However, the additional cost of hiring a babysitter so that Emma and I can both throw axes is a deterrent, especially with an Alamo Draft House five minutes away

Neal Huntington

1:19

Is Gregory Polanco finally making the leap to the potential he has shown

Jay Jaffe

1:21

Small samples and such, but based on the previous expectations for him, his higher flyball rate and dramatic increases in exit velo and xwOBA, I'll go with yes.

Hanley Ramirez

1:22

Looked like everyone on both sides, Red Sox and Yankees, did their best to de-escalate the situation (except for Joe Kelly and Austin of course). Kind of cool to see players step up like that in the heat of the battle and put themselves at risk to get in between everyone

Jay Jaffe

1:24

I can't pull the GIFs right now (again, allow me to tout my forthcoming piece) but I'm not so sure CC Sabathia was de-escalating the situation, and while Aaron Judge may have had peace-making in mind, his headlock did help Austin get a couple shots in at Kelly. But yes, for the most part, it seems like Kelly and Austin were by far the worst offenders.

Mountie Votto

1:24

Is it time to look at Homer Bailey as a twice-through-the-lineup pitcher? He's been lights-out the first two times through, then like clockwork is getting lit up

Jay Jaffe

1:26

If I'm running the Reds, the time to look at Homer Bailey, Expensive Reliever may soon be nigh, but for the moment, with so little at stake, they can afford to start him.

Jack

1:26

Hadn't read your Yadi Molina article, thanks! Good read. Usually with borderline HOF cases I'm the guy who's saying, "Yeah.....but look at the numbers." With Molina I find myself as the guy saying, "Yeah.....but he's SO good!"

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Catcher evaluation is tricky because our efforts to quantify one's effect on a pitching staff, while improved by framing metrics, are still rather rudimentary. I've predicted before that Molina will be one of the most polarizing Hall candidates of the 21st century, taking the baton from Jack Morris and Omar Vizquel.

Justin

1:27

But scale of 1 to 10, how scared would you be to see CC, Stanton and Judge running at you? (Even though they were trying to break it up)

Jay Jaffe

1:28

Matt

1:28

I joined late and am just reading through the start of your chat. I just want to express how much I enjoyed your comment regarding Pujols, and "The Talk" regarding "where at-bats comes from". Well played.

Jay Jaffe

1:28

Just looking for a pitch that I could hit, and I didn't miss it. Thanks.

Play Ball

1:30

Which team isn't going to make the playoffs this year but will have what you would label a successful season?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

I'll go with the Phillies on that one. .500ish with positive steps for their young core.

Razor Ramon

1:31

Hi, Jay. What are your thoughts on Skaggs? He looks good so far, but is he for real? And how would he rank with other mid-tier guys like Faria and Pivetta? Thanks.

Jay Jaffe

1:34

Tyler Skaggs' next 20-start season in the big leagues will be his first; he debuted in 2014. I'm always a bit wary of him because of that track record, but I'm much less familiar with the other guys at this point. Skaggs' swinging strike rate is way up (12.7% vs 8.7% career), which merits a closer look, at the very least.

Scot

1:34

What would it take to get Brandon Nimmo to the Yankees? Is Clint Frazier a over pay?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

The Yankees are well stocked with outfielders, including the returning Aaron Hicks, the still-injured Jacoby Ellsbury, and Frazier, so I don't see there being any chance of such a trade. The two teams generally don't deal with each other (the recent Mazzili Jr. trade notwithstanding)

Call Me Maybin

1:37

How legit is Nick Pivetta?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

it's only 3 starts, but his walk rate way down, groundball rate up, strikeout rate and swinging strike rate both up as well. That seems like a recipe for success if he can sustain it particularly relative to last year's 6+ ERA and 4.87 FIP. Can he sustain it? Hell if I know.

Wilmer Flores

1:39

Have you found that fringe guys who play their whole careers with one team or at least the majority of their careers with one team have a better chance of reaching the hall of fame?

Jay Jaffe

1:40

Fringe guys don't make the Hall of Fame. Regarding time spent with one team vs. bouncing around, the fall of the reserve clause and slow pace of committee elections limits the sample size of whatever there is to study; I've never really taken a look.

Moltar

1:41

So just catching up with that Rays article where they talk about not aligning their behavior with the Yankees/Red Sox, but isn't their real problem that they've done a crap job drafting and developing players over the last decade, while the Yankees and Red Sox have developed a lot of frontline players internally? That doesn't seem like a thing really affected by their market size.

Jay Jaffe

1:43

The Rays' drafting and development has indeed been a problem. How much of that is related to the resources they can put into scouting relative to Yanks/Red Sox is an open question.

Pinstripe Wizard

1:43

On paper, Joe Mauer has a better HOF chance than Molina, but the move to first base has to hurt his chances. Thoughts on Mauer versus Molina in terms of HOF chances?

Jay Jaffe

1:45

Mauer does very well in JAWS, has an MVP award, three batting titles (unprecedented for a catcher) and a slash-stat triple crown (also unprecedented for a catcher). Unless it's Twins fans doing the voting, i thinK he'll be OK.

Babe Lincoln

1:47

What were David Wright's chances of making HOF before his spinal stenosis?

Jay Jaffe

1:50

Dial back to the end of 2013, Wright's age-30 season, at which point he had 47.2 WAR. https://bbref.com/pi/shareit/VWwEv From that point, I certainly think the possibility was in play if he stayed healthy and productive into his late 30s. It's a shame he didn't.

Aussie Ozzie Ozzie

1:50

What would you put Evan Longoria's percentage chance at winding up in the Hall of Fame at? How does the likelihood that he'll actually be voted into the Hall of Fame compare with the likelihood that he ought to be voted in?

Jay Jaffe

1:52

1-in-4 given the way voters have given third basemen short shrift. He's got a long ways to go before he's more worthy than Scott Rolen, IMO, and a lot of 1960s/70s guys to leapfrog (Allen, Boyer, Nettles, Evans, Bando) before he can be considered the best third baseman outside the Hall.

Cold in MN

1:53

Re: Mauer, I've never understood the flack Mauer gets from MN fans. He was never going to be a consistent 25+ HR player. Fans resented his massive contract yet would have cried foul if he had walked for BOS/NY

Jay Jaffe

1:54

Some of this is on Twins' management and the way in general that owners brainwash fans into believing their team's financial resources are far more limited than they are. Spend money around Mauer like a grown-ass baseball team instead of invoking the % of payroll his deal takes up and Twins fans would be far less cranky.

Sean

1:54

As a Diamondbacks fan, I've never really been able to get to a point where we could talk about having our own HoF candidate. I think it's unlikely that Goldy gets there. Do we have much hope within the next decade or so?

Jay Jaffe

1:54

Goldy's HOF case is one thing I didn't get to in yesterday's piece. Expect a look at a future date.

Cha Seung Baek

1:54

Do you think Profar can solidify himself as an everyday player since he has his shot now?

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat