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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/16/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, good people, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. You have no shortage of me on FanGraphs today: 

• I wrote about Carlos Rodón, Craig Kimbrel, and hidden perfect games

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/carlos-rodon-and-craig-kimbrel-attaine...

• I had the honor of serving as the guest host on this week's Chin Music podcast with Kevin Goldstein https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chin-music-episode-9-counting-with-jay...

• I had the honor of chatting with Jason Martinez about Fernando Valenzuela for this week's FanGraphs Audio https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-ross-atkins-feels-fort...

• And speaking of Fernandomania, I'm quoted a couple of times in Jesses Sanchez's great MLB feature — a discussion that inspired my own piece last week https://www.mlb.com/news/featured/remembering-fernandomania-40-years-l...
2:03
and while I'm hyping things up, for those of you with kids and grandparent-grandchild relationships in the picture who might be looking for an appropriate Mother's Day (or Father's Day) gift, here's my mother-in-law Paula Span's collection of New York Times articles on grandparenting, drawn from her own reporting and personal experience with my daughter, aka "Bartola" https://www.audible.com/pd/The-Bubbe-Diaries-Audiobook/B091J7M7FL
CoryMC
2:03
Any Vladdy articles on the site planned for the future? He's looked absolutely fantastic to start the year.

Another Blue Jay question, what the heck happened with Danny Jansen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
New contributor Carmen Ciardiello  debuted with a piece on Vlad Jr. I'll be keeping my eye upon him for a future article as well, but let's see him get a larger sample size under his feet first https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-obvious-vladimir-guerrero-jr-tweak/
2:05
Baseball fan
2:05
Dodgers on pace for 137 wins. Think they get the winningest season of all time?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Kevin asked me for an over-under on the podcast yesterday. I said 108 (call it 108.5 in betting terms). While I think they have the talent to give the 2001 Mariners a run for their money, I'm hesitant to go over that mark because stuff happens, as we saw a few years ago when the Dodgers slipped into that late-season funk.
Sultans of swing
2:07
How rare is it for a veteran position player to perform like Lowrie had done this year, after not having at bats for almost 2 years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
That's a good question. Dan Szymborski is probably the one to answer it given that he has all these guys at his fingertips in the ZiPS database, but I'd imagine this is pretty rare even if we are talking just a couple of weeks.
Bob
2:08
Paddack looked awful again yesterday, even if his line was ok. Time to cut bait?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:10
Cut bait in what context? On your fantasy team? I'm not the one to ask. In the Padres' rotation? Eh, I don't see the rush. He has a 4.15 ERA and 2.98 FIP. Hasn't been working beyond five innings at a clip but he's hardly unpitchable
Sultans of swing
2:13
Does it help the HOF cause of a player to stay with one team for their entire career even if that means less Post Season success than on a different team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Interesting question. Let me try a quick Stathead thing...
2:15
74 position players played at least 1500 games (~15 seasons) with their only team. 38 are in the Hall, 36 aren't, but the only ones above 50 bWAR who aren't are Lou Whitaker, Todd Helton, the still active Joey Votto, the not-yet-eligible Joe Mauer, the obscure Stan Hack, and the not-yet-elgibile Dustin Pedroia.
2:16
That would seem to suggest that sticking with one team helps, but sticking with one team has something to do with the quality of the player to begin with — the willingness to overpay him in his twilight years, especially.
Joe
2:16
If YOU had a chance to put a retired player, that is not in the Hall of Fame, into the Hall of Fame unilaterally, who would it be?  (I know votes, committees, etc., but this is a one-off)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Minnie Miñoso is atop my list as a player with borerline Hall numbers that would probably be over the line had he not been held back at the outset of his career due to the color line and then the informal quota system that followed the fall of the color barrier. Beyond his stellar play, he figures prominently in baseball history as the first Black Latino player.

"Minnie Miñoso is to Latin ballplayers what Jackie Robinson is to black ballplayers" — Orlando Cepeda
Sad, Confused Marlins Fan
2:19
Is it crazy for Pujols to make an approach change and try to help the Angels get to the playoffs? maybe give up some contact and hit the ball in the air more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
it's never too late to give it a shot, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for it to happen.
Dan
2:21
For a site called fanGRAPHS it bugs me that the only graph on the homepage is not a good graph. It has 4 lines on the y axis that are equidistant but not 25/50/75% of the top line. I'm sure is possible to make a graph that encourages signups without being visually misleading.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
If we get enough new memberships, there's hope that we can afford better graphics! I kid, but that's just a cropped part of a larger graph. Seriously, we'd love it if those of you who read our site would purchase a membership so we can continue to find the cool stuff we do and the cool people we employ (myself included) because internet advertising has cratered.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/announcing-the-fangraphs-spring-membership...
And speaking of ways to support FanGraphs, we have some new merchandise, including cool new t-shirts! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-fangraphs-merch-pre-orders-start-today...
aduvall
2:24
Carlos Santana is hitting .199 since the beginning of September in 2019. Any concern he doesn't bounce back to being at least around .225-230?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Batting average is the wrong place to look for Santana's production, but yeah, that ain't great. I've sometimes thought — an impression, rather than a data-driven conclusion — that switch-hitters are prone  to slow starts because they have twice as much work to get in sync for the season. Would be interesting to study.
Ham
2:25
If I dragged an unsuspecting friend down to Lexington for an Atlantic League game later this summer do you think there's any chance they would notice the extra foot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
Only if it's stepping on the friend's toe.
2:27
Seriously, it's a great question. I think i"ll try to find a way out to an Atlantic League game myself, not only to see the new distance but also the electronic umpiring system. I've always wanted to heckle a robot ump
Yaz
2:27
what does everyone think of the new Atlantic league rules?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Dunno how *everyone* feels but here are my thoughts https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-atlantic-league-will-experiment-ag... with more on the Chin Music podcast during the segment with Baseball America's JJ Cooper.
David
2:28
Do we know why the Mets/Rockies game was just postponed?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Trevor
2:28
What are your thoughts on Price so far this year? The first two outings were a bit rocky but he rebounded nicely last night after giving up the back-to-back hits.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
I haven't actually seen any of his appearances during the regular season yet. Velo up a bit from 2019 (0.3-0.7 mph, depending upon the source) mainly due to short stints. The results haven't been there but given the rust I'm not tremendously surprised or concerned yet
Pumpsie Green
2:31
The Cubs had a Mendoza Lineup this week, with every starter batting under the Mendoza line (.215). Yes, it's early, but, yikes! Fortunately, it was against the Brewers, who had 70% of their hitters under the line. Will this year's NL Central be the lowest-scoring division in the history of divisional play? Will the rubber be moved back 5 feet for NLC-only games?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
It's a grim division right now and the Cubs besides Bryant, Kimbrel, Hendricks and a few others, yikes.
Guest
2:32
I didn't follow Fernando, but I enjoyed your piece on him because it evoked my early days as a fan, cutting box scores out of a newspaper while eating breakfast before school. My nephews like baseball, but I am not certain they have ever actually touched a newspaper- it's a visceral part of the fanhood experience they will never be able to share.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
Alas, printed box scores are becoming a thing of the past. My elbows used to get messy with newsprint every morning.
Micah
2:33
Corbin looked awful again...do you see him rebounding to his 2019 form or was 2020 his reality?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
Haven't seen him pitch yet but given that his fastball velo from last year and this year is nearly 2 mph below 2019, I'm a bit more concerned than I'd be otherwise. I wonder if the extra work in the 2019 postseason did a number on him.
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