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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/16/21
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Pumpsie Green
2:36
Do you trust the writers more than the committees to get it right, or the other way around? How about historically - which has done better at identifying HOFers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
The writers. Draw up a list of the most regrettable HOFers and they're mostly from committees, going back to the big boatload of VC entries in 1945-46 to the Frisch/Terry committees of the late 1960s and early '70s.
the big lebrewski
2:38
if DJ Lemahieu plays hits like Derek Jeter until his end of contract but puts up better defensive numbers - does he start to make a case for the hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
Let's say he repeats his 2019 showing (5.5 WAR) this year and through 2026, that's 33 WAR, which gets him to 58 WAR... that's a bit ahead of Jeff Kent (55.5) but well below Chase Utley (64.5). I don't think it gets him there.
Sugarsticky
2:41
On the leaderboards page, filtering by team, the top 15 teams by Def WAR are all NL. That seems statistically impossible. What's up?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
not sure what's going on there but I'll point it out to the folks who can check
glt4dc
2:42
You've been named Commissioner of Baseball (congrats!) with a single mandate - reduce the length of an average baseball game by 25-30 minutes by the end of 2022.  How would you do it - you have full owner, player, network buy-in as long as revenues and player health aren't significantly impacted.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
I'd implement a clock limiting time between pitches and between innings, penalize batters one strike if they leave the box between pitches for more than 3 seconds, and allow for wireless communication technology between pitcher and catcher
pak
2:45
Hi Jay! So, moving the rubber back in the Atlantic League... would lowering the mound like MLB did in ‘69 (I think) be a better alternative? Do you know if that was considered?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
It's a good question and if I hadn't been pushing 2,500 words in my piece I might have written a bit about this. If I'm remembering correctly — and I'll check on this — I think the ASMI was OK with the prospect of lowering the mound, saying it was not an injury risk. I'd imagine it was discussed but lost out to moving the rubber back.
Guest
2:49
Do teams and players like having double headers now since they get to work 23% less by going seven innings?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I think players like it as a contingency under the current conditions, but there's a large swath of relievers whose jobs would be in jeopardy if it were made a regular thing.
David
2:50
I actually like all of those ideas you listed for reducing game time.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I was due.
Fernandomania
2:50
The thing I remember the most about Fernando Valenzuela in the summer of 1981 is trying to figure out how he could look straight up at the bill of his cap during his windup and still get the ball anywhere near where he wanted it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
that skyward gaze at the peak of his delivery was just crazy given the control he shoed.
v2micca
2:51
Whenever someone talks about MLB moving the mound back, I never hear them discuss how it could impact the running game.  Moving it farther away from home moves it closer to 1st and 2nd.  Do they just assume the difference will be notable for pitching, but negligible for holding base-runners?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
You're right, there hasn't been much if any public discussion of this, but it's worth noting that MLB is trying a bunch of things to promote the running game in the affiliated minors this year, some of which could help offset whatever losses are brought about by moving the mound back.
Puster Bosey
2:52
Luis Robert's strikeout rate is below 25%! His PAs are getting better and better visually too-- what do you think the chances are that he outperforms, say, Acuna by fWAR by the end of this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Dude, have you SEEN Acuña? The guy is as hot as anybody right now, carrying a 280 wRC+. To paraphrase Sparky Anderson about Johnny Bench, don't embarrass anyone by comparing them to Ronald Acuña Jr while he's hitting like this.
Zach
2:55
Gavin Lux has seemed to figure out his throwing issue and now is ranked #1 in OAA this year. He had a great spring and great first week but has since slipped into a little bit of a funk. His contact numbers are up so far but his power has been absent for the most part even including spring. Do you still expect him to eventually hit for power? And even if not, assuming his defense is legit, can he still be a star?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
I wonder if the wrist soreness that sidelined Lux last night is linked to his recent slide (1-for-18). The scouting grades on his game power were 60/70 so yes, I still expect him to be at least at the lower end of that. I think he still has the tools to be a star but there's less certainty that he gets there now.
Pumpsie Green
2:57
Casebook II chapter ideas! Chapter 15 - Regrettable Committee Selections. Chapter 16 - Top 10 Writer Whiffs.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I did have a whole chapter on the Veterans Committee's poor selections
3:00
With the caveat that there will always be a sizable contingent that doesn't believe relievers should be enshrined, I think you have to go back to Jim Rice in 2009 to find a BBWAA selection that's on par with even the mid-level bad selections of the VC.
A Redicent fan
3:01
Is Aristides Aquino just a 4A guy or is there some team who could use his bat?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I think he might be more of a change-of-scenery guy than a Quad-A guy. he's gotten 70 PA in 33 games over the past two seasons, which isn't enough to tell us much besides that he's not playing much.
Connor
3:03
What do you think about the White Sox so far? Their Base Runs record is 3 games up on their current record, but all projection systems seem to go against them a bit.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
They've got some good hitters off to slow starts (Abreu, Grandal, Moncada) offset by the Yermin Mercedes show. Their pitching has been very good, Keuchel and Hendriks aside. Still think they're one of the top two teams in the AL Central, though I think they'll have to address the loss of Eloy with something more drastic given Andrew Vaughn's struggles.
He's a Jolly Good Oberkfellow
3:06
Obviously he won't sustain a .650 BABIP, but given his hot start to the year, is it time for folks to appreciate Brandon Nimmo for all the good things he does (OBP) and stop focussing on what he doesn't (play a great CF)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
Entirely dependent upon him staying healthy. He has one season of more than 69 games, which isn't so nice.
True Submariners
3:06
do you think McKinstry will be for real?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Probably more of a Kiké Hernandez than a Chris Taylor is the impression I get, at least on-field.
Pumpsie Green
3:07
Moving the mound back a foot would bring it, what, an inch closer to first? I'd have to get out my protractor to measure it. But if that made a whit of difference, every pitcher would learn to pitch with his heel (or toe, for righties) on the edge of the 1b side of the rubber. They don't, because it does not matter.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
it's a game of inches, and when they're talking about enlarging the bases by 3 inches as an experiment, well...
WinTwins0410
3:08
Jay, I know you're not sold on Tommy John as a HOFer, but could I flip around a question on him?  For a long time, I thought being associated with the eponymous surgery would *help* his HoF case.  Is it possible that it actually *hurts* his case?  IE, if there never had been Tommy John surgery and TJ had the same career that he had (I know there's a missing year in the middle due to the surgery, but work with me here!), would he have gotten more support, the same support or less support at the BBWAA and committee levels, do you think?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
I'd never thought of it that way, but I'm skeptical it's harming him. Anybody who's read the history of the surgery knows that he was facing a great unknown by being the first, and that he worked his damn ass off to get back. I can't see where that would hurt his cause.
david
3:09
During hall of fame season you mentioned you were working on something to take into account how modern SP workloads have changed. Any update on that? i am looking forward to it
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
it was something I've been ploinking around with but i didn't get it to the point where I was ready to show it to a few people I trust so as to get some feedback.
3:10
the run-up to baseball season can take away time from those winter projects, but it's still something I anticipate sharing at some point well before HOF SZN
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