JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/16/24

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Phil

2:59

You are very right about the downside of Prospect Fever. When I was in my teens or early twenties, I remember being disappointed in a few guys (Darren Bragg, Arquimedes Pozo) who had gotten publicity because they'd been acquired in significant trades. But guys who just worked their way through the minors were blank slates from a fan's perspective, and it made it more exciting when somebody took off, and more normal if it took them a couple years to do so. I will never forget seeing Mo Vaughn in his first season, seeing the ball come off his bat and realizing, oh, this is the real thing. I know it's weird on an analytics site to say I want to know less information, but I do think there's a happy medium when it comes specifically to long-term projection of 19-year-old kids.

Jay Jaffe

3:00

I think at least some of the impatience comes with people wanting to get an edge in their fantasy leagues or dynasty leagues or whatever. In fantasy if a guy can't help you today he's not much good and you might as well find someone who can rather than wearing a rough rookie season.

the guy who asks the questions

3:00

How real is the Yankees pitching? It looks worse when you go from ERA to FIP to xFIP

Jay Jaffe

3:05

A 2.93 ERA with a 4.00 FIP is pretty damn good considering they're without Cole. I think Cortes is their biggest concern among their starters, as three of his four outings — all but the one against the weak-ass Marlins — have been pretty crummy. The other thing I'd worry about is that the bullpen isn't striking many guys out; in fact, their 17.5% K rate is second-to-last in the majors, and their FIP is nearly twice their ERA (4.69 to 2.38). I expect a lot of regression there.

Mets

3:05

All 16 games they’ve played this season have come against team with a .500 or better record (maybe partly because they’ve played the Mets) and they’re hanging in there without Senga, JD & a struggling Lindor. Are they better than what we think/thought?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

We forecast them for 80.8 wins and 81.2 losses. So far they're 8-8. Yes, they've done it without Senga and Martinez, and with Lindor not hitting, but are you expecting a 161 wRC+ out of D.J. Stewart and 115-120 from Baty, Taylor, and Marte? I think they'll continue to be a .500ish team

War2D2

3:09

Trout is mashing like Trout of yore. What injury do you think will waylay him this time? My bet is on losing a toe to a freak glazing accident.

Jay Jaffe

3:09

let's just say that I want him to stay away from all bungee-related activity

O’s Fan

3:09

What do you think the Orioles should do with Santander? Deadline trade, extension, qualifying offer, or let him walk after the season? He’s off to a slow start but I would expect him to be around his career norms when all is said and done,

Jay Jaffe

3:12

Looking at the roster and the surplus of young talent coming through, I've suspected that Santander could be a July trade chip, particularly if Cowser or Kjerstad force the issue.

Reid Detmers

3:13

Am I legit or is it too small of a sample size?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

it's a small sample with 2 of his 3 start against the same team (Red Sox) but those spikes in his fastball and changeup whiff rates bear watching. Both are getting different movement than in the past, so I wonder if something has changed mechanically. Keep an eye out.

WinTwins0410

3:15

Jay, congratulate me. I was just named the Hall of Fame's CEO. In addition to me making the Casebook *finally* available in the bookstore/gift shop, I'll make another big decision to overhaul the Eras Committees. See what you think about this. Whereas now we have on a three-year rotating basis: 1) pre-1980 players and non-players including Negro Leagues players; 2) post-1980 players; and 3) post-1980 managers/executives/umpires; I'll change it to the following: A two-year cycle in which Year 1 consists of one ballot for pre-1980 players and one separate ballot for Negro Leagues players and Year 2 consists of one ballot for post-1980 players and one separate ballot for all non-players. Do you see that as an improvement? (I do.) Or, should the Eras Committees return to evaluating Eras Committee players from more than just two time periods? And should the Committees review players from the longer-ago periods a bit more often? (to prevent the Dick Allen/Ron Santo risk of dying before induction)

Jay Jaffe

3:15

Congratulations! I like your plan and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

3:17

I think having the Negro Leagues (and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball) candidates considered on one track is essential to whatever replaces the current system.

3:18

I'm fine with considering older eras less frequently but it's a difficult balance. Considering Bill Dahlen and Lefty O'Doul once every 10 years made sense because they were dead, but once every five years for guys in their 80s and 90s just bad luck.

Edward

3:19

Any "concern" with Judge?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

A bit, yeah. He's not hitting the ball as hard as usual, though he's short of his .241 xBA and .467 xSLG. he's also not striking out as much or even swinging as much, so I do wonder about that oblique issue he battled in March. If it's hurting him to swing, they have a problem.

kingmitch

3:21

What are mookie betts weaknesses? if any?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

It sometimes takes him two bounds to leap over tall buildings, and I'm told he has a tendency to underseason his pasta sauces just a bit.

John

3:24

If Mookie Betts retires right now, is he a Hall of Famer? I say yes, and consequently submit that McCutchen should be, too, even if his peak isn’t quite as high

Jay Jaffe

3:27

Huh? Betts is 31, has been playing at an all-Star Level since he was 22 and has 66.6 bWAR, some of which comes from being 156 runs above average in the field. Cutch is 37, hasn't played like an All-Star since he was 28, and has 48.6 bWAR, in part because he's 77 runs below average in the field. They're not close.

Head of the Breakfast Nook

3:27

If you give up 11 hits in 0.2 innings, the odds you are tipping some of your pitches must be fairly high. Right, Hunter Brown?

Jay Jaffe

3:28

Seems pretty likely to me, especially that he got just one swing and miss out of 40 pitches. Teams tend to be pretty cagey when it comes to acknowledging whether a guy is tipping, mainly because it only invites more scrutiny of a pitcher's every move, so we may not always get the truth.

birds

3:29

Writers tend to give franchise icons bonus points when it comes to HOF voting (presumably they feel more famous/important to the sport when they're so important to a team). Do you have an easier time voting for guys like that? Like, is Larry Walker an easier choice than Gary Sheffield? Is there anyone borderline you think is tipped over the line by franchise-hero status?

Jay Jaffe

3:32

I don't think Walker was a particularly easy choice in that regard as he actually split the heart of his career between the Expos and Rockies. I do think it's harder for a guy like Sheffield to get elected because he bounced around so much, sometimes because he agitated his way out of town.

To the extent that being a franchise icon has weighed into my voting I'd say it's a pretty small bonus that comes from being part of a run of sustained success. I've only gotten to fill out four ballots and the ones who come to mind in this are Ortiz with the Red Sox (he's pretty low in JAWS) and Utley with the Phillies. "Icon" is a bit of a strong word but I did throw Pettitte a vote this past year in part due to his role in the Yankees' dynasty.

Zach

3:33

How long do the Dodgers give Lux to figure it out? He looked fine in spring but he doesn't look close offensively at the moment. I guess his surprisingly elite defense at second might buy him more time. At some point, they have to see if Trey Sweeney, or maybe a Vargas move back to second, would be better for the team, right?

Jay Jaffe

3:34

as I just found out about the move at the start o this chat I haven't read anything about the rationale but it may be that the Pages move puts a squeeze on Lux by bumping Taylor and/or Kiké to more infield work while Lux sits. But I think he's still got some runway to figure it out.

Danny

3:35

I always read your responses in Nick Offerman's voice. Not sure how that happened, but I thought you should know.

Jay Jaffe

3:35

I'll take it! (scowl while eating a big plate of bacon)

Doc

3:35

Doc Gooden has been in the news recently? With his short, but historic, peak and traditional bold face achievements (ROY, Cy, No-Hitter, 3 Rings), where would you rank him among the gut of post-Seaver/Palmer/Carlton/Sutton/Niekro types outside the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

3:40

I was glad to see Gooden's number retired by the Mets. I think it's forgotten how good a career he had given the high-profile problems he had. I have him 87th in S-JAWS, which is below a bunch of guys I've endorsed (Cone, Saberhagen, Stieb, Santana, Hamels, Hershiser) and some I'm more lukewarm about (Pettitte, even given the aforementioned vote), Buehrle, Hudson. He's above Oswalt and Félix. None of them had a season like Gooden's 1985, though. Holy hell was that something.

Theeeeeeeee Yankees Win

3:40

The thoughts of anyone but John Sterling calling Yankees games seems sacrilegious. I'm in my mid-20s, so he's all I've ever known! In reading about his career, I noticed he's never been nominated for the Ford C. Frick Award. What would it take for John to be honored by the Hall? 35 years calling games and being the voice of the last dynastic run this sport has seen have to be worth consideration!

Jay Jaffe

3:45

I'm surprised Sterling has never been nominated but stylistically, he's not everybody's cup of tea, and beyond the national voices, you've got a lot of competition for recognition because there are a lot of broadcasters who were iconic within their regional markets.

I can't say that Sterling was my favorite announcer, but I grew fonder of him as the years passed, and particularly always appreciated tuning into a Yankees game with him and Suzyn as we hit traffic on the way back to NYC from our annual Cape Cod trips. Like the rest of this drive is gonna be a goddamn slog but we've at least got a ballgame to distract us.

Sterling is attached to a whole lot of mostly-positive memories. He's beloved within the industry and particularly within the Yankees organization, and I wish him all the best in his retirement.

Jordan Montgomery

3:46

Much like pitchers appearing to value maxing out on their velocity and stuff, are teams doing the same? Why did it seem no one valued Jordan Montgomery's ability to offer 175+ good, if not great, innings?

Jay Jaffe

3:47

I don't think it was that nobody valued it, it was that they didn't value it at the price Boras was asking, and particularly when he was asking for it, after teams were pretty locked into their budgets. That he fired Boras as his agent and will likely go through all of this again next year is pretty telling.

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:47

Re: Pages - CT3 has looked dreadful and Kiké hasn't looked much better. Obligatory "it's april" but maybe the beginning of the end for LA's two super-Util guys?

Jay Jaffe

3:48

Certainly not out of the question. Taylor has been dancing along the edge of a cliff since 2022

Arjay

3:50

Jack Leiter seems to have gotten his walks under control and is still a K machine. Is this the Rangers not wanting to waste any bullets before he gets hurt?

Jay Jaffe

3:52

I think it's as much about the disarray within their rotation, with Bradford hitting the IL, Heaney struggling, and the returns of deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle being several months away. Leiter only threw 85 innings last year so he's probably not going to be heavily used overall; his innings right now could be very valuable to the team.

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