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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/19

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billsaints

1:03

If you ran the Astros what would you do with Myles Straw? He seems to be wasting away his best speedy years in AAA which seems a little harsh on the guy as speed is often the first skill to go. A guy who can play CF and (soon) SS would be valuable to someone.

Jay Jaffe

1:05

I don't know much about him other than that they're trying him at SS in AAA (see Longehagen here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-4-9-2019/). The Astros have OF depth, but if he can play the infield as well, maybe he's their next attempt at a Marwin Gonzalez type?

LenFuego

1:05

What is the deal with Jose Ramirez? How does a guy go from a year and a half of MVP-level production to subMendoza-level production seemingly in the blink of an eye (around the first week in August last year)? Does he need to see an eye doctor or something?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

Slow starts happen for any one of a number of reasons. Mookie Betts has a 79 wRC+ himself, though that's not _an 11 wRC+_ which is what Ramirez is carrying. Devan Fink suggested his woes may have something to do with trying to beat the shift (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jose-ramirez-is-in-a-quarter-season-long-s...) and noted that he's been in deep slumps before. Give that a look.

GERB

1:08

If you suddenly had the hitting ability of Mike Trout, but in the field you were still Jay Jaffe, would you be able to do well enough to find a starting job somewhere in the NL?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

If I could hit like Mike Trout I'm sure an NL team would give me every chance in the world to find a defensive home, and for a hell of a lot less than a $430 million commitment. Figure I'm worth about 6-7 wins with the bat and -3 wins with the glove at an easy position, and that's still an above-average player.

Remember, higher strikeout rates mean fewer balls in play, which means less selective pressure on defensive skill. The conditions have never been better for a Trout-Jaffe to thrive in the NL.

Ghost of Walter Alston

1:12

Is Cody Bellinger a hot start I can believe in?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I mean, he ain't gonna slug .925, but he certainly looks better than last year. Build on a full season worth of 2017 performance plus age-related improvement and you've got a guy who could wind up in MVP discussions.

CubFan

1:14

How much staying power does German have in the Yanks rotation? Does it come down to if he can keep his walks down?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

He's had a few absolutely stellar starts over the past two seasons, and I think the general consensus is that the stuff is there. Command can be an issue, but he's bought himself some time to stick around the rotation, particularly with Severino out for awhile.

Jkim

1:18

Bellinger MVP? Crazy that he has cut his K% to half. Idk if this will necessarily continue but looks like he's definitely changed his approach a bit at the plate

Jay Jaffe

1:19

He went back to the stance along the lines of he was using in 2017, armed with the knowledge that he'd gained over the past two seasons of where MLB pitchers found the holes in his swing. It's something to behold right now. I'm very impressed.

Matt

1:21

Sale's velocity was fine in his last game. 96.06mph on his four-seamer

Jay Jaffe

1:23

Again, it's command as much as velo, but fwiw, the Yankees didn't have a single swing and miss at one of his 20 fastballs 95 or higher. 3 balls put into play, EVs of 100+ each, all hits. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR...

Readerguy

1:23

Just wanted to say that your glossary of terms and explanations in the beginning of the Cooperstown Casebook was incredibly helpful and enjoyable to read. You made it easy to relate to a casual fan who wants to know more, so thank you!

Jay Jaffe

1:25

Thank you! Years of doing Baseball Prospectus books that had similar chapters to introduce the concepts came in handy, and I spent a whole lot of time polishing that part of the manuscript — it was even part of the initial proposal — before moving on to the individual chapters. I'm glad readers found it useful.

Something

1:25

Isn't the issue with 20 game suspensions for pitchers that it is 1/8th of their salary for the year? Feel like the Union would be extremely up in arms about that

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Yes, it's an issue. It's a sign that the players and the commissioner are actually ok with the bullshit state of affairs that we've got now, "Let the Kids Play" to the contrary.

Jeff

1:27

Speaking of Zobrist, and how the Cubs apparently have "money problems"...does Theo Epstein realize that if he'd pawned off Zobrist this winter (as rumored he could have), non tendered his spouse abusing SS and maybe not signed Daniel Descalso...he could have Craig Kimbrel right now? And if he'd just let Hamels walk, maybe Harper?

Jay Jaffe

1:28

The guy to ask about "money problems" has the last name Ricketts, but yes, the Cubs certainly could have approached their roster much differently this winter.

1:31

I don't believe for a second that the Cubs couldn't have simply let Hamels walk and sign Harper and Kimbrel. They would have paid the tax this year, albeit as first-time offenders. MIght have required a few hard choices next winter to avoid repeating that, but winning solves a lot of ills.

Blake Swihart

1:32

Where do I go from here?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Probably not to the Cubs as a key piece in a Cole Hamels trade.

1:33

Do you see Brad Miller finding a home? The Red Sox need a 2bman and Miller is also around for when Moreland eventually gets hurt.

Jay Jaffe

1:34

Coming off back-to-back WARs of 0.0, he's not exactly somebody I'd tear up my roster to accommodate, but the Red Sox have been such a black hole at 2B that he makes some sense there.

Elvis Andrus

1:35

Should I opt out?

Jay Jaffe

1:37

You'd need to do better than 3/$43 M (what remains on the deal) which at 31 years old will be a lot more easily obtainable if you hit for a 178 wRC+ (as you are now) than last year's 78.

I think Andrus probably does a Kershaw/Sabathia-like soft opt out, parlaying his leverage into an extension with his current team.

1:37

How is the banh mi?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

Tasty as always. I go for the grilled chicken (thigh), spicy with jalapeños.

I miss Nicky's Vietnamese, which I could get in here in Brooklyn as well as the East Village — it was my regular meal for my BP chats going back to, like, 2005 — but Hanco's, which is the place I order from here, is dependably solid.

Bat

1:39

Jay, do you really think Sabathia is a HOFer? I don’t see it even though I agree voters need to change from this 300 / 3000K win-type mentality.

Jay Jaffe

1:41

A topic I'll address for a round-up piece tomorrow at ESPN+ and that I'll surely visit in more detail when Sabathia hits one of his two upcoming milestones (250 W or 3,000 K). Short answer: his traditional credentials are stronger than his advanced-stat ones (e.g., JAWS) but the dearth of credible upcoming candidates, and the esteem with which he's held within the game, gives him a decent shot.

Richie

1:41

How do you know there's NOT something wrong with the Playoff Graph? No, playoff odds should not go down 7% after a win. Myself I don't care at all, but sure looks like something indeed is wrong in there.

Jay Jaffe

1:42

I don't know for sure. My point is that I don't worry about it. If you're worried about it, reach out to David Appelman or Sean Dolinar.

Alby

1:42

What's your opinion of the Hall of Fame as a museum -- not who's in vs. who's out, just as a museum-going experience?

Jay Jaffe

1:44

Undervalued. As I wrote in the book, there's so much more to the Hall than the endless arguments over who should be elected. The depth of the artifact collection is incredible, though there are spots where the presentation could use a bit of modernization. And the library is a remarkable resource for research.

1:45

Can we talk about Miguel Cabrera? So far in 2019 his Hard Hit % is at a career high at 51% and Soft Hit % at a near career low. His GB % is scary high, but since he's whacking the crap out of the ball, do you think FB% starts to increase and we see a little pop? I'm not asking for the greatness of yore, give my 2014's line!

Jay Jaffe

1:47

I'm not sure what the soft/hard criteria are for our site; I go by Statcast's definition and numbers, where he has a 69th percentile hard-hit rate (95 mph or higher). The problem, as you note, is his astronomical GB% (53.3%). I suspect there's something mechanical going on that he needs to correct, but I do wonder if his legs are an issue.

joe

1:48

I like the + leaderboard, one comment is that the K+ for batters seems backwards a number above 100 is usually a good thing, here a number below 100 is a good thing. not horrible, but just for consistency it would be nice to see bigger being better.

Jay Jaffe

1:48

We'll take a look at that, thanks.

Matt

1:48

There was a debate on the EW Facebook group: What will happen to the 2B class for the HOF? Utley seems like a benchmark. Cano has a PED blemish. Given his rings, If they can roll Pedoria out in a wheelchair for a few years, he is an interesting case. Even Kinsler seems like a borderline guy

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