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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/21/20

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Matt A

3:09

If baseball gets cancelled for the year, what is the likelihood of taking a few of the best players from each team and making a mini-all star tournament, similar to the world baseball classic, as a September/October compromise? Seems like it would be a fun idea

Jay Jaffe

3:09

in the abstract it seems like a nice idea, but I'm sure there are reasons it won't happen.

Chamaco

3:10

MiLB contraction - any idea why MiLB is caving now? Total bummer

Jay Jaffe

3:11

I'm sure that there was some degree of posturing initially, but also that enough teams are in precarious enough financial shape that this outage — which has the potential to wipe out the entire minor league season — is killing off some of the teams that would have been contracted anyway

Travis

3:11

There’s been historical picking over of most eligible veterans, and some positions are underrepresented in the HoF (C, 3b, etc) BUT not counting most recent expansion (Marlins, Rockies, et al) what Teams are most underrepresented in the Hall? Not sure if that’s answerable in chat form

Jay Jaffe

3:11

a good research project. I've actually got an idea that's *sort of* along these lines but it's only in the planning stages

Alex

3:11

Whether he ultimately needs the nudge or not, is Greinke good enough with the glove and bat to materially improve his HOF case?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

he can't do much with the bat as an Astro, but Greinke has produced 5.1 bWAR via offense, and that counts towards his JAWS. his fielding is already baked into his run prevention numbers, but the perception of it certainly underscores his athleticism. He's closing in on the JAWS standard (59.6 vs 61.6) and should get to 3,000 strikeouts, but I'd vote for him today if he never threw another pitch.

olethros

3:15

I realize he's a little light in the WAR/JAWS department, but Mark Buehrle is a lot closer than most people think to Hall-worthy, and I'd personally vote for him. He's got a lot of individual and team accomplishments that don't show up in the metrics that for me tip the scales in his favor.

Jay Jaffe

3:16

You're free to believe that, and on some level I don't disagree; the championship and the no-hitter/perfect game combo are feathers in his cap. But from a WAR/JAWS/run prevention standpoint, I just don't see him as having a good case. See

I think Buehrle had a very good career but I don’t see him as HOFworthy. 89th in JAWS, well below the standard, and while he has some interesting hooks (perfecto, no-hitter, 2005 championship), they’re not unique in the context of HOF arguments

@jay_jaffe can you please share your thoughts on this? southsideshowdown.com/2020/03/05/chi…

Adam

3:16

Regarding impact of missed time, I feel like missing a year because you went to war in the 40's/50's is different than missing a year while chilling in your sunbelt mansion ...

Jay Jaffe

3:20

well, in either case— as well as with regards to player strikes — it's not as though you can pinpoint individual players having control over the circumstances. Staying at home during a pandemic may not be as heroic as serving one's country at war, but anyone doing so is doing his/her part in the time of a crisis, and a whole lot of those athletes who aren't playing have stepped up to offer support in some way or another.

Kevin

3:21

What are the odds that a somewhat older pitcher like Chris Sale can come back from TJ and be reasonably successful?

Jay Jaffe

3:24

It's not an automatic, and I don't recall any recent age-based studies, but John Smoltz, the first TJ'd pitcher to reach the Hall of Fame, comes to mind. That said, he spent a good chunk of time relieving after undergoing surgery at age 34, and relievers such as Billy Wagner and Joe Nathan number among the more successful old-TJ guys.

Dave

3:25

I've heard you talk about a potential "modern pioneer" category for the HOF, which would pave the way for someone like a Bill James or a Curt Flood to get in. What would have to occur to allow for this to happen? Is it possible under the current system?

Jay Jaffe

3:27

It would take a decision by the Hall of Fame board of directors and some cooperation with the screening committees that make up the ballots so as to highlight such individuals for consideration. It would probably have to be driven by the desire to honor a given individual, but from among that group on the board, I don't think a James or a Flood or a Dr. Frank Jobe has enough to overcome the inertia.

Jerry

3:27

Do you think elite players under 2000 hits now have a chance to be voted into the hall via younger and more stat heavy voters? Because Buster Posey and Chase Utley may end up without 2000 hits, and I wonder whether they can fare better than Jim Edomonds' or Bobby Grich's time on the HOF ballot.

Jay Jaffe

3:30

I'm hopeful, but we're 3 1/2 years away from Utley hitting the ballot and currently watching Andruw Jones getting meager support (19.4% in year three, a big jump up from the single digits but still far from election). I think the stigma against <2000 could be lifted if Dick Allen or Minnie Miñoso (or preferably both) are elected on the Golden Days ballot this winter.

pitch_out

3:31

If, through some type of cosmic contract obligation, you were forced to sit down for a one on one interview over lunch for one whole hour with either Curt Schilling or Aubrey Huff, which do you choose?

Jay Jaffe

3:31

I'd board a rocket into the sun rather than spend 30 seconds with either.

Adam

3:31

Not trying to cast aspersions - just saying that past history of missed seasons is probably useless. Guys have home gyms, nutritional advantages, ect.

Jay Jaffe

3:32

That's a fair observation, for sure. But the longer this outage goes, I suspect that it's still harder to maintain focus.

Dr. Doom

3:33

I really want to teach my four-year-old a little bit about baseball. Given that the last two years of all MLB games are free, is there a game that jumps to mind that would be cool for a kid's first? I was thinking maybe something with a walkoff, at least one home run, or something high-scoring that might keep his attention (maybe not the whole game, but I'm not opposed to only showing the last 2-3 innings). I'd love you thoughts. And thanks for continuing to write and do these chats!

Jay Jaffe

3:34

I'd have to think about this one for awhile. the Bryce Harper grand slam walk-off comes to mind, I don't know a kid that wouldn't get excited about seeing that if s/he had some inkling of what was going on. Others feel free to offer ideas in the comments once this chat ends.

Sean Huff-Scheidel

3:35

Another HoF question for you. Not yet eligible or "character clause" guys aside Reuschel has to be the biggest pitcher snub. Who's next though Saberhagen?

Jay Jaffe

3:39

Kevin Brown is 0.1 below Reuschel in the JAWS rankings and had the higher peak by about a win and a half, plus far better run prevention (127 ERA+ to 114), and more big postseason moments. They're both a bit below the HOF standard but I'd call him the bigger snub, and I'd put Luis Tiant ahead of Reuschel too due to his cultural impact.

3:40

Hey Jay thanks for chatting, I'd like your take on the Phils, it seems you can argue both ways how good they are. Girardi at the helm, Didi now at SS, Wheeler now in the rotation. You got Harper, Hoskins, and Realmulto leading the offense, with Cutch, Didi, Segura, and Kingery penciled in every day, and you can probably add Jay Bruce to that list. Behind Nola and Wheeler you got Arrieta, Eflin, & Velasquez. Neris closing. Are you impressed with this? How do you view the Phils going into 2020 if there is a season?

Jay Jaffe

3:42

They're a team with some legitimate strengths and some question marks, most notably center field, third base, and rotation spots 3-5. They project to place fourth in a tough division, right around .500, which tells me that they need some of those question marks to turn into exclamation points, while hoping that enough goes wrong in either Washington, Atlanta, or Queens to make headway in the division.

Guest

3:43

I know JAWS is based on bWAR, but do you consult fWAR or WARP much when noodling over HOF stuff?

Jay Jaffe

3:43

Yes. Particularly for catchers I want to look at what BP's metrics say, and I do want to note where there are discrepancies in fielding metrics.

pirates hurdles

3:44

I rarely see McCutchen on lists of current players with a shot at the Hall, but he has 50 WAR in the bank and time to get up in the 60s given his last couple of years level. Face of a franchise and lots of media cred. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

3:47

he's 30th in JAWS among center fielders ( 44.8/38.4/41.6), nowhere near any standards yet, and has netted 7.1 WAR over the past five seasons. He's still got time to post some bounceback years in his 30s (he's 33), but he'll have to be unusually productive at that age to have a fighting chance, particularly at a position where there are already players whom some consider to be snubs (Lofton, Andruw, Edmonds), and looming HOFers Beltran and Trout.

3:48

Ok folks, I'm out of time today. Thanks so much for stopping by! Hopefully I'll get back to my usual Monday slot next week but stand by in case things change.

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