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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/22/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks!
After spending most of the past 24 hours in bed with a low-grade fever and stomach bug, I have returned to the land of the living
12:02
Before I went under, I wrote about the weirdness of Sunday's Yankees game, with the official scoring change regarding Max Fried's no-hit bid and the umps appearing to mess up a call on a potential Aaron Judge home run https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-no-hit-bid-and-home-run-that-wasnt/
Phil
12:03
There's been a lot of justified caution tempering expectations about Trevor Story. Can we finally start to feel like, yes, the Red Sox have their shortstop at long last?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
He's off to a great start, and it's certainly nice to see. I don't expect him to stay this hot but I think he can be a force in that lineup if he stays healthy. The thing is, health is a skill, and he's had a hard time staying available. Fingers crossed he can do so
Idiotic Failson
12:05
Is Semien cooked? He's been awful.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
Good question. He's not hitting the ball appreciably worse than last year. I think he might be worth a closer look in an article. I'm curious as to what's going on as well
not the lunch guy
12:07
Alcantara for Alcantara. Who says no/what else needs to be in the deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
Every time I see the name Alcantara I think of the jerkass Red Sox prospect who kicked a catcher in the head back in 2001. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1527188431481572
12:09
Sandy A. has been pretty bad so far since coming back from TJ surgery, high walk rate, low chase. I'm not sure I'd give up much for him right now.
Weird1@Portland
12:10
Will Bellinger be a 20-20 man with a .250 BA?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
he's only stolen 20 bases once, so I'd bet against that. He's off to a rough start with the Yankees, hitting the ball harder but strikeout rate way up. Not sure yet what's going on there
Jazzy Jaffe
12:12
If you started on 1B, and Chandler Simpson started at home, do you think you could win a foot race to 2B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
I think I could do that, if I was warmed up, but I'd need a week of icing my hamstrings and quads
12:14
Speaking of which, obliquely, I got around to streaming Eephus the other night. Offbeat, entertaining and meandering movie about baseball and the passage of time. Some great performances including Bill Lee coming out of the woods to throw an inning
yesterday when I was sick I kept thinking of the sore-kneed catcher moaning, "I need to be put down."
Bobby
12:15
Obviously it's still very early in Elly De La Cruz's career. But at what point would it be valid to really begin wondering if he'll ever be an elite hitter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
it's valid. he's gotta cut down on the swing-and-miss. he hits the ball hard enough and is as entertaining as any player in the game, but that  33% strikeout rate makes it hard to put up big numbers
I'd pay money to watch him leg out a triple though
Tacoby Bellsbury
12:16
Have you read any of Laurila's interview lookbacks at old scouting reports? If so, what have some of your takeaways been?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
I've read a few. Great series. Enjoyed today's Max Scherzer one a lot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-addresses-his-2008-baseball-a...
12:18
The Cody Bellinger one I liked a lot as well. It's very interesting to see these guys addressing assessments of their strengths and weaknesses, knowing that they panned out where so many others of similar skill may not have done so.
Rick
12:18
Given it's so early in the season, what are key indicators that you look at in terms of determining how hitter are performing, we dont usually have solid sample sizes until a couple of months into the season but how can we identify hot bats or guys firing up?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
The first things I look at, especially for players who are struggling, are swing and chase rates — if they're out of whack with a guy's track record, he may be pressing. then I look at the statcast numbers, especially once we get to 60 BBE, where they start to stabilize — are his actual numbers in line with his expected ones?
Johnny5Alive
12:22
so far, mets seem to have made the right call re: alonso, but is he pricing himself out of another contract with them? how much has this start helped his next contract?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
he's off to a great start but it's early. I'm very intrigued by his huge drop in K% and his spike in exit velocity, but I want to see the extent to which those hold up when he's no longer slugging .695.
12:25
As for whether he's pricing himself out of the Mets, I think if he has a big season, it's gonna be very tough for Uncle Stevie not to open his checkbook — this is a fan favorite  and a team very much in win-now mode
Yolmer Sanchez
12:26
The Whitesox may have lost Martin Perez for the majority of the season. Who in the world can they use to eat innings? Will they throw another youngster into the fire to see what they've got? Or do they go ahead and pick someone up like Triston McKenzie (despite the yips)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
Probably time to begin the thawing of Early Wynn
12:27
that's a bummer about Perez, I didn't see that he was so quickly moved to the 60-day IL. Never a good sign.

the White Sox have little to lose by trying to see if they can fix McKenzie but I don't know that they have any extra insight when it comes to dealing with a player going through what he's going through. But they're in a position where they absolutely need to add talent to their system by any means they can so it can't hurt to take a shot
Tim
12:29
Is it fair to wonder if Aaron Nola is hurt? BABIP and LOB suggest he’s been unlucky, Velo and Stuff+ say he’s not as good as last year (at least).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I believe that Davy Andrews, the newest addition to our full-time roster, is working on a piece about Nola. I'm seeing the same things you are — the velo and stuff are down. he's still getting similar chase and swing-and-miss rates so maybe it's just a mechanical rut and not an injury but.. he's got a lotta mileage on him
12:34
Lunch has arrived. I had only about 12 ounces of Lipton chicken noodle soup and half a bagel yesterday so I'm ravenously hungry
12:35
bold move to get back on the horse with a burrito but I think it's a good sign I'm that ambitious
Gene Lamont
12:40
Clay Holmes has been relatively solid thus far, obviously not as solid as Seth Lugo was to start last year. Do you think Holmes will have Lugo-like success as the year goes on or do you think he’ll just stay at the level he’s currently at?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
We're still pretty early in the Holmes-as-starter experiment but I like what I'm seeing. Both the four-seamer and changeup have been effective additions to his arsenal
i don't know that he can be as good as Lugo has become but I'm not ruling it out
buffy, the umpire slayer
12:44
We are about 30 days into the season. In selecting replacement players, how much weight should ROS projections be compared to what a player has actually produced in those 30 days. Joc Pederson and Ben Rice are examples (both ways) of players where the eye test seems to override the numerical projections.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
projections are important because they reflect a guy's track record while incorporating age-based changes, but as we've seen over and over, player development has become more malleable as players do things like overhaul their swings or engineer pitches to add to their arsenals. Rice has added a ton of bat speed and is hitting the ball much harder so I think we need to mentally adjust our expectations.

I'm not sure what is going on with Joc. I expect he'll snap ou of it but I wonder if he's fully healthy.
Jordan
12:52
What can the Pirates do to salvage the 2024-26 seasons?
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