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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/22/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
Sell the team
12:55
Nothing is ever going to change for the Pirates so long as Bob Nutting is the owner. We're 18 years into this, and outside of a brief flash of success when the stars aligned from 2013–15, it's been the same old story. They just don't add enough talent to that organization because they don't spend.
Mr. Burrito
12:55
I'm not whining, I swear. I get that any Dodgers problems, this year, are first-world issues. But I'm getting worried about Muncy and Pages increasingly looks like a 4th outfielder. Do they need another bat? And, if so, should it be Luis Robert Jr.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
I've been a little skeptical about Pages given his contact issues, and boy howdy have those resurfaced. He may very well be a 4th outfielder.Not sure yet what's going on with Muncy but we've seen him go through funks before and he always seems to find his way out. Maybe the other Max Muncy is stealing his mojo.

Robert has been so bad for the past year-plus, I wouldn't touch him with a 40-foot pole
Big Jim
1:00
Jay - thanks for taking the time today and glad you're feeling better (pre-burrito).
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
thanks, it's good to be back in the land of the upright
Big Jim
1:00
What can we feasibly expect from Lance McCullers once he is back in action?  Do you think that he eventually moves to high leverage relief if he's effective (given his lengthy injury history)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
I don't think anybody really knows — this is a guy who's made eight starts since the 2021 season and who has only once made more than 22 starts. I'm not sure that shorter but more frequent bursts of action is the answer, but maybe that's what it will take
md
1:03
What are your thoughts on the (mostly unhinged fan) scuttlebutt of trying to get Muncy outta there for Arenado?Friedman has kind of been on record saying he doesn't like big midseason trades like that, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
I'm pretty lukewarm on Arenado at this stage, at least in terms of giving up significant talent for him. By all evidence he's a league-average bat with a glove that's still above average but no longer elite. That's useful but not somebody I wanna pay $25–30M per year for
Sevvy
1:07
What percentage would you put your confidence at for Chandler Simpson being able to handle major league pitchers? He rarely struck out and walked at a decent clip in the minors. I don't get why so many think that wouldn't transfer well with his speed.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
I think the concern is that he's got so little power that there's little reason for pitchers not to challenge him and he ends up with a Juan Pierre-type profile.
Allison
1:09
Is Luis Robert overrated or just mentally done on a terrible team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
That's a very good question. I wouldn't discount the effect of being surrounded by a miserable situation but... even if that's the case it doesn't speak well of the player because there are plenty who can block that out and still perform well. What I do think is more likely is that White Sox are so behind the times that he's not getting the proper intel for how he's being pitched and how to adjust.
Mo's bowtie
1:11
Regardless of "on-field performance" and all that, what do you think the odds are of Bloom selecting a new manager in Stl for 2026?  How important is that to a "new" GM?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
I've been pretty unimpressed by Marmol... and, frankly, every Cardinals manager since La Russa. If I'm Bloom I want a fresh start with a new voice in the dugout.
Sad O's Fan
1:12
Hey Jay, random idea and I know fangraphs isnt a fantasy baseball site, but i think it would be super cool to have some kind of "save" or "bookmark" on player pages. As a fantasy player i do most of my prospect research here, and especially when i read an article or look at a player page for some interesting young DSL guy it would be great to be able come back to that list of guys on my fangraphs profile so i dont lose track of them down the road
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
not a bad idea. You can do things like make a custom player list of your fantasy team so that you can pull up that report and see at a glance how your guys are doing
For the birds
1:13
Thoughts on the orioles pitching situation? Like I get that Morton being their #1 wasn’t part of the plan but he was still their #3 which is not much better
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
So far, I'm pretty underwhelmed by Elias' ability to maintain a contender and don't think much of the new ownership, which should be locking up these young studs like Adley and Gunnar.

The Orioles didn't do nearly enough to fortify a rotation that was pretty mediocre besides Burnes (who departed) and Grayson Rodriguez (who had injury issues last year and seems to be even worse off now). Morton is a fine #4 but if he's closer to the front of your rotation, you've got issues.
ghost of Vin Scully
1:19
Am I right to be disappointed in Roki Sasaki's performance to date and even his eventual ceiling? Champagne problems and adjustment period notwithstanding, I can't help but think he needs another pitch. Fastball not generating whiffs
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
There's obviously a lot of hype surrounding him and relative to that, he's been a disappointment but I think it's important to remember that he's not a finished product. He's 23, has a high-velo fastball and a nasty-as-hell splitter, but he may be adjusting to the different baseball as well as a different culture. I agree that he probably needs another pitch... and better command.
Lomster
1:23
Regarding your piece about the Twins.  Another example of their fumbling/bumbling: Baily Ober’s disastrous start of March 30. Two days prior he was sick in bed and the day before the start he had an IV. If Ober had a desk job I could understand “going to back to work” the next day. But he’s a major league pitcher where the margins for success are already thin when 100% healthy, especially in Ober’s situation in which this season there have been concerns about his declining velo to begin with. Whatever happened to putting your players in the best position to succeed? This was the complete opposite.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
there's a lot of machismo and pride involved when it comes to player health. I don't think this is specific to the Twins, but yeah I probably would have pushed him back in the rotation even if he declared he was good to go.
Guest
1:25
It seems to me that any great young pitcher has significantly lower HOF odds than a great young position player of roughly the same age/experience/talent just due to pitcher injuries.  Agree?  To draw out the comparison: Skenes HOF odds?  Elly HOF odds?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
Yeah, I'd agree. We just aren't seeing longevity out of pitchers the way we used to due to injuries and — let's face it — money. Not everybody is going to put themselves through another surgery/rehab cycle if they're sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars. Makes you appreciate what Kershaw has gone through the past couple of years even as he's sealed the deal regarding Cooperstown.
1:28
OK folks, gonna call it here since I'm not quite 100% myself. Thanks so much for stopping by!
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