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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/25/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks!
2:03
Sorry for the brief delay. I was immersed in details about Bryan Reynolds' extension, which I'll be covering for FanGraphs tomorrow. Today I have a piece on Logan O'Hoppe's season-threatening labrum injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/logan-ohoppes-promising-rookie-season-may-...
And yesterday I tapped into some Max Power https://blogs.fangraphs.com/muncy-is-back-to-showing-maximum-power/
Anyway, on with the show
International Baseball
2:03
The Montreal Expos have one of the most iconic logos of all time  and there seems to be a renewed interest in baseball. Can Montreal or Mexico City be taken seriously as expansion teams? How does the calculus of not being an American team factor in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
I think not being an American team complicates things exponentially. I know there's a lot of sentiment when it comes to returning baseball to Montreal but it's not at all clear that anyone can get a ballpark built there, and without that, you've got bupkis.
Mac
2:06
Is the yankees' lineup as bad as it looks
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:11
It shouldn't be this bad. They're missing Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader, and Josh Donaldson, and Aaron Judge has been slumping since Stanton went down, to the point that they've gotten just a 96 wRC+ from all three outfield spots, down from 115 a year ago. Yes, they should have done more to upgrade left field, and yes, they probably shouldn't be rostering both IKF and Hicks (not to mentoin both Franchy and Willie Calhoun)
so it could be rocky in the near term
Daniel
2:11
How likely is it that Spencer Strider can maintain a K% over 40% for the year? It's never been done outside of 2020.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
I think you just answered the question for us. I don't expect Strider to maintain a 42.6% K rate. Worth noting that four of his five outings (all except the Nationals) have been against teams in the upper half of the 30 teams in terms of strikeout rates.
Ben
2:13
What do you think of Scherzer's suspension for "cheating"? Do you think it will cost him any Hall of Fame votes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I think it should have been reduced or waived if he really was following the directions of the umpires. I don't think this makes a gnat's fart of a difference when it comes to Hall of Fame support — other than a few assholes who decided to sleep off their hangovers on the fainting couch before finally deigning to vote for 300-win/3000-strikeout Gaylord Perry I can't think of a pitcher whose ball-doctoring allegations cost him notable HOF support
Guest
2:16
What do you think of Bob Johnson's case for the Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
Great hitter who spent his ages 23-26 and 40-42 seasons in the PCL when he was probably major league caliber. He's 20th among LF in JAWS and wouldn't be a horrible choice but his era is overrepresented in the Hall and he's competing with everybody up to 1980, Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates for one of those eight precious ballot spots. I don't see it happening for him under the current framework and can't get too worked up about it.
Daniel
2:19
How long can the Braves keep trotting out Ozuna? It certainly seems like he's not going to be a productive player again.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
I don't know what they're waiting for. -1.5 WAR in parts of three seasons under this deal and a DV suspension as well. He's as sunk as sunk costs get.
A
2:21
Brandon Marsh breakout for real?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
He's massively ahead of his .239 xBA and .475 xSLG but those numbers are well ahead of his 2021-22 x-stats. Good reduction in chase and swinging strike rates, strikeout rate down a bit but still high. Not ready to call him a star but quite possibly on his way to above-average regular territory
Ray
2:25
Hey Jay, been reading your work for a long time.  Respect.  Is pitching to contact, great D, and contact hitting a sustainable solution to put the Cubs in contention for a wild card?  Any help on the farm that can be a gamechanger?  Your thoughts are appreciated.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
if you're going the contact route on both sides of the ball you need just about everything to go right. These Cubs do rank third in the NL in slugging but they have an xSLG of .368 so I'm not tremendously optimistic they can maintain this, and I don't think much of their rotation. Prospect-wise they've brought up their most MLB-ready Top 100 guy in Hayden Wesneski, and Javier Assad is up as well. I don't see any game-changers ready to help in 2023 unless they hit the gas on Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has all of nine games of Double-A under his belt.
Big Bucs
2:32
The Pirates paid Bryan Reynolds??? He should take the team for a nice dinner. I doubt that contract happens if the Pirates don't have the best record in the NL through the first 20+ games. Cheapo owner probably realized they're going to be more competitive in the next couple years than they'd thought prior to the start of the season
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
I think you're off base here in that the framework of the deal is the same as it was around Opening Day, before they were 16-7. The difference is that he dropped his opt-out demand and got limited no-trade protection instead, a clear win for the club. It's a very reasonable deal
Mike M
2:35
Your updated prediction for the Dodgers win total?  Your updated prediction for their win total if Mookie plays 20 games at SS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
i'd say it's about 84 wins either way. Weird times.
toshi
2:36
How long do we have to wait to see whether Kelenic has really changed for better? Thank you!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
it's starting to come into focus and it looks very real and much, much better. The contact is much more frequent and more productive when it happens. I don't expect him to keep slugging .667 or putting up a 189 wRC+ but i think his days of hitting .141 and striking out 1/3 of the time are behind him
chris
2:42
was looking at baseball-reference playoff odds vs. fangraph playoff odds. Some teams are waayyyyy different, the most shocking being the Padres. Sitting at 78.5% playoff odds here and 19.4% (!!!!) at baseball-reference. 538 splits the difference at 66%. Are these vastly different percentages even possible???
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
B-Ref has a vastly different methodology for computing its odds and I've never seen any demonstration as to how they hold up, whereas Ben Clemens audited our results in 2021 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-well-do-our-odds-work/
I have no idea how FiveThirtyEight does their odds either (ugh, bummer about the layoffs there).
Tstats
2:44
'Ello Jay! do you think savant will release VAA data soon? if not is there a place to find it (or even its components for the formula?). I recently spent a week computing IVB data just for the day I finish be the day savant releases its leaderboards!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
I hope so but have no inside information. I don't use it much, am only starting to get a handle on it, but I know it's available at Alex Chamberlain's pitch leaderboard https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/chamb117/viz/PitchLeaderboardv5...
Max Muncy, That Funky Muncy
2:50
What a heater Muncy is on! Balls appear juiced this year since it seems HR numbers are up across the board
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
Home runs are up about 6% relative to last year, fly ball ditsances are up about 4 feet relative to games through April 24 in 2022 and '23 seasons, and per Rob Arthur, drag is down a bit: "This year, we’re on track for a baseball that’s roughly as aerodynamic as it was in 2020 and 2021, leading to high but not stratospheric home run numbers." https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/81981/moonshot-drag-20...
Insert Witty Name Here
2:52
We’re almost a month into the new season and the pitch clock and shift rules are…not really noticeable? Your thoughts on the early going?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I'd say they're noticeable but not distracting. I think there are some dumb applications of the pitch clock (penalizing Bellinger for the ovation) and I could stand a couple of extra seconds of slack but we're seeing as much if not more time cut off during regular season games as we did in spring training. Batting averages and BABIP are up, offense is up. a promising start.
NihilistDuda
2:55
As a Mets fan, feel pretty good right now with 4 starters out and a 7-3 West Coast swing (usually our death knell). Thoughts on the Amazins so far, Jay?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
They've weathered a lot of bad luck early. I'm even more concerned about their rotation depth than I otherwise would be given Scherzer's early struggles; he's looking very 38 right now.
JR
2:58
So sad about O'Hoppe. What are the chances this injury significantly affects his performance into 2024 or beyond?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
There's definitely a chance, particularly as his left shoulder is his lead shoulder as a hitter, which can sap power. Tatis, Bellinger, Greg Bird and Matt Kemp come to mind as hitter who had lead/non-throwing labrum injuries, and they offer some cautionary tales.
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