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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/25/23
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NihilistDuda
3:00
I know it’s super early in his career but thoughts on Pete Alonso’s bid for the HoF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
not high. He's got fantastic power and is a competent first baseman but while he's put up big HR numbers, his OBPs are meh, and he's s got one 5.5-WAR season and two in the low 4s so far — he needs some 6 and 7s to start building a Hall case. Preseason ZiPS projects him for career totals of 442 homers and 33.5 WAR, which won't get it done.
Richie
3:06
Clearly Spencer Strider doesn't NEED third pitch to be successful....but if he developed one? Should he? Is it possible to be better? Or is the "stick to what you excel at" the best thing for him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
IMO it's not a question of if Strider will need a third pitch but when, because he won't be able to Bring It like this forever. Clearly he doesn't need it today (or in time for his next start)
Mookie
3:09
Red Sox recently sending down one of the few exciting pieces on their team in Bryan Bello. Are they turning into the Rockies?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
he's got two starts, both with three or more runs in fewer than five innings. He's got promise but the excitement must be coming in short bursts because a 9.82 ERA and 6.62 FIP isn't going to get it done. He's also got options remaining, so I'd expect him to be shuttling when it suits the Red Sox, up to the point that he reaches his five-time limit.
I say Halo
3:12
This could literally be the most pivotable time in the history of the Angels franchise.  Hovering around .500 with a little over 2 months until we approach the deadline.  Shohei stay or Shohei go? How do you see it playing out, buyers for a run or the biggest sale ever at the deadline?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
I think they're better than this but... they don't seem to care what I think on that subject and insist on playing .500sh ball. Right now I'd be surprised if they trade him because I think they believe they can spend as big as any team, and have proven they can handle him in a way that works. But if they can't get it together over the next 2 1/2 months I think they have to consider doing the unthinkable.
Sharp
3:16
I really enjoyed your article about Salt Lake City expansion. My friends who live in the area acted like there was no way it was possible. But I like thinking about alternative locations and based on their proposal it sounds like it's a long shot but it *could* work.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Thanks. I think it's one that even the locals might have trouble wrapping their heads around but it does seem to have more pieces in place than your average expansion bid — location, transit, primary ownership group with experience in running a major sports franchise AND in getting a facility built. The climate (the lake) is a major issue and i just don't know what the political will is like to tackle the water rights stuff that is exacerbating the situation.
Derek
3:19
Is this version of Cody Bellinger here to stay (and stay successful)? I hesitate to ask if he's "back" because this low-K, high contact, middling exit velo profile doesn't really seem to resemble anything he's ever looked like, even when he was good!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
You know that Bart Simpson chalkboard bit in the opening credits of the Simpsons? The version of me in that one is writing:

I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
etc
A's relocation
3:20
Am I wrong to think that things probably won't work out very well for the A's in Las Vegas? They're moving from one of the largest population and TV markets to one of the smallest, and they think tourists are going to help fill their stadium 81 times a year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
It sure as hell doesn't look all that rosy if you're not John Fisher and Dave Kaval. I don't love their odds, and feel like they're the classic desperate gambler pulling into Vegas believing they're due to turn things around.
Christian
3:22
A twist on all the Kelenic questions I'm sure you are tired of getting: what does a Kelenic extension look like if he plays at an All-Star level the rest of the year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
That's a question for Dan and his ZiPSmobile
LFGM
3:23
Syndergaard's fastball is down several ticks since his TJ surgery.  Will he get his velocity back another year removed from surgery or is this it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
the hype was supposed to be that he'd be BACK this year but he's looked pretty mediocre, and his fastball scores just a 63 on Stuff+, down 3 points from last year; his overall Stuff+ has fallen from 87 to 76. Look out below!
Charlie
3:26
When is it time to panic for St. Louis?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
now's a good time given that rotation
Pattern Developing
3:27
2018: Aaron Judge sets rookie HR record with 52.  2019: Pete Alonso breaks record with 53 HR.  2022: Aaron Judge sets league record with 62 HR.  2023: Pete Alonso ................
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
... does not surpass Judge's 62 homers. Judge got to where he got to with a 95.8 mph average exit velo, 26.2% barrel rate and a .706 xSLG. Alonso doesn't have the capability of producing specs like that (averaging 91.2 mph, 17.9% barrel rate, .657 xSLG) — but then just about nobody on earth can produce specs like that.
3:30
There's no shame in that, but I don't think Judge makes sense as a yardstick.
Matt VW
3:32
Triston Casas is off to a pretty rocky start. How much of this is "it's April," how much of this is "sometimes adjusting to the bigs takes a minute," and how much of this is "the Red Sox have seen a ton of left-handed pitching to start the season"?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
There's probably an element of truth to all of these but he's been only had 23 PA against lefties and is hitting .106/.246/.255 in 57 PA against righties, which seems to me like a bigger problem.
Rick Ankielosaurus
3:34
If baseball had begun with DH and its recent Ohtani rules, wouldn't there have already been some two-way players with sustained elite two-way production? Maybe Ohtani is a better SP than a fully two-way Ruth would have been, but he isn't hitting at Ruth's level. W.Ferrell allowed to full-time DH. Dihigo, period. Ohtani's impressive, of course, but isn't the extent to which he's unprecedented reliant on friendly rules his predecessors didn't get to benefit from?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
Eh, there may be something to that but Ferrell and Ruth were playing in segregated leagues that excluded some of the very best talent around, where Ohtani is competing against a much higher level of talent.
Aidan
3:39
I don't know if he turned heads outside of Oakland, but is Mason Miller likely to shoot up the prospect rankings, or is it still too small a sample size? He hit 102.5  mph in his debut.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
I'd say it's pretty early. His Top 100 ranking included a 70-grade fastball but also 30/40 command, and factored his injury risk in there. Let's wait and see.
3:42
Ok folks, lots of good questions in the queue  but I've gotta rest my arm (seriously, my shoulder hurts after I played catch with a friend on Friday and threw full-tilt for the first time in at least 6 years). Thanks for stopping by, and we'll see you next week!
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