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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/29/22
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The guy who asks the lunch question
2:41
What's for lunch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
I had frozen seafood paella from Trader Joe's. it came recommended from some food blog devoted to such things. It... was ok. Underseasoned but the seafood wasn't bad. Not sure I'll buy again but it will tide me over until I can order real paella in a restaurant
Insert Witty Name Here
2:44
Hunter Greene starting today in COL. Do you think his lower Velo was intentional last time out? If it’s still only around 95, would it be time to worry?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
By his own comments and those of his manager, he didn't seem tremendously alarmed, but I think we've seen the increased risk factor that guys pushing the envelope face. At some point or another he's going to have to rein in his velocity a bit to survive.

note his comments here https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/greene-not-concerned-with-drop-...
Hosmer
2:48
Are teams not shifting on Hosmer when the recent data says they should be? How long do opponents tend to take to adjust to hitter profile changes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
That's a good question to which I don't know the answer. I would imagine that a few weeks worth of data might be actionable. We've seen Hosmer have stretches like this where he's more pull happy. To wit:
Gertrude
2:51
Gimme your top three managers in baseball.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
tough to decide on the spot but Craig Counsell continually impresses me, and Bob Melvin always seems to get more out of whatever he's got than I expect. Cash, Francona, Kapler, Roberts, Showalter, Dusty, Maddon... I'm not sure who else i'd put in a top 3 or even a top 5 but those are the guys I'd at least nominate
Nasty Nestor
2:55
How about me?!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Didn't we touch upon this last week? https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/nestor-cortes-is-for-real/
TomBruno23
2:56
Yadier Molina....Toast?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
He's 39 and already said this is his last season, I don't think anybody should be surprised if he falls off, but I don't think 40 PA is enough to tell us whether that has definitively happened.
JV
2:57
Anthony Rizzo's Hall numbers are nowhere close to Giancarlo Stanton.  But isn't Rizzo considered the better player by concensus?  Does Rizzo have any chance for the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
Rizzo is a very popular player who does a lot of things pretty well, and he's off to a very good start. I don't see him as having a great shot at the Hall — I'd put his odds well below those of Stanton.
First Base (48th):
38.0career WAR |32.17yr-peak WAR |35.0JAWS |4.3WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162
WinTwins0410
2:59
Jay, apart from managers, executives and umpire (singular, since really only the unremarkable Joe West), who else came out a big winner in the revamped Era Committee process? To me, it seems like Tommy John now has a better shot of getting in the Hall than before. He was going nowhere in his prior cohort, and he’s now in a cohort that strikes me as comparatively weaker (Dick Allen notwithstanding). I realize that some of this depends on how many Negro League players a future screening committee places on the eight-person Classic ballot. I also think Dave Parker, Thurman Munson and even Bobby Grich might see better electoral prospects on the Classic ballot. Which *players* do you think are (likely) the biggest winners in this revamped process?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
I need to think about this more, TBH, and may do a full piece on it in the not too distant future. I don't think a guy like Munson who has had trouble getting on ballots and getting anywhere on them is in great shape one way or another. Likewise Grich.
Grant
3:01
How many future HOF 3B are active in 2022?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
As many as 4? Decent chances for Machado and Arenado, a bit further to go for Jose Ramirez, need a strong finish from Evan Longoria but he hasn't even played yet this year so I would call that a long shot
Kretin
3:03
Ok, what should we make of Taylor Ward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
Haven't read it since it just went up 12 minutes ago but Dan Szymborski just wrote this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-angels-hot-start-is-partially-taylor-m...
3:04
WE HAVE NEWS
Two years
3:05
that is starting today, does not include credit for adminstrative leave.
bosoxforlife
3:05
Hard to leave Devers off the list. If he plays to 35 thenumbers should be very good.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
Devers has 11.1 career WAR. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
5.4 WAR in 2019, 3.5 last year with -13 DRS. I'm not sure he's a 3B long term
barney gumble
3:07
hey Jay. why is it that different positions have disparate average HOF WAR, even though WAR is meant to fairly compare players across different time periods/positions? I would think that different positions would still have very similar average HOF WAR (aside from pitchers)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
We're still working with comparatively small samples (~20-25 per position except 3B and C), the lines about who belongs where aren't all that clean, and HOF elections weren't based on WAR to begin with. We shouldn't be too surprised that the mattress is lumpy.
barney gumble
3:08
how can they not credit Bauer for admin leave? not that I'm outraged, per se, just curious from a legal perspective
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
to the extent that I understand it: MLB had enough cause to put him on administrative leave based upon its jointly-agreed policy. He got paid during that period of time, also per policy. If the policy were different he might have gotten an even longer suspension, and things might have unfolded differently.

But I'm not a lawyer either. So don't take that to the bank.
bosoxforlife
3:12
Yelich's bunt against the shift was the key to the Brewers 9th inning win yesterday. Jason Stark on MLB.TV right now said that even  50 %  success rate amounted a 1,000 OPS. I think the players think that they have be successful all the time or it is a bad play and don't understand the value of the play.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
Well, i think it's also not as easy to bunt as just telling a guy to lay one down and it will all work out.
3:13
It takes a lot of practice, and i think for a lot of players, especially sluggers, they'd have to renew that practice
bosoxforlife
3:13
Much too much importance in determining WAR is given to the position a player plays. Freddie Freeman should not be penalized in WAR simply because he plays 1st base. I laugh when I hear somebody say that picking bad throws in the dirt is a random act  or that range isn't important.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
I wish we had a better way of quantifying the value of 1B scoops
3:15
OK folks, I have to duck out early as planned. We'll chat more next time. In the meantime, take care!
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