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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/29/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:00
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat!
12:02
Yesterday I wrote about Eugenio Suárez's four-homer game https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eugenio-suarez-joins-the-four-homer-club-a... and the changes he's made over the past year.
Tomorrow I'll have something on the Logan Gilbert injury and the shape of the Mariners rotation.
12:03
Today I am alas nursing a sore lower back, something that's dogged me for over a week and has me in a bit of a grouchy mood. I'm moving gingerly at best. Ugh.
Mr. Fister
12:03
Jay, thanks for chatting!  I asked this about 5 years ago, and I'd like to re-visit it.  I know the odds are probably that he does not make the HOF, but what would Salvy Perez have to do in the remainder of his career to increase those odds?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
he'd have to convince me that his -115. 8 framing runs was just an accounting error.
12:05
Seriously, he has 18.2 fWAR once you account for his pitch framing. I'm never gonna vote for that or recommend anyone else should
12:06
not when Russell Martin (545 fWAR) and Brian McCann (52.1 fWAR) went one-and-done on the 2025 BBWAA ballot.
Still mad!
Eli
12:06
Is it time for Yankee fans to just accept that Volpe is Alvaro Espionza with a bit more pop and a bit less mustache?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Dude has a low batting average but a 122 wRC+ on a .229/ .322/.448 slashline. I don't love his approach at the plate but he's an excellent defender and baserunner who was worth 3.4 wins last year as a 23-year-old. Crankees fans need to stop worrying about what Volpe can't do (hit for a Jeteresque batting average) and appreciate that they have a pretty good shortstop right now.
Seeking Solutions
12:09
Do you ever think about this era you're covering as a specific period of time in baseball history? Post-steroids? Pre-salary-cap? Strikeouts and dingers? Just wondering, since you have such a grasp on the various eras and ballplayers. Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
I tend to think of this as the analytics era, since the advanced statistical stuff drives so much decision making and even player development.
Dirt
12:11
Mathematically speaking, should teams be IBBing Aaron Judge more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
I think so, though not to Bonds levels. Would be interested in seeing someone model this.
Topher B
12:12
What do you think Juan Soto's WRC+ will be at the end of the year? Been a slow but not unreasonable start for him so far
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:15
I think he'll be close to his career mark of 157 (he's at 124 now). Not sure exactly what's going on with him but we saw him scuffle a bit like this when he was traded to the Padres. He may be a superhuman hitter but he's hitting too many groundballs right now so I'm guessing he's just a mechanical tweak away.
Alec
12:15
Is there any kind of statistic that currently factors baserunning into an effective slugging percentage? Thinking of speedsters like Chandler Simpson who hit a ton of singles, but if they steal second base x% of the time they get to first, they're effectively doubles. Does Fangraphs have anything like this - basically adding SB to a players TB when calculating slugging %?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
No, and the problem with that approach is that the extra base he adds by stealing doesn't have the same effect as a double because it's not advancing the runner.
Gregory
12:17
HOF chances for Altuve?  Some would argue that if you keep Bonds, Clemens, and others out for suspicion of cheating, Altuve should be in the same boat, and I tend to agree.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
I think he'll get elected, whether or not he gets to 3,000 hits or approaches the JAWS standard at 2B (he's over 10 points short, no pun intended). If Carlos Beltrán — who has been portrayed as far more central to the sign-stealing scheme — is on the cusp of election (70.3% in 2025) then I don't see how the player who reportedly asked his teammates not to tip him off is going to suffer at the hands of voters.
Robert Nerenberg
12:20
Baseball in Colorado isn't a workable proposition is it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
Not so long as it's owned by the Monforts, at least.
Jazz
12:20
Can you explain something to me Jay?  Why is it that with the PED cloud keeping the Bonds, Kent, Clemens of the world out of the HOF, someone like David Ortiz, who actually failed PED tests (unlike the former three players listed) makes it?  Is is simply because of the whole "Boston Icon", "our effing city", teddy bear persona?  I literally do not get it.  What separates cheaters in the eyes of voters, and why did Ortiz, a cheater, make the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
Ortiz reportedly failed the 2003 survey test, which was supposed to be anonymous — a crime was committed in leaking the results — and years later, Manfred publicly noted that the substance for which he tested positive was one that would have been subject to arbitration over the validity of the results. It was a curious step but it did seem to clear him in the eyes of those who might have otherwise been inclined to withhold their support.
12:24
Me, I draw a line between the pre-testing era, when there were no penalties in place for using PEDs, and the start of testing in 2004. So I voted for Ortiz and Bonds and Clemens.
Zach
12:25
So, was everyone wrong about the Mariners offense? They're #2 in baseball in wRC+ this season, and #1 since Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez took over last August.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
They're off to a very encouraging start, for sure. I don't think that makes everybody wrong — we're talking about 28 games, not 162, but some nice bouncebacks from guys like Crawford and Polanco, who are better players than they looked last year.
Talfred
12:27
Should managers reconsider the logic of pinch-hitting? Pinch-hitters this year are hitting .210 with a 79 wRC+, even with pinch-hitters likely having the platoon advantage in their at bats. It just seems harder than ever to come off the bench cold for a plate appearance.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
I don't know this for sure but I suspect it's harder early in the season when the weather is colder as well. But I think the bigger issue is that benches are shorter, so there are fewer PH specialists on rosters — the Manny Motas and Lenny Harrises of the world — and they're facing an increasingly higher percentage of one-inning relievers who can empty the tank with their high-velo arsenals. It's not an easy job.
War2d2
12:29
Hi Jay! Moises Ballesteros is hitting .414 with a 1.061 OPS in AAA despite having an absolute dump truck @$$. At what point does it make sense for the Cubs to see if Busch can still play 3rd and if Ballesteros can at least fake it at 1B? Or if not, then whether or not (former infielder) Ian Happ can play 1B and Seiya Suzuki can play LF while Ballesteros gets some run at DH? Cubs’ 3B is such a black hole at this point.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
I wouldn't hold my breath on Busch ever playing third again; I think they burned his glove in an exorcism.
12:33
Third base will be solved eventually when Shaw returns. I'm not sure how they shoehorn Ballesteros into that lineup but injuries happen and i imagine we'll see him up at some point.
Bob
12:33
How can you evaluate the career of a player like Luke Easter who did not produce statistics until later in life?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Easter is a particularly tough one — fascinating, even, because he didn't play in any organized league until his age-31 season... and he kept going until age 48! It seems quite likely that he had Hall of Fame-level talent but a series of bad breaks — struggles in Negro Leagues exhibitions, injuries, the outbreak of World War II — kept him from getting a real shot.
12:38
What we do have — a player who hit for a 128 OPS+ and slugged .481 from ages 31 to 38 against major league competition — is pretty impressive given that most players are in their decline phase by that point in time.
Sodo Mojo
12:38
Cal Raleigh is looking at another incredible year.  Does he have enough bat to play 1B or DH in the back 5 years of his career and get to the WAR he would need to get a look at the Hall. The peak look good but with all catchers his longevity seems to be the issue.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Color me skeptical. He got something of a late start in the majors (first full season was age 25) and has a career .219/.299/.451 (114 wRC+) slash line. While he's been better than that recently, that's not going to make for a particularly productive 1B/DH once he comes down.
12:42
Thanks to his framing, Raleigh does have 15.2 fWAR, 3.0 fewer than our pal Sal Perez, in about 4400 fewer PA. Nuf sed.
Colt Keith
12:42
Am I cooked?
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