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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/30/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat! Later today I'll head up to Yankee Stadium for my first game of the year — my first since last September 16, when Kyle Higashioka hit three home runs in a game I covered (though my attentions were elsewhere when it came to subjects) and my first as a fan since September 19, 2019.
2:03
Speaking of Higashioka, I wrote about him, Gary Sánchez, and the Yankees' not-so-sudden catching controversy yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-yankees-funk-kyle-higashioka-catches-....
2:04
I wrote about position player pitching weirdness today https://blogs.fangraphs.com/position-players-are-suddenly-and-probably... and also had a spot on the FanGraphs Audio podcast talking to Dan Szymborski about the Pioneer League's experimental rules https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-dan-szymborski-recites-his... which I wrote about here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/decision-by-derby-the-pioneer-league-joins...
And that's enough housekeeping for now
Estevão
2:04
Mookie Betts is the fifth best hitter on the Dodgers? Thoughts
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
Betts has been a bit banged up; he missed a couple days due to lower back stiffness and then got drilled on the right forearm. I don't think there's much to worry about here; his 121 wRC+ is still solid, and the Dodgers do have a bunch of good hitters, though their recent slide suggests they're missing Cody Bellinger more than before, and their depth has taken a few other hits.
bob
2:07
with the Wilpons blessedly gone, does the Worst Owner In MLB crown pass to Dick Monfort?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
without a doubt, yes.
Gil
2:08
The boo birds are out in Queens for Lindor and Conforto. I don't expect them to perform this poorly all year but do you see anything in their profiles that gives you pause about ROS performance? Or is everything they've done so far still in SSS territory?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
Lindor's walk rate and groundball rate are both well above his career norms. I wonder if he's having a harder time adjusting to a new set of pitchers than expected, and also if there's anything mechanical going on with his swing. One thing we often see when players switch teams is that they tend to press, which manifests itself in a higher O-Swing%, but that doesn't seem to be happening here.
2:11
As for Conforto, likewise a TON of grounders and very, very few barrels. Again, might be mechanics, and I wonder about any self-applied pressure going into his walk year.
2:12
but who knows, that's all guesswork. Most likely both of these guys will sort themselves out in due time
Wireless Joe Jackson
2:12
No digital love for MLB WAR leader Byron Buxton?  He still isn't walking much, but replacing half his strikeouts with extra base hits is really working out for him.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
I wrote about him during the season's first week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/byron-buxtons-uneven-progress/. I'm sure we'll have more to say if he stays hot
Raphie C
2:13
The Padres are going through it with elbow injuries in a seemingly unprecedented way. How much of this can be tied to the new ways of high velo baseball vs. Larry Rothschild vs. plain dumb luck?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I'm sure that there's no way you're going to get any kind of without-a-doubt link between the new ball and a cluster of injuries on one team, and it probably has less to do with one pitching coach than it does with some combination of dumb luck and the training staff.

That said, the Padres really have had a cluster. 11 pitchers in the organization have undergone Tommy John surgery since last March, and Dinelson Lamet had a UCL sprain. The handling  of Lamet and Mike Clevinger has raised some eyebrows as they seem to be convinced they can send these guys back out there sooner rather than later.
CoryMC
2:17
Which of Carson, Kelly, and Guerrero do you think is most likely to keep up their incredible pace?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Vladito. He had the highest ceiling to begin with and is now producing barrels galore. He won't hit for a 220 wRC+ but he's gonna wind up well above last year's 112.
Bighurt
2:18
Jerry reinsdorf is the worst
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
There are a lot of things I don't like about Reinsdorf — particularly the extent to which he's wielded among owners  and his involvement in the game's economics — but you don't see the White Sox doing the kinds of shit that Monfort does, continually alienating star players and squandering resources.
45 blows billygoats
2:21
First time, long time...Les Royales have been an eye opener to start the year. When do they tap into that Tripple-A SP talent and get serious about the year, and who gets the nod first? Thanks and I'll take your answer off the air...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
Doing exactly 30 seconds of homework on this — i had intended to pull up the Royals' Top Prospects list but Eric hasn't finished it, oops — I'd say Daniel Lynch, in June. I suspect that like most teams, the Royals want to "balance near-term and long-term priorities" (cough) and also want their minor leaguers to get some competitive game action after missing out last year .
Judson
2:24
Jay, how close is Aroldis Chapman to having a decent case for the Hall? Always seems dominant but isn't talked about as close to Hall-worthy, from my perspective.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
He's probably on the path but with just 555.1 innings, he doesn't show up on my WAR-WPA-WPI/LI leaderboard https://blogs.fangraphs.com/craig-kimbrel-is-dominant-once-again/ and he's just 34 on the all-time saves list. Plus he's not much fun to write about since his DV suspension. It's tough to greet his case with the usual enthusiasm
Estevão
2:27
I'm not concerned about Betts I simply believe the order os Seager, Bellinger, Turner, Muncy, Betts, Smith
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Don't forget Chris Taylor, whose 138 wRC+ since the start of last year is only three points below Betts in that span.
sdz
2:29
Is BA and OBP the new inefficiencies? Everytime I look at the boxscores, I notice many players cannot buy a hit. Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
We're in an age where, home runs aside, pitchers have the upper hand thanks to ever-increasing velocities, Last  year's .245 batting average was the lowest since 1972's .244, and we're at .232 now, which may owe in some measures to small samples, cold early-season temperatures, and the new ball as well as the velo stuff and a failure of hitters in general to change their approach with two strikes.
Joey Moppo Stan
2:32
This past calendar year alone, the Athletic has done two fantastic oral compendiums about Greinke and Votto. In addition to their superlative stats, how much do stories like these (advancing narratives about their personalities within the game) help for building a Hall of Fame case among general voters? Particularly someone like Votto where the numbers might not immediately jump out at you.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
It certainly can't hurt, and i think both of those guys are particularly going to benefit because they've been so weird and cool in addition to being great.
Appa Yip Yip
2:35
Zack Greinke refused to pay for guacamole on his burritos because the price went up 50 cents and he didn't want to let the burrito place win.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
like I said.
Jeff
2:36
Kris Bryant with a nearly .300/.400/.600 slash to open the year, knocked 5% of his 2020 K rate. Does anyone care or has he kinda been marketed out of being a premier player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
I'm sure a number of potential trade partners and teams in the market for a third baseman next winter care.
Cueto's Shimmy
2:36
Say a pitcher sits 91-93 and touches 95. Is that variability because they are making conscious choices to trade command for velocity or more just natural variation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
some variation and some conscious choice. The really good pitchers are able to add and subtract velo without too much fuss. If you've been seeing 95 with one kind of movement and you suddenly get 93 with different movement, that might be enough to mess with you.
Matt W
2:39
With the bombshell that just dropped re:Alomar, do you think MLB, Toronto and the Hall have reacted appropriately?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
even based on what little we know — that this is a workplace-related allegation stemming from Alomar's post-playing and post-HOF election period — it seems a little strong, but it's possible that the facts warrant the severity. An investigation into the conduct of an MLB-employed individual found some serious wrongdoing, serious enough to put him on the ineligible list rather than a mere suspension. The team with which he's most identified immediately moved to distance itself from him rather than noodling around. The Hall, which has no precedent for evicting an elected player, showed its typical restraint.
Tommy
2:44
The Red Sox have a very weird short stop situation upcoming. Xander really can not play SS anymore, and with the combination of his opt out and the free agents available this offseason, do the Sox go out and get a player? and if so what happens with Xander?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
there might be a trade with Bogaerts winding up at 3B, but I think that would take a restructuring involving Bogaerts' opt-out, possibly using Arenado's reworking as a model (retains the right to opt out but gets an extra guaranteed year)
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