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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/30/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
Yeah, it's not a lot of data (59 PA, 40 BBE) but he's swinging a lot less and making contact a lot more, and that's a very good sign.
Crazy Question
3:07
What would Sonny Gray have to do to get into the HoF? I see very few SP from this era getting in unless the standards change. I don't think he currently has any chance, but he seems to be aging like a fine wine. If he can put up a 5 WAR seasons with STL, and then stick around as an average SP until 40, does that give him any shot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
With Gerrit Cole out, nobody's piling up innings these days, but Gray is especially not piling up innings, having qualified for the ERA title just once in the past three years. He's in his age-34 season and has three seasons of at least 5.0 bWAR; I think he's going to need a bunch more before he even gets talked about in HOF terms.
AL Central Casting
3:09
I've read articles suggesting specific players give up switch-hitting because they are particularly poor from one side. It seems to me there would be a difficult learning curve to doing so, since they'd not only be giving up the platoon advantages based on physics and geometry, but also the fact that they'd be seeing same-side pitching for the first time in a long while (if ever). Wouldn't it be more beneficial to the team to just platoon them as much as possible? Related question: with the increase in specialization in baseball, will there be a time when switch-hitting is nearly extinct?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
The thing about platooninig is that it doesn't happen in a vacuum; you need the right roster construction to pull it off, and even then it carries a cost as to what you can do with the rest of your bench. My gut tells me that a player who's struggling with switch-hitting can probably adapt without too much trouble given the low bar for improvement, but I don't have data at hand to back that up. Would be interesting for somebody to study.
Tommy
3:14
Which divisional race are you most excited to follow through October? Other than Dodgers probably running away with the NL West, the other five should have pretty tight races
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Probably the AL East since it's the one I get to see the most from my NYC vantage. But it would be really wild if the AL Central turns into a 3 or 4 team race.
Elliott
3:15
How does Vladdy Jr. have a hard hit% of 54% and a .351 slugging%, bad luck or something else?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
His groundball rate is above 50% and he's pulling the ball less than ever. Not sure what is going on there but I can imagine Blue Jays fans are tearing their hair out.
Re: Nats
3:17
With all these young shortstops (Henderson, De La Cruz, Volpe, Abrams) what would their extension numbers be? Are they all in Bobby Witt territory?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
Dan Szymborski is the one to ask. He just published a rundown that included a potential extension for Elly De La Cruz but that's the only one of the four mentioned https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-sign-some-contracts-2024-edition/
Anon21
3:22
I don't mean that the Braves planned their approach around the ball per se--I mean they've adopted a fairly all-or-nothing approach to hitting that's predicated on the expected value of the "all" (making good contact). If that expected value has meaningfully decreased, it could leave them high and dry.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
They're making great contact — first or second in the majors in EV, barrel and hard-hit rates. But they do hit a ton of grounders (5th in MLB), and have a middle-of-the-pack strikeout rate so I'm not really seeing how that translates to an all-or-nothing approach.
Alex Anthopoulos
3:25 
If you are ducking because you vehemently stated that Betts shoud have been the MVP, then you know that something is not right in it. Care to broaden?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
Just having a little fun winding humorless Braves fans up after getting an endless amount of shit from them for suggesting that — gasp — Betts might be worthy of the award last year.
Dilly Dog
3:26
Think PCA ends up going back down, or if he hits he sticks?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
I think he could be up and down for at least the first half of the season but it does depend on how quickly Bellinger returns and the extent to which Crow-Armstrong hits. If they're in a race late in the season, it's clear that they value his speed and defense enough to keep him around even if it's just as a bench piece.
Johnny
3:30
Is NOLAN JONES cooked - or is his horrible start due to his injury?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
is a 25-year-old guy who had a 135 wRC+ last year and just went on the IL for a back injury cooked? Is that what you're asking?
Joey Doughnuts
3:32
Has there ever been a position player in MLB history with as steep of a rise and subsequent fall as Kris Bryant? I feel like people don't talk about this nearly enough.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
MVP in his age-24 season, replacement level-ish from his age-30 onward? I'm struggling to think of a parallel quite as dramatic, though I'll note that Jeff Burroughs was an MVP at 23 and then totaled just 3.2 WAR from ages 28-34.
André René Roussimoff
3:36
Are the Daulton Varsho's offensive improvements for real? Thanks, Jay.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
Color me skeptical at least for the moment. While he's become more selective at the plate, he's not hitting the ball hard at all, and both his xBA and xSLG are down about 40 points from last year, when they more or less mirrored his actual production.
Older than you
3:38
Comparison to Kris Bryant - Grady Sizemore. https://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=15429,2197
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
Sizemore was a star but not an MVP and champion; Bryant had much further to fall.
Tim
3:39
I really like the Mets city connect but others have ripped them. What say you?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
I liked the jerseys OK but I think they look ridiculous with the white pants.
Re: Kris Bryant
3:40
Cody Bellinger?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
We're not there yet — or rather, he does seem to have pulled out of his nosedive — but like Bryant, he does have the MVP/champion combo heights to fall from.
Re: Sonny Gray
3:42
I agree at the moment Gray doesn't have the numbers, but more of a hopeful. He is 9th on the active pitcher bWAR list wtih some sure fire HOF above him but retiring soon. Cole, Nola, and Wheeler are the only others from this generation to look to even have a chance with good aging. I don't think we will see many pitchers putting up 50 WAR careers and it seems someone hitting that mark could potentially become the HoF criteria if you want any pitchers in.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:43
Short answer to a long topic: I think we're more likely to experience a drought in pitchers being elected than in the standards being lowered dramatically.
3:45
OK folks, that's enough out of me for today. Just remember: everybody who's struggling right now is either washed up, cooked, or just totally through. Panic now, and again tomorrow!
I kid, I kid. Thanks for stopping by, and remain calm. We'll do this again soon...
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