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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/4/23

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shortstop

2:45

Dallas: Ohtani will probably get 5 days off between starts. If LAA has an off day, I bet they bump the 6th guy to the bullpen.

Mr. Burrito

2:47

Jay -- Love your work. Dumb question: The Dodgers are swapping out vets for rookies/reclamation projects off of one of the better regular season teams of all time. Is there any historical precedence for this? Has there been a team that won anything close to 111 games and, in the next season, tossed out two SPs and three regular position players? If so, how'd that go?

Jay Jaffe

2:49

I don't think there's any recent precedent for this at all. Seems like an A's level teardown but I'd have to look more closely to see how much turnover there was

Sad Rockies Fan

2:49

Re: Astoria Food Recs - I lived in Astoria until recently - Sabor de Cuba, District Saigon, and Il Bambino were my go-to's

Dan

2:50

Judge said the other day that he expects to be better this year. Now 1 of course thinks this. 2 even if he's right and his true talent increases this year and next odds are last year is his best statistical year right?

Jay Jaffe

2:52

yes, because 10-win seasons are improbable. That said, it's possible Judge could fall off a bit offensively and get some of his defensive value back; he had a smaller positional adjustment because of his time in CF last year but his raw metrics weren't as good as his early-career days in RF. 1.1 runs fielding + positional in 2022 compared to a high of 3.8 in 2017 and '19.

shortstop

2:52

1998 Marlins!

Jay Jaffe

2:53

there you go as far as recent teardowns. It didn't go well — but the Marlins were much more aggressive, they weren't keeping the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Julio Urías around.

2:56

Any thoughts on Trevor Larnach this year? He seems like a true under the radar breakout candidate.

Jay Jaffe

2:58

he was a 55 FV prospect heading into his 2021 due to plus power and patience, hit for a 102 wRC+ last year (though just 160 PA) with an 11.8% barrel rate and strong defense in both corners. 26 now, breakout is probably too strong a word but I think it's worth seeing if he's for real

Hank

2:59

Bassitt velocity/first start showing way-too-early potential as a disastrous contract?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

waaaay too early

Ace

3:00

Who do you like more for 2023: Friedl or Larnach?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

Larnach, who hits the ball much harder

Roger

3:00

Do you think the Drury can land a full time role this season?

Jay Jaffe

3:01

pretty sure that's why he signed with the Angels

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:01

I would like anyone predicting a Cody Bellinger bounce back year to identify themselves for public shaming, please and thank you.

Jay Jaffe

3:02

Wasn't me, sheriff. what hopes I had for him went out the window last year. he's now the subject of "i can fix him" dreams and fantasies that will all fall short

Gonzo

3:04

Do you think Manaea can succeed as a starter in SF?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

I think so given their recent track record of getting more out of their pitchers than expected. Kyle Kishimoto looked at the signing here and identified some issues they need to address https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sean-manaea-returns-to-the-bay-signs-with-...

ZacharyA

3:05

Hey Jay! There were more HR yesterday (53) than on any April day since 2019. Just a fluke thing? Result of warmer weather? Pitchers making mistakes due to the clock? Or are the balls juiced again?

Jay Jaffe

3:05

something to keep an eye on. we don't have nearly enough information to go on

Whoop

3:08

Are you buying Luke Raley? Reports show some good offseason swing adjustments.

Jay Jaffe

3:09

I've seen the reports. Sure, it could work, but I don't think two homers so far tells us much, especially given that they're accompanied by a .224 xSLG.

Tstats

3:09

Afternoon Jay, favorite overreaction to start the season? Vargas being the single season BB leader?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

the one where a segment of Padres fans was convinced Juan Soto is cooked due to his 1-for-15 start. Come on

3:12

I will throw out that Astoria Seafood is a fun spot where you pick your seafood from a counter, choose how it's cooked, and get to enjoy it a few moments later. It's also a rare BYO place for NYC. Astoria's also just a great neighborhood for Greek specialties in general. My Greek in-laws regularly drive there from Jersey for olives, cheese, etc.

Jay Jaffe

3:12

mmm that sounds good

3:12

Who is the odd man out in Chicago when Kyle Hendricks comes back in about a month?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

has anyone ever learned that chicken-counting like this is just foolish? I want to go back a few weeks and ask the Mets fan who wanted to trade Carrasco so Peterson could have a rotation spot what he thinks of that rotation's depth right now.

The reality is a guy coming back from a capsule tear surgery à la Hendricks is just as likely to be the odd man out. Even if he is healthy and pitching well, the chances are very high that somebody else from the starting five will land on the IL before the crowd becomes unwieldy. That's pitching for you.

Nick

3:15

Thoughts on Tylor Megill ROS?

Jay Jaffe

3:16

If he stays in the rotation i'll remember to spell his first name with an O. We've seen some promising stuff out of him and I think he's going to be pretty important in such a fragile rotation

Tony Gwynn

3:17

Hi Jay! Percentage chance Trayce Thompson maintains over .790 OPS this year? Anyhting to see here? Or turning back into pumpkin imminent?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

I think he's for real, made some changes in his mechanics and approach that keyed last year's breakout (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trayce-thompson-makes-a-splash-as-the-dodg...) and projects for about a .750 OPS via ZiPS and Steamer, so maybe it's a 30-40% chance he goes better than .790 if that's the line you're drawing.

olethros

3:20

Have you heard Chuck D's new baseball themed album yet? Mostly pretty good, though he and I clearly don't see eye to eye on Pete Rose.

Jay Jaffe

3:20

I have not, but no doubt he's a real fan. Here's a link to the Bandcamp page, i might just give this a spin https://chuckdasmistachuck.bandcamp.com/album/we-wreck-stadiums

Bob-O

3:22

Do you think James Paxton will be a viable SP when he returns? 2016-2019 were some decent years for him, but seems like ages ago.

Jay Jaffe

3:22

it *was* ages ago. Just six starts since then and bad numbers, so I don't have a ton of hope he can sustain health and success. I would love to be proven wrong.

Joe

3:23

Moncada, Muncy or Bohm?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

I'd go with Moncada, easily

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