JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/8/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/8/25

Jay Jaffe

12:03

Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the latest edition of my weekly chat. I'm having some technical difficulties and need to restart my browser, so please give me a few minutes before we get up and running.

12:06

Ok, that's better.

12:08

Since it's April 8, I'll note a pair of important milestones: today marks the 51st anniversary of Hank Aaron's 715th home run, and the 50th anniversary of Frank Robinson making his debut as the first Black manager in AL/NL history.

Yesterday I wrote about the Reds' offensive struggles and some interesting developments with Elly De La Cruz's swing(s) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-reds-offense-has-been-dreadful-so-far-...

12:09

Today I've got a piece on Victor Robles' spectacular catch and subsequent shoulder injury as well as some other injuries of note: Spencer Arrighetti, Iván Herrera, Ketel Marte and Blake Snell. Should be up before this chat ends

cubs fan

12:10

I liked your article about Kyle Tucker's market price last week, but I'm curious what you'd think he'd get if (like he is so far doing, although April obviously) he matches that superhuman 8-WAR pace from last season rather than the ZIPS projections or the previous career norm (and stays healthy)

Jay Jaffe

12:13

Thanks (the piece is here for those that missed: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kyle-tuckers-walk-year-is-off-to-a-strong-...). My guess from playing around with past ZiPS projections from Dan is that a massive season from Tucker on that scale would probably raise his overall suggestion closer to the $270 million Dan predicted. As we saw with Vladito's $500 million extension, it's entirely possible — if not more probable given the likelihood of Tucker now heading the upcoming free agent class — that we'll see figures detached from mere performance projections that take it above $300. I still don't see how you get to $400 million without a whole lot of, um, departing from reality. But I'd be happy for him to get paid nonetheless.

Ryan

12:13

How good is that Jackson Merrill deal going to look for the padres by the end of the season?

Jay Jaffe

12:14

The kid is a star, and I think the Padres will be very happy they've got him locked up.

Andrew

12:15

Have the Mets moved up as one of the better pitching dev orgs in the league within the last few years? It seems like they're hyping up their pitching lab a lot lately. Have the Yankees seen a bit of a dropoff? They aren't producing arms like they used to, so is that just a matter of some bad luck or are they seeing less of an organization edge in pitching dev than they used to?

Jay Jaffe

12:19

Maybe? Looking back at the last farm system rankings on The Board (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings), the Mets have a slight overall edge in prospects graded 35+ or better, 40 to 36, but they're about even in terms of lower-end pitching prospects (35+ to 40+). Both landed one prospect in the Top 100, with the Mets' Brandon Sproat at #24 (55 FV) and the Yankees' Will Warren at #66 (50-FV). Eric Longenhagen obviously has a better handle on this stuff though, so I'm just spitballing.

20longyears

12:19

Suppose you're King of Cooperstown for a day and you can induct as many people in the Executive/Pioneer category as you like, but to make space, you need to remove one previously inducted hall-of-famer (any category) in exchange for each. Who are you adding to Hall, and who is out?

Bob

12:19

Do you think Lefty O'Doul should be in the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe

12:19

Two fun ones that go hand in hand, as I could be convinced to include O'Doul based upon his role in bringing baseball to Japan

Hold that thought, lunch has arrived...

12:25

I think Id start by tossing Bowie Kuhn out of the Hall, as he was on the wrong side of just about every major issue of note during his tenure (though he actually did OK with an end run that helped the Hall figure out it needed to grant full status to Negro Leagues figures instead of a separate-but-equal display). Let's put Bill White in, as he was important in a long career as a player, pioneering broadcaster, and executive https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c....

Let's bump Bud Selig out as well, and add Gus Greenlee, who owned the Pittsburgh Crawfords, founded the second Negro National League and served as president, and built Greenlee Field, one of the few ball parks owned by a Negro league team.

12:27

And sure, let's go with O'Doul instead of... Fred Lindstrom, just one of many players with inflated stats from short careers in the 1920s and '30s who benefitted from being a former teammate of Frankie Frisch. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/19799/prospectus-hit-a...

12:28

I could go on all day like this, but let's move on

Eric

12:29

Does Ben Rice have a chance to stick as starter for the Yankees. He was never on the prospect radar, despite putting up good stats in the minors (albeit usually old for the league), so he seems to have come out of nowhere

Jay Jaffe

12:31

I think so. As a prospect, he was downgraded because of his defense at catcher, but that's no longer a problem. He's not going to keep hitting .333/.471/.704, but he did give his swing an overhaul that's added about 3.5 mph to his swing speed. That's not just a matter of getting hit-lucky so far, that's a player who has upgraded significantly

Lord Thunder

12:32

How far away was Billy Pierce from getting HOF consideration?

Jay Jaffe

12:33

I was pretty lukewarm on him when he was on the 2022 Golden Days ballot, though he was a better candidate than Jim Kaat, who was elected — not only in terms of his statistics but his competition, as the 50s are comparatively bereft of Hall-caliber starters while the '60s and '70s were bursting with them. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-golden-days-era-committee-candidate-b...

Hunting for Hunter

12:34

Hunter looked great against the Giants last night, getting pretty close to his first Maddux (close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades, of course). Are you buying or selling Hunter Greene making another leap this year?

Jay Jaffe

12:35

Buying. I didn't really get into it in my Reds piece but he merits a closer look, as he's suddenly getting more chase, and his K% and BB% have both improved substantially.

Jason N

12:36

Tatis is looking GOOOOD. If he can pull off another Top 5 MVP season, is he back on the HoF path?

Jay Jaffe

12:38

Until a superstar who failed a PED test and was suspended is elected to the Hall by one means or another, I'm going to assume that Tatis isn't going to get in. I don't see what he could do that would cause voters to believe that he's worthy but not, say, A-Rod or Manny, to say nothing of the guys who are out due to PED connections from the pre-testing era.

Scuffy McGee

12:40

For all the money the dodgers have spent, doesn't the second half of their lineup look increasingly underwhelming?

Jay Jaffe

12:42

Eh, they've put up a 119 wRC+ without Freddie Freeman for all but three games and the main beneficiary of the playing time has been Kiké, who's not hitting. Muncy isn't hitting, and Pagés isn't either. I expect Freeman to be fine upon returning, and Muncy to come around. They've got center field options galore to cycle through in search of one who can hit. they'll be fine

Scuffy McGee

12:43

What guys slow start at the plate has you the most worried

Jay Jaffe

12:45

Mike Trout, because he's had so much trouble staying on the field and because I have anxiety even when he nicks himself shaving. Thankfully he's at .263/.391/.789 over his last five games after a 1-for-17 start.

Bob

12:46

Small sample size but the Mets bullpen and to a lesser extent their starters are off to a very good start while the offense is in an early season funk. Has the hot start by Mets pitching improved your outlook on their pitching staff in general for the remainder of the season? The bullpen is far from the dumpster fires of previous years.

Jay Jaffe

12:48

It's mostly the Braves' slow start that has improved my outlook on the Mets. The latter surpassed them in the Playoff Odds a couple days ago. But yes, the pitching has been good even without Manaea and Montas, and that bodes well.

Alex

12:49

I am an extremely dismayed Atlanta fan. My biggest fear: given their diminished level of performance over the past year-plus, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Ozzie Albies are old, gray, and ain't what they used to be. (Admittedly, Olson's hitting the ball hard without much to show for it.) Did the Braves spend away their flexibility and extend themselves into an 85-win team?

Jay Jaffe

12:51

Some of those extensions — Albies, Acuña, maybe even Harris and Strider — are far enough below market that they should have headroom to keep spending if they need to. I mean, their current payroll is just $208M, $24 short of last year's figure

12:51

any tips for reconciling our Dodger fandom with their recent... house visit?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

I'd like to subpoena all communication from ownership to everyone down the hierarchy with regards to the visit, but right now I'm absolutely livid. Even Magic Johnson and Billie Jean King have held their tongues, so I think one has to assume that folks like Dave Roberts and Mookie Betts are doing so as well.

While I make a point of watching the Dodgers' Jackie Robinson Day games every year, I will not do so this year, as the team simply hasn't done anything to live up to the ideals of the man since the Orange Oompa Loompa took office.

Bullock

12:55

Gunnar and Elly are both gonna be free agents after their age 27 season. In light of Vladito's contract, safe to assume the price of any extension for them absolutely has to start with a 3 if not a 4?

Jay Jaffe

12:57

If they're still healthy and productive, I'd assume so but given Castellini's history I'd put money on the fact that the Reds will cry poverty instead of extending Elly. I have only slightly more faith in the Orioles' new owner; i'll believe he'll spend real money when I see it.

Say Jay Kid

12:57

Just wanted to say that your HOF content is always HOF level. Cheers!

Jay Jaffe

12:57

Thank you for the kind words, and thanks to David Appelman and Meg Rowley, who have given me the platform to provide such expansive coverage.

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