JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/8/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/8/25

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Lil Yeasty

12:58

A couple years removed, how good do the Witt/Judge deals look for their respective teams? The fact that 1.25 billion dollars was just spent on two guys who will be DHing in a few years makes KC fans thrilled to have locked up Bobby when we did!

Jay Jaffe

1:01

The bill will come due down the road but right now both teams have to be ecstatic with the early returns. Who had Judge putting up the best season ever (in terms of wRC+) by an AL/NL right-handed hitter in year 2 of the deal despite a dreadful early season slump — and looking better in Year 3? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al...

1:03

by the way, Judge is at .347/.480/.775 (242 wRC+, 24 points higher than last year's full-season mark) with 61 homers in 643 PA since I wrote this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-aaron-judges-season-opening-slum...

Mr. Fister

1:04

If you were a GM and you had to choose between having Casey Mize or Jack Leiter as your last starter, who would you want, and what separates the two?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I'd go Leiter. Mize is now 28, and in his fourth season with 300ish innings under his belt, and he's been maybe slightly better than average but prone to injuries so far. Leiter is less experienced, but has better stuff (if not better command) and higher velocity. I'll bet on that if I have to choose one of the two

Surprising

1:07

Barring another Dodger wall (they will be there this year...), Judge will be 6th all time in Yankee WAR by the end of the year (he's about to pass A-Rod). Just wanted to note that for such a franchise to get up that high (in what would be like 1100 games) is pretty absurd

Jay Jaffe

1:08

1:10

This is from last Thursday, but it still holds – Judge has just begun his 10th season and is sixth among right fielders in terms of bWAR over his first 10 seasons, with just 1.5 more WAR now needed to get to third behind Henry Aaron and Mookie Betts — though as I pointed out, this doesn't capture either Babe Ruth or Stan Musial due to their work in left field during the first 10 years of their careers. Still remarkable.

For more Judge fun on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3llxabfkbn22k

Walton Dilcox

1:10

In 20 years when it really sinks in that the volume of yesteryear is way way gone, will Ben Zobrist get HoF votes? Other than Tom Glavine I can’t imagine a player others have been compared to even as much

Jay Jaffe

1:11

it's tough enough to get on an Era Committee ballot after going one-and-done; I believe Ted Simmons and Lou Whitaker are the only ones to do so. To get on one after a complete shutout would be an exponentially heavier lift, so don't hold your breath.

not the lunch guy

1:12

You can't just mention lunch without telling us what it is

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Tried the chicken shawarma platter from a new place, Holy Pita. Good stuff, A-/B+, would order again!

Tug McGraw

1:13

Aren't there probably at least a dozen OFs without jobs that are better than anything the Royals are running out there (outside of the occasional Maikel Garcia appearance)?

Jay Jaffe

1:15

Dunno about a dozen but I'd run David Peralta and J.D. Martinez, lead glove and all, out there without hesitation if they were alternatives to the Royals' current crew

Warren

1:16

Tyler Soderstrom, huh? To my untrained eye, his Savant page suggests a pretty exciting batted ball profile. What do you think of his ability to settle in as a consistent middle-of-the-order threat? Are we looking at a guy with 130 wRC+ (or more) potential, or more of a slightly above average, forgettable first-base bat?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

He was a 55-FV prospect, which definitionally puts him right between the two alternatives you suggested. He's made some very small tweaks with his stance based on the data, and hitting the ball slightly harder, but I haven't seen enough to suggest he's unlocked a new level yet

Guest

1:20

Odds that 3+ current Mets end up in the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

Very low. Lindor and Soto are on their way barring catastrophes, but I can't even come up with a plausible third candidate unless Díaz puts up another 4-5 seasons like his 2018 and '22.

Bob

1:22

Josh Gibson doesn't rank highly in JAWS. Should there be an adjustment for that?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

the adjustment is don't use JAWS for Negro Leagues players. We just don't have the same kind of volume for their stats to make me comfortable with that. I do look at WAR/162 to get a sense of the pecking order among Negro Leagues players, but it's tough even to go with that as a direct comp to AL/NL players

Smokin' Jim Leyland

1:24

The Tigers have looked pretty good so far (when not matched up against the Dodgers) - especially considering Skubal has thrown two stinkers and Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling have yet to play. Could they be better than we thought?

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Our staff (including me) picked them to win the division, while the Playoff Odds merely had them a close second to the Twins. So I think they'll be decent but not a powerhouse. Will probably take a closer look at them at some point. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-fangraphs-2025-staff-predictions/

Guest

1:27

Is this Lindor's mvp season?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Well, he's off to another slow start, and now has to outshine Soto as well as Ohtani. Not saying it won't happen — indeed, I'd love to see it, because Lindor has become one of my favorite players and personalities in the game — but that's a tall order.

Please Sell the Team, Bob

1:31

Will the Pirates ever figure out the 1st base position? It's been a revolving door of starters year after year.

Jay Jaffe

1:32

Well, they've gotten one season with at least 2.0 bWAR from a first baseman out of their last 25 so I'm gonna go ahead and say no https://stathead.com/tiny/W2TER

Smokin' Jim Leyland

1:32

Not that he's been robbed of his rightful spot in Cooperstown a la Lou Whitaker...but is Chet Lemon an underappreciated player? Career 120 wRC+ with exceptional CF defense and lots of gritty headfirst slides into first base.

Jay Jaffe

1:35

Very underappreciated. Career 124 OPS+ and 55.7 bWAR, 21st in JAWS among center fielders.

I made an offhand reference to Lemon a couple weeks ago without realizing that he's dealing with some serious health issues after suffering a stroke in 2021 https://www.freep.com/picture-gallery/sports/mlb/tigers/2024/08/29/for...

Such a bummer.

Settle a Debate...

1:36

How low does Luis Arraez's batting average have to get over the course of a whole season before he's considered unrosterable? He offers literally NOTHING outside of batting average.

Jay Jaffe

1:37

at .279 while playing a bad 1B, he's right about at that line but it's still early. Not only has he not barreled a single ball in 48 PA, he hasn't struck out either.

Jerry Garcia

1:38

Why do the Rockies?

Jay Jaffe

1:38

i guess it's because they at least have a great ballpark, so they keep doing.

Jerry Garcia

1:38

Oops..why do the Rockies refuse to play young dynamic talent without obstructing with replacement level journeymen?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Oh, well, now that you put it that way, it's because they're completely adrift and will remain so as long as Monfort owns the team.

Roman

1:39

Re Tatis and the HOF, not to disagree with your overall point, but all of the other tainted stars got caught (or like Bonds and Clemens are presumed to have used) later in their careers, opening the possibility that they were using earlier on. If enough of Tatis's value comes post-ban, maybe voters will assume that was done without 'roids

Jay Jaffe

1:41

Eh, we have pretty well-documented evidence regarding the timelines of when they began using. And neither of them did something as stupid as injuring themselves in a motorcycle accident and squandering the rostering of Juan Soto.

Guest

1:43

Need an SP and the three options I see on the waiver wire (deep league) are Walker Buehler, Martin Perez, and Eduardo Rodriguez - all with a sluggish start to 2025. I think Walker may be toast. I was leaning Perez, but now I'm thinking E-Rod based on FG projections. Who's the best of the subpar choices?

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