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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/9/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
The conclusions should be regarded as preliminary, and i'd like to see an April-to-April comparison but with last season not starting until late July, that's not an option anyway
2:38
But what we're seeing is competing forces at work via the lower COR and higher drag, and I can imagine that if you throw weather into the equation it's very difficult to figure out how all of that fits together
Quarantino Martinez
2:38
As a Yankee-watcher, are you concerned about any of the bats (Gleybar, Stanton, Hicks) that slept last year and seem still sleepy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
No. I'd be more worried about Gleyber's viability as a shortstop
bosoxforlife
2:39
Did the Atlantic League ever get around to trying the 62' pitching rubber. This TTO is getting more difficult to watch every day and velocity is clearly a huge part of the equation.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
No, they scrapped what was to be a mid-2019 change. I think it's worth trying but can understand why no pitchers want to play guinea pig
Zach
2:41
Am I crazy to say that Corbin Burnes might be the second best pitcher in baseball
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
Holy hell is his stuff nasty. In writing about his duel with Berríos from last Saturday I learned how dominant he is with two strikes: he yielded a .136 xwOBA in such counts, lowest in the majors https://blogs.fangraphs.com/berrios-and-burnes-dazzle-in-rare-double-n...
2:44
and since then he had another start on the same level. I think he'll be in the conversation about top pitchers this year so long as he stays healthy
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:44
Wouldn't moving the mound back cause massive increases in walk rates? I don't see how that's the solution to solving the TTO "problem"
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
The idea is that it will reduce velocities, but you're right in that there's a lot we don't know about pitcher control at that distance and how easily pitchers will adapt. My worry is that they hurt their arms from trying to regain that velo at a longer distance
Vermont boy
2:45
Was the trade for Odor the craziest move this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
Eh, i can sort of see the logic in it in that the Yankees feel like they need to replenish their stock of LH power and Odor probably makes more sense for them once Voit returns than does Jay Bruce. It seems like they gave up a lot in talent — an actual prospect and a usable bench piece — but he costs them quite literally nothing. I'd imagine they won't be attached to him for very long if the results aren't there
Vlad's Dad
2:47
Hi Jay, love all the HOF work. I'm sure you've touched on it in the past but do you think the likes of Fernando, Chan-Ho Park, and even Sadharu Oh deserve to be enshrined in Cooperstown? I'm of the opinion that some players did enough for the international popularity of the game that regardless of their career numbers (in Oh's case, having no major league career) make them worthy of enshrinement.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I was talking about something along these lines with Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, who prodded me to do this piece while working on one of his own. I think there's a case to be made for the likes of Fernando and Nomo especially. It's the NATIONAL Baseball Hall of Fame, so I'm not sure a player like Oh should qualify, but on the other hand, Lefty O'Doul, who helped spread baseball to Japan, would. My idea would be to create a Modern Pioneer designation that could incorporate players and other innovators such as Bill James, Pete Palmer, Sean Forman, Dr. Frank Jobe, and so on.
Estevão
2:50
the difference between Bobby Abreu and Tim Raines is HOF hype. great case of a Hall of Fame-ish caliber player that's dismissed like his stats wouldn't call for
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
there's about 10 wins of difference between Raines and Abreu, which isn't trivial; in fact, it's the difference between being above or below the JAWS standard at their positions, but you're right that Abreu was underappreciated relative to his talents.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:53
Over/under of 0.5 pitchers suspended this season for using foreign substances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
I'll take the over and assume that Bauer is about to be the first.
Matt Arnold
2:54
Will we ever see anything approaching 2019 from Keston Hiura again?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
I think his 140 wRC+ in about half a season of playing time was overstated but I and many observers who are a lot better at talent evaluation think he can be an above-average hitter. Now, whether he can live up to the offensive expectations for a first baseman might be another matter.
mercedes
2:56
Will Yermin get many C starts for the Sox this year? AKA is he a passable defender?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
Doubtful. Eric Longenhagen gave him a 20 grade for fielding while writing, "...he can’t catch, nor can he really play first base..." Zack Collins, by comparison, drew a 35 grade last year and has already caught a couple of times so I think we can see which way this is going
Travis
3:00
Does Acuna win the MVP when he gets 50/50 this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
if he gets to 50/50, that hook would be irresistible to most voters
bosoxforlife
3:00
With the understanding that moving the mound back creates other situations, the present explosion of K's and the resulting return to 1968 levels of offense asks for something to be at least tried.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I'm more in favor of tinkering with the margins of the existing strike zone, which is a time-honored way of restoring the batter/pitcher balance, but let's not overdo the 1968 hyperbole — batting averages may be similar but scoring rates were 1.23 runs (36%) higher last year than '68.
Will Kenneally
3:05
What are your thoughts on Joe Musgrove? Him and Burnes are my 2 favorite guys to watch right now. Musgrove bumping up his K% by 11 points was nuts in 2020. Do you think he could be the best pitcher in San Diego by the end of the year or am I crazy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
I haven't seen much of him. Big strikeout increase, as you say, but also a 9.6% walk rate and so a 3.42 FIP. I don't see him as ready to surpass Darvish or Snell if those guys are up to their usual high standards
Guest
3:07
Dom Smith's U-turn in popularity among Mets fans since his rocky first couple of stints in the majors is pretty incredible. Luis Rojas (and the front office) should probably have read the room better and started him on opening day in spite of matchup data, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
His turn in popularity almost exactly follows his turn in offensive production, which is hardly mysterious. I'm glad he's shown himself to be a very good hitter but I think obsessing over whether he should have been in the Opening Day lineup at this juncture is pretty silly.
Jeff
3:09
Anyone wearing their shocked face that Kris Bryant is, in fact, still amazing at baseball? Unbelievable how that guy has been dragged through mud because of money, and yes it's the money
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
Nobody's shocked. Certainly not me, and not the Cubs, whatever their previous posturing.
Tommy
3:10
I got my second shot yesterday as well! not feeling to bad.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
wohooo!
Josiah
3:11
Jay, Dodgers get their rings today, some fans still view the accomplishment as less than. This obviously ridiculous considering dodgers played the same regular season as everyone else and had to maneuver an extra round that no one has ever had to before. This is just sour grapes from these fans, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
yes
3:12
no matter who wins a championship, there will always be somebody to piss on it.
3:13
I think there might be a touch more validity to the complaint about the Dodgers if they weren't so clearly the best team during the regular season and an historically great team over a longer stretch of time. Their championship wasn't the product of a short schedule and a fluky run, it was quality winning out.
Yadi's HoF Jacket
3:14
What do you think of the Cardinals performance thus far?
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